BMR Mining - Re: BMR Stream Log - I take a long view...

I take a long view but see the writing on the wall...but let me start with a question: If JH can see $880m of gross value in the tailings, why did AB rubbish the balance sheet to £9m? Now I haven't managed to calculate the gross to net relationship but you'd hope it was more than 2%....so, if AB gave a hoot about existing shareholders, he would have 1. Shown how the existing asset base underpinned a 2p share price (undiluted) 2. Made clear that future capital raisings were on an open offer basis first (giving shareholders first dibbs at whether to dilute or not) 3. He would have gone after MA's London pad in St. John's wood and his palatial residence in Camps Bay South Africa......frankly - if he has asked shareholders to help with this - they might well have put their hands in their pockets.....shareholders have been raped by MA - and AB is, in my view, part of the AIM establishment who cover for each other at the expense PIs - which, of course, what AIM is structured to facilitate. That these 3 actions weren't taken must lead everyone to ask how value will be created? Let's assume for a moment that the SP might at some point equate to 50% of the gross asset value identified by JH - so $880m gross becomes $440m net / £275m - that's a 55x increase in value - you can almost hear the ramping crew shouting out the mercurial virtues of AB...But hold on..... There will at this point be at least 613,000,000 shares in circulation - I say at least because with the relative ease AB had in getting current shareholders to nod through the extra 500m shares now; it is entirely foreseeable that future additional raisings will not be resisted. If you want to see how so much confetti can be arranged go look at the history of Red Rock Resources....so, for conservatism, let's apply a range of scenarios from 500m shares to 1.5billion shares in circulation by the time the £275m valuation is reached So - with 500million shares - the BMR sp would be 55p; at 613m shares 45p; with 1billion shares 27.5p and 1.5billion 18.3p Let's assume also that the average SP existing holders, pre suspension and dilution paid was 2.25p - or 22.5p today - some will be higher others lower - but let's be clear if the company does get to 1.5billion shares - existing holders will have a long wait and never get close to breakeven And the best scenario - (i.e. 55p which would double original investors capital (hallelujah)) must be taken with a pinch of salt. There is no time determination for getting there and has so many optimistic caveats around it as to make discounting the possibility of success significantly, the prudent line of consideration So who will make money? The answer lies is in who picks up the new shares - 250million this year and at what discount and conditions they receive on issue. These will not be offered to pis but more likely to the HNW AIM network of individuals and institutions..... MTR remain an option - of course AB would have to deny this now publicly - it is not for him to announce or discuss when there is no deal on offer...and allegedly he said MTR would not be investing in BMR - maybe. Maybe not now BUT maybe when a capital raising appears they may take a different view. Look at their business model. They took a punt on New World Oil & Gas. Crucially, given MTR's business model and AB being their CFO - BMR shareholders should be rather more concerned if MTR do not participate. If AB wearing his MTR CFO hat don't see value creation in BMR from the current position, then existing BMR shareholders are truly destroyed The worst of all scenarios is to see the names YORKVILLE, CORNHILL etc associated with any placings. Their MO is to negotiate low value entry points, pump and dump and leave PIs over excited, over exposed. They are the PIs nightmare - so watch carefully Investing and speculating carries opportunity cost. But the hardest call is to realise losses and move on...it is also the realists call. Sad to say, existing pis have lost and like turkey's voted for their own extinction at the AGM. You can look mournfully at your losses or you can rethink your investment plans. I have rebalanced my portfolio and taken a view that MTR has more potential for medium value creation than BMR because 1. It has a lower market value 2. Lower number of shares today in circulation 3. Has exposure to more opportunities 4. Has a more consolidated shareholder base 5. May well turn out to be a participant in the BMR upswing - so you might regain an indirect position (may but not guaranteed) The point is AIM is a game played at the expense of PIs. The companies, NOMADs, MMs, Bulletin Boards and Absentee regulators create a facade of legitimacy. The challenge is to try and avert your gaze from what they want you to see and try and figure out what it is they are trying to do. GLA whatever you decide