What else is new......26 analysts rated Genel, of which 22 a buy;3 a hold; and 1 sell, average PT 720....does not help at all, hope they start issuing Sell ratings soon so that price can go up!
Genel Energy (Buy, 700p TP): H115 Results Reaction DB View: With the Kurdish government withholding export payments for c. 70% of sales volumes, this was never going to be a stellar 6 months for Genel's cash generation. However, the extent to which the c. 30% of volumes directed into the domestic market has acted as a counterbalance is impressive, particularly in light of the lower commodity and discounted local pricing. All told, nil operating cash flow from what is a small portion of overall sales demonstrates the reliance of Genel's low-cost portfolio, and ultimately, the operating leverage one can expect from payment normalisation and a higher commodity. On the numbers themselves, data points for H1 on production (88.8kb/d, +41% Y/Y), revenue ($199m, +4% Y/Y) and net debt ($216m, up from $2.3m) are consistent with July's trading statement. Cash revenue from domestic sales totalled $50m, resulting in free cash negative of $212m through H1. The outlook is encouraging with Genel expecting oil export payments to resume from September, as per the KRG announcement earlier this week. Guidance for 2015 has been maintained for production (90-100kb/d), revenue ($350-400m at $50) and capex ($150-200m). Operationally, development of the high-margin Miran and Bina Bawi oil resource remains consistent with our expectations (2H16), albeit commitment to this is likely dependant on the pace of normalisation of export payments over the next 12 months. Genel remains our preferred Kurdistan-focused stock in the sector at what we believe is an attractive valuation (0.45x P/NAV, discounting $45/bbl long term Brent).
anybody knows how to follow the webcast scheduled for 1030? No link on comp website yet
Have called with Genel IR department and they denied having ceased operations in Kurdistan!
In 2014 Genel produced 69k bbl/d, so this means 25.185m barrels in total. Their price realisations averaged 73/bbl. This would mean revenues of 1.8b which is obviously incorrect as it was 520m. I am confused, what mistake am I making, hope somebody can help me out!!!
Hi All, what a rough day again for the stock!! This Greek Saga and falling oil prices arent helping! Quick question, hope somebody can help me out. How do you calculate the revenue for Genel? In 2014
what would you guys state as the major differences between DNO and Genel? They share for example the Tawke field, but valuation of both stocks is entirely different. Consensus 2016 Multiples for Genel; P/E 14.7, P/TB 1.13, EV/EBITDA 4.95. Consensus Multiples 2016 DNO; P/E 6.1, P/TB 3.3, EV/EBITDA 3.1. For the time being both companies have strong balance sheets, obviously they need to get paid for deliveries to keep it that way. Both gross and EBITDA margins for Genel are way better than for DNO, but the market is valuing DNOs assets at a big premium to Genels assets when looking to P/B. However on earnings multiples Genel is trading at a premium, seems a bit contradictory at first sight. Can somebody help me out? Looking at analyst targets, DNO can almost double but somehow I am more attracted to Genel!
@ Canillasboy, where did you read or hear 'high probability of disposal of IRC in 2015'?
