Nanoco Group - Re: NANO Stream Log - Cris-Cloud. Does Nanoco represent good...

Cris-Cloud. Does Nanoco represent good value at current prices? Here is my take on it. There are over 200m TVs sold a year globally. Assume around 70m of these would be large enough for CFQDs. (Assuming focus is on large screen TVs initially, but if it's smaller screens as well then there is upside to my assumptions). 2 years ago heard management use the figure of $100,000 per kg of CFQD, but I'm assuming that the price has halved since then so $50,000 per kg. 70m TVs at 1g per TV = 70,000 kgs per annum. That's $3.5bn per annum. Then assume that Nanoco get 50% market share so that is $1.75bn revenue per year, which is c£1.7bn. Nanoco will take a royalty on this revenue stream, which I think will be around 15%. That gets us to £175mof revenue to Nanoco per year. Given that this is very high gross margin sales income I think a 3x sales multiple is not unreasonable so that would equate to a market cap of £525m against the current market cap of £137m. This ignores the potential of smaller screens and other market segments such as lighting, solar, and medical. Lots of assumptions in there,Mobutu I would suggest that the confirmation that Dow can manufacture significant scale will begin to lock down some of these assumptions in fact. I would advise that you use your own assumptions to arrive at your own conclusions, but by way of example even if you assume only a 20% market share for Nanoco, there is still 50% upside to the current share price. Just my personal views, and I am a shareholder, in at 96p.