PS Sully, if you find anything else, don't post it, I need to buy more shares this week while the price is so low 
Good morning Sully, thanks for the link, JR
Shadow, hopefully it's already been snapped up. But the current share price reflects the risk a deal won't be done. If a deal is done there's still a risk that the field never sees production or produces less than estimated..
Mmmm, agree with you and also your previous comment about current share price. Until we get a deal done, we have no guidance on which to value the current share price. All we are doing is speculating but I still think if a deal is done then we're talking hundreds of millions and if production reached then billions.
Godot, you're looking at assigning a long term production value to the share. My sights are set more on short term. In any case your figures are too conservative. Total production in your scenario is only 146m barrels. The NSAI estimate including gas was 346m. Also €5 per barrel is too low. If we take average price of oil over life of field at €80 per barrel and lifting cost at €15, then margin would be €65 per barrel. The total margin over life of field would be €19 billion. Take out development, maintenance and end of life cleanup of €1.75 billion leaves €17.25 billion to be shared amongst whoever the partners are. As I am totally unfamiliar with oil industry cost structure, please take the above with a pinch of salt. But given that Barryroe is expected to generate 4.5 billion for the Irish government, the above seems credible. That is why I say Barryroe is worth hundreds of millions now as there is risk in developing it, but potentially billions down the line. Would welcome any feedback on this.
Spuddy, what do you reckon the monetary value of the free carry is worth? Thanks JR
I think the deal was done last summer (pre Exola news) and we're waiting on final signing once Sequa have bond issue wrapped up. Jimmy looks at things from a technical point of view and highlights the uncertainties. From a financial point of view uncertainty equals risk and that is why Barryroe is only worth hundreds of millions now instead of billions.
Godot, keep the faith, don't fall under the shadow of Shadow's pessimism, I firmly believe deal will be signed start of February.