So here's some maybe pointless postage stamp maths: So UKOG are predicting they could supply 30% of the UK's oil. That equates to 400,000 barrels/day, so let's assume that's their max potential daily output. At 50$ / barrel, this comes to $7.3 bn / year revenue. UKOP have a 30% stake, so their revenue would be $2.19bn / year. So now for the sake of argument let's do a like-for-like comparison with BP. Their revenue is $353 bn, putting UKOP at 0.62% the size of BP. Now UKOP's issued shares are 6.7% the size of BP's (18.26 BP vs 1.691bn UKOP). So if we took BPs current share price (457p) and pumped in those figures, that'd give a potential like-for-like (comparing revenue and shares in circulation) share price for UKOP of 30p. Smallprint: these prices and comparisons are probably utterly worthless to reality. (457 * (18.26/1.691) * (2.19/353) = 30.6p ). If this figure were remotely accurate, I guess the current price may accurately reflect the risk to potential growth, bearing in mind those above figures are based on the potential maximum output from these wells. Either way though, it stills seems like a great long term investment.
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