sharing's Ratings

PANIC GKP by sharing on 13 Mar 2014 16:22

Price at rating: 121.00, now:

Investec / CANTOR Sam Wahab Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd Given GKP’s significant updated reserve backing, the company will likely look to access the debt market under more favourable terms. Whilst the CPR report represents a conservative estimate based solely on reserves which are being targeted with 26 wells representing less than 25% of all wells currently envisaged for the Shaikan development, we adjust our valuation taking account of this area only. On this basis, we reiterate our BUY recommendation but reduce our TP to 183p (from 235p).

BUY SER by sharing on 12 Mar 2014 13:48

Price at rating: 0.22, now:

Sefton Resources – Kansas Assets Valued at $100 million. Speculative Buy with 9p Targetr Sefton Resources announced that Dr Nafi Onat had valued the majority of its Kansas assets at $100.1 million. The Independent Competent Persons Report was commissioned last year and provides transparency and an evaluation of the potential of the existing and newly acquired assets.r Dr Onat’s geotechnical review and economic evaluation covered both conventional (sandstone, limestone and dolomite) and unconventional (coalbed methane gas) prospects in Anderson, Franklin and Leavenworth counties, Kansas. The oil price and operating costs were kept constant throughout, but the gas price began at $4 per mcf and increased by 10% pa until reaching a ceiling of $6.50 per mcf.r Excluded from the report were the McLouth and Burgess formations in Leavenworth County, together with the transportation of 3 rd party gas through TEG Mid-Continent’s (100% owned subsidiary of Sefton) pipeline. TEG is commissioning a geologic study on McLouth and Burgess to allow for the inclusion of these prolific formations in any future updated economic assessment.r So on to the results and the Anderson County Squirrel / Bartlesville oil (prospective) resources were estimated at 1,747,897 barrels, producing cumulative cash flows of $73.2 million during its life and a NPV10 (net present value, 10% annual discount rate) of $48.4 million.r The Anderson County Warner Sand (prospective) gas resources were estimated at 15.7 Bcf (billion cubic feet), producing cumulative cash flows of $32.9 million and a NPV10 of $20.5 million.r The Anderson & Franklin Counties coalbed methane (contingent) gas resources were estimated at 32.5 Bcf, producing cumulative cash flows of $105.9 million and a NPV10 of $28.1 million.r The Leavenworth County Cholla coalbed methane (possible) gas resources were estimated at 0.53 Bcf, producing cumulative cash flows of $2.2 million and a NPV10 of $1.2 million.r The remaining coalbed methane (contingent) gas resources in Leavenworth County were estimated at 2.3 Bcf, producing cumulative cash flows of $6.2 million and a NPV10 of $1.9 million.r Combining these results, total oil resources stand at 1.75 million barrels, gas resources at 51.03 Bcf, cumulative cash flows at $220.4 million and NPV10 at $100.1 million. As the resource classifications confirm, confidence in these quantities is low (contingent, prospective, possible), but given this is only the first assessment, we would expect Sefton to lift its classification over time.r The two other pieces of news released on the 12th were the receipt of an Outstanding Oil Field Lease and Facility Award for Sefton’s 2010 operation of the Tapia oil field (California) and the partial completion of its acquisition of acreage (leases, wellbores, equipment and technical data) proximate to the LAGGS pipeline. Of the $200,000 purchase price for the acreage, due diligence has been completed on $108,681 worth, and this partial acquisition was completed on the 29th of April. In a separate acquisition, TEG Mid-Continent paid Cholla $35,000 for a computerised database of proprietary well data and shallow gas prospects in the Leavenworth area, print maps, cross sections and a proprietary report detailing all prospects, geology, and engineering in the area.r Without the existence of any previous third party analysis of Sefton’s Kansas assets, few would have attributed any value to them. However, as the spike in Sefton’s share price demonstrates, Dr Onat’s work has been well received and while the current resource classifications are on the speculative side, there is undoubted value in quantifying what has been found.r Having already valued Sefton’s Californian assets at £12.7 million, even if we attribute only 20% of Dr Onat’s Kansas valuation ($100.1 million) to our analysis, this adds another £12.5 million to our valuation and lifts our target price from 5p to 9p after factoring in the dilution from the equity issue on the 28th of March. Further upside remains in the enhanced recovery techniques being evaluated in California and of course the monetisation of its Kansas pipeline infrastructure and further resource finds.

Score: 26.25

BUY GGP by sharing on 03 Mar 2014 13:51

Price at rating: 0.50, now:

Gold miner shares spiked sharply higher as investors scrambled to find safe havens as the crisis in Ukraine worsened.r r Russia’s seizure of Crimea over the weekend and deployment of thousands of troops to the Ukraine province has led to fears of a possible war in the country after the new government in Ukraine’s capital Kiev mobilised its armed forces in responser r Western governments have condemned the Russians and its president Vladimir Putin, but markets are waiting to see what action they take to try both to support the new Ukraine government and also to force the Russians to withdraw.r r Spot gold price jumped US$22 to US$1,344 despite gains for US dollar, which traditionally moves in an opposite direction to the price of the metal.r r Stocks were hit, however, with the Russian stock market dropping 10% at its open and London and other European bourses shedding about 2%.r r The exceptions were the gold miners, with all of the London-listed majors registering good gains with the exception of Russia-focused Petropavlosk (LON:POG).r r The miner was already under pressure from the gold price weakness last year and is seen as exposed to risk the of economic sanctions being introduced on Russia.r r POG shares fell 9% to 84.63p while fellow Russia miner Polyus (LON:POLY) shed 8%.r r The best of the performers were those with operations far way from the Ukraine, where sector leader and FTSE 100 member Randgold Resources (LON:RRS) added 3.8% to 4,922p.r r Mexican silver and gold miner Fresnillo (LON:FRES) edged higher to 955p while African Barrick (LON:ABG), like Randgold also focused on Africa, gained 4.5% to 294p.r r Among the smaller caps, producers fared the best with Philippines-based Medusa (LON:MML) a stand-out with a 12% rise to 125p.r r Greatland Gold plc (LON:GGP) was flat despite analysts talk of a major company update was very close.r Sula Iron & Gold plc ( LON:SULA ) Rose on low volume despite a rumoured funding loan agreement at 5p with an update imminent.r Centamin (LON:CEY) rose by 2% to 56p while Metals Exploration (LON:MTL), also in the Philippines, was 11% higher though it announced a writ against the company had been dismissed.

Score: 62.50

BUY SULA by sharing on 03 Mar 2014 13:51

Price at rating: 3.08, now:

Gold miner shares spiked sharply higher as investors scrambled to find safe havens as the crisis in Ukraine worsened.r r Russia’s seizure of Crimea over the weekend and deployment of thousands of troops to the Ukraine province has led to fears of a possible war in the country after the new government in Ukraine’s capital Kiev mobilised its armed forces in responser r Western governments have condemned the Russians and its president Vladimir Putin, but markets are waiting to see what action they take to try both to support the new Ukraine government and also to force the Russians to withdraw.r r Spot gold price jumped US$22 to US$1,344 despite gains for US dollar, which traditionally moves in an opposite direction to the price of the metal.r r Stocks were hit, however, with the Russian stock market dropping 10% at its open and London and other European bourses shedding about 2%.r r The exceptions were the gold miners, with all of the London-listed majors registering good gains with the exception of Russia-focused Petropavlosk (LON:POG).r r The miner was already under pressure from the gold price weakness last year and is seen as exposed to risk the of economic sanctions being introduced on Russia.r r POG shares fell 9% to 84.63p while fellow Russia miner Polyus (LON:POLY) shed 8%.r r The best of the performers were those with operations far way from the Ukraine, where sector leader and FTSE 100 member Randgold Resources (LON:RRS) added 3.8% to 4,922p.r r Mexican silver and gold miner Fresnillo (LON:FRES) edged higher to 955p while African Barrick (LON:ABG), like Randgold also focused on Africa, gained 4.5% to 294p.r r Among the smaller caps, producers fared the best with Philippines-based Medusa (LON:MML) a stand-out with a 12% rise to 125p.r r Greatland Gold plc (LON:GGP) was flat despite analysts talk of a major company update was very close.r Sula Iron & Gold plc ( LON:SULA ) Rose on low volume despite a rumoured funding loan agreement at 5p with an update imminent.r Centamin (LON:CEY) rose by 2% to 56p while Metals Exploration (LON:MTL), also in the Philippines, was 11% higher though it announced a writ against the company had been dismissed.

Score: 22.50