lol - not at all but then again that is eta in 2021. I hope I will have the will to live by then but I fear most on III will have moved onto the a new plane of existence. lol
This small print from the report worries me though... This report has been commissioned by Gulf Keystone Petroleum and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally
but it goes on to say...Our base case valuation at Shaikan implies a recovery factor of 18% (from the pMean OIP of 13.7bnbbls), made up of 12% from FDP (250mb/d) production and 6% from moving to the 400mb/d plateau. This is lower than our previous long-term recovery factor of over 20% and the average of Genel’s CPR expectations for its reservoirs and the global fractured carbonate average (26%). As such, we also include optimistic cases where the plateau rates are up to 500mb/d and the implied recovery factor is closer to the global average. At this stage, we are reluctant to model any rates above this, although we fully acknowledge the recovery factors could be higher in the fullness of time.
Recovery factors are critical It is important to note that a 10-year plateau of 250mb/d – our take on the field development plan (FDP) – only implies a recovery factor for Shaikan as a whole of 12%. This is against the 26% average seen in a global fractured carbonate study and the average of the competent person’s report (CPR) estimate for Genel’s Kurdistan assets. As such, we see the FDP as just a start, but with so many things to be determined, confirmation of the true upside for Shaikan may take some time
I think it was the last Edison report that stated something like that.
R factor depends on who is doing to recovery and via what methods. I think there was a report to says if it was GKP it would be as low as 10 - 12%. If a NOC or IOC then it could be as high as 20%+.
Do we really think that the likes for the M&G funds will let the SP tank to less than 120s after all this time of being zip lipped? I hope not else heads will roll in a EGM I feel.
I do feels that whatever number we release, it will be vetted by the KRG at this critical point in time, hence will not be the true number GKP might have wanted to release.
Ok so go lower then say 1P @ 300 - 500mill. What would be the $$$ price? Seen on III a number of $3 per barrel being thrown around, but this then implies that we are overvalued 