evertonhs

Guesstimate, your reading seems to be a good summary of the risks. Mine is: 1) Cancelation of the whole exploration area without any compensation - 5% (this would severely impact FDI into Egypt); 2) Cancelation of the whole exploration area with full refund of Capex - 20%; 3) Cancelation of the larger exploration area (Centamin is allowed to keep the 2.5 sq Km area) - 20%; 4) Eventual dismissal of the case – 55%. I know we all have different long term SP projection for Centamin. I prefer to the method based on the expected NPV of future cash flows, so assuming case 4) above, with a 50% profit share with the Government after costs, I estimate around 200p peak SP. If we have case 3) I do not expect much reduction on the peak SP as most of the operation is within the approved area, with enough reserves for some 20 years, so a peak SP of 180p would be in the cards. In case 1) the SP is almost zero (Centamin would still have assets outside Egypt, but not producing yet) and in case 2) we should receive some 50p-80p per share. That being said, the company seems underpriced to me and that is why I am in a long position. The risk weighted price for me is somewhat higher than 150p. Hopefully I will not need to sell before this share delivers on its potential.

Hope, it should be ok, depending on the result of the cc...