Kier Group - Re: KIE Stream Log - Zippy, the Motley Fool writers...

Zippy, the Motley Fool writers are not familiar with Kier. They haven't done detailed assessment; instead they look at a few metrics and then spout an opinion. Their articles are riddled with mistakes and misconceptions. For example, they don't seem to understand the difference between the group's net debt and its average monthly debt. They don't understand what brought the Kier share price down in the first place, and they certainly don't understand where Kier is now in terms of its volume of business, ranking and capability in UK construction, nor the sector as a whole. My view is that the business isn't even severely damaged, despite the fact that the last finance director allowed accounting schemes to give the impression of greater cash availability, and consequently far too much was paid out in dividends, and not enough done to maintain a healthy cash balance. The CFO has gone; money has been raised through a rights issue; cancelling the dividend altogether (saving about £60m in payouts); cutting costs and selling assets (property, a business in Australia). My view is that Kier will get back to about £6 by the end of this year, and much higher next year when they start talking about reinstating a dividend (a very small one, I hope). I'm not saying what you should do; I'm just saying that I've got my own plan and it involves holding Kier at least for the medium term and maybe even longer. My target is £12, but that could be some way off.