RE: CPS Deal: eggtastico you are right $ 30 Mio of financing over 3 years and then another Tranche becomes due of about $ 36 Mio. This can be financed and if financed, then it is huge value. So this is the reason why I said on one of my previous post, the first announcment has no value if it stays that way, it will have to Trigger the next 2 tranches.
CPS Deal. It could work, but then WRN would have to finance the whole deal. Step by step. So the first Tranche would be at a deep Discount but then tranches 2 and 3 and here we are tallking about roughly $ 70 Mio would have to be at the market, best trough a convertible. Can be done, has been done before and will be done again. But of course first you have to start and the way I read, they are in contact with institutional Investors will to finance the first Tranche and I would then assume, they could as well finance the rest. Without CPS who has value and I have studied more than 58 pages from this deal, WRN will have it hard to stay with the stock Price where they are presently. Markets pay for earnings and expected earnings and markets pay for proven reserves and once in production the proven reserves become even more valuable. Conclusion: I will buy this stock if they do a deal with CPS and if not, this stock is overpriced by more than 50 %. IMHO
FRANKFURT: Some are still talking about being listed. They have been listed last week.
Today they tried to Balance the market. But as I mentioned before; With 39 Mio Options with a strike of 0.05 and 0.11 the capitalisation is beyond fair value.
FAIR Value: Those talking about fair value around £ 2 or £ 2.50 are forgetting a total of roughly 39 Mio Warrants with strikes of 0.05 and 0.11. If we take this into consideration then we would not talk about roughly 19 Mio shs. but down the road 58 Mio shs and if we translate this back then the stock Price should rather be around 0.70 - 0.90 All other things are dreams and we all know the market always goes back to reality.
One does not have to look Forward to the Frankfurt listing, as they already were listed last week under the Symbol 095. By the way on Friday was not trading in Frankfurt they had reunificatin
Taking this from the financials: In addition warrants to subscribe for 35,090,378 ordinary shares at a price of 5p each are outstanding at 31 March 2014. These warrants are exercisable between 6 August 2017 and 6 September 2018 subject to shareholder approval of a share capital re-organisation. This would mean, that within 3 years the present O/S would be diluted by 184 % because somebody is sitting on Warrants at a price of 0.05 which is equivalent to £ 1’754’518.—However at present the intrinsic value of those Warrants is roughly 35 Mio. And then there is another one, smaller but as well heavy: As at 31 March 2014 options were outstanding in respect of a total of 3,935,671 new ordinary 10p shares exercisable at a price of 11p. These options are exercisable until 30 August 2018. This would mean, that for the execution of those options roughly 433.000 £ will be paid versus an intrinsic value of today of £ 4.7 Mio. So, when the company during the restructuring cycle saw the value, why then such Warrants? Taking the 35 Mio Warrants and 3.9 Mio Warrants we are talking about a coming dilution within 3 years of 39 Mio shares or 205 % dilution. When doing the mathematics it is always wise to read the balance sheet. Now you can come and say, yes but this will only happen in 2017/2018 then I have to tell you, it doesn’t matter because those Warrants at £ 0.05 and £ 0.11 are in the books. So it matters when you talk about valuation. 19 Mio shs. times 1.30 = 24.7 Mio Capitalisation 57.9 Mio shs times 1.30 = 75 Mio Capitalisation Rather a big difference, isnt’it?
Buying versus Selling Power: Friday showed a buying power of 811.000 Shares versus sellingpower of 640.000 Shares. Roughly 762.000 were so-called ping pont trades. What does it mean all: If a stock with a stronger buying power is collapsing then it is obvious that the so-called up-tick trades took overhand. Besides Stop-losses - shorting with up ticks.