With 75 million shares that can be issued surely if Would be a good move to take over Landsdowne (Share swap) and issue the remaining 55m to Sequa for example for lets say 80m euros. This Money could be used for Barryroe and Spanish Point drills. Sequa Would Have approx. 26 % of Providence. A good result On Barryroe and or Spanish point Would leave Providence in a very strong position hearing into 2017/18 given That Oil prices Will fall as supply drops. Thereafter a very likely take over target. Providence thereafter could choose to sell individual assets, be taken over, oil for Farm outs or finance to develop oil fields
Providence needs to cut costs to the bone. Salaries should have been reduced because these unnecessary costs put the financial viability at risk. Situation with melody finance needs to be sorted out and clarified. Providence needs to hold on in 2016 for long term shareholders to benefit. It would be a disgrace if irresponsible spending and wastage forced the company into selling assets for next to nothing. Lets hope we get some transparency and clarity from the management soon.
The over supply will eventually be drawn down. Jimmy fails to mention natural decline rates in Conventional fields calculated at approx. 6.75% across all types of field (Onshore, offshore, conventional and non-conventional). Not to mention shale and Canadian tar sands. We also have rising deman predicted to be an average of 1m barrels per day up to 2020. Thus by 2020 the world will need approximately 100m barrels of oil a day. So with virtually all projects being cancelled for 2015 and 2016 i.e. 200bn worth and 750bn of future projects on hold many expect a short fall of 20m barrels of oil per day by 2019 unless prices improve. So We can all throw out figures and say what we think Barryroe is worth. What matters is getting someone to put the cash down. The rewards for a potential investor could be huge. The investment given how costs have dropped for Rig day rates is reasonably modest given the nature of this business. You would do the drill and flow tests for 30-40m max. If I were an investor I would invest the money directly into Providence and take a percentage of company. As mentioned before Providence has 75m shares it can issue. If it gives 20m to Landsdowne in a 1:7 share swap it can sell 55m to an investor for lets say 80m (i.e. 25.6 % of company. Thereafter they have cash to do appraisal drill on Barryroe and Jimmy´s favorite (Spanish Point). Thereafter if successful the company would be ripe for a Takeover bid.
********** ********** ********** ********** ********** ********** ********** ********As a reminder Barryroe
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Post-well analysis, in conjunction with the new 3D seismic data set, led to a substantial upgrade in the field size to over 1 billion barrels in place (2C). Subsequent work on multiple development concepts, together with detailed engineering studies on recovery factors, led to estimated 2C recoverable resources of over 300 million barrels of oil from the two main tested reservoir intervals.
In April 2013, a Competent Persons Report (“CPRâ€) was issued by Netherland Sewell & Associates Inc. (NSAI) confirming the previously published Providence figures on the main basal sandstone reservoir. In conjunction with a previous audit carried out by RPS Energy on the overlying secondary Middle Wealden reservoir, the total upgraded resource base at Barryroe is as follows:
Basal Wealden STOIIP (NSAI) 1C (MMBO) 338 2C (MMBO) 761 3C (MMBO) 1,135
Basal Wealden Recoverable (NSAI) 1C (MMBO) 85 2C (MMBO) 266 3C (MMBO) 511
Total 1C (MMBO) 89 2C (MMBO) 311 3C (MMBO) 624
Note: The table above excludes recoverable solution gas (i.e. 207 BCF or 34.5 MMBOE in the 2C case)
Further incremental resource potential has also been identified in logged hydrocarbon bearing intervals within stacked Lower Wealden and Purbeckian sandstones, which the Company estimates contain total associated P90, P50 & P10 in place oil resources of 456 MMBO, 778 MMBO and 1,165 MMBO, respectively. In February 2014, the area of SEL 1/11 was increased by c. 160 km2 to provide for possible extensions of the Barryroe oil field beyond the area previously licensed
Exola is owed by Providence and Kinsale Energy has passed 60% to Exola in return for a drill within three years. So nobody is selling anything to themselves. This means that if Barryroe extends into this zone Exola (i.e. Providence) will be taking advantage. The interesting part is that Landsdowne has nothing to do with Exola. This means that presently anything discovered or extracted from this zone would not be of benefit to Landsdowne. For Landsdowne not to participate leads to the possibility that Exola or Providence may buy Landsdowne.Thereafter Exola could be partly or totally sold or perhaps the likes of Sequa could take an equity position in Exola or Providence.
There is obviously something moving here. Think Providence will take over Landsdowne (1:7) share swap and Sequa will buy into Providence or Exola thereafter.
Agree totally on Salaries. If They had cut costs a couple of years ago we Would not Have the Melody Finance issue worrying us this Year. Cannot understand Pagent and institutions. They must Have seem something they are happy about