Tullow Oil - TLW Stream Log

Tullow Oil said to be close to selling North Sea pipeline to Independent Oil and Gas say sources

From DAVY (with the caveat that they are a broker to TLW): Our updated valuation for Tullow Oil is 255p per share (previously 337p). This adjusts for an underwritten $750m rights issue, the Uganda farm-down and guidance provided at the time of the FY2016 results. Management argues that the rights issue should give the group room to grow. We believe Tullow will need to demonstrate good capital allocation over the next cycle for the share price to outperform. The funds from the rights issue provide an opportunity to achieve this.

There is a strong chance the cuts are a ruse by the arabs to suck the shalers back into the game. Once they are all back up and running OPEC will flood the market again driving prices down and putting the shalers back out of business. Then cut again/flood again and repeat for a few cycles until shalers' banks will no longer deal and shalers are permanently bust. Conclusion: sinusoidal oil price cycles coming up over the next 3 - 4 yrs. Could TLW be caught out? Possibly, if refinancing/production targets/unforeseen issues coalesce at the bottom of the price cycle but if they can get the refi done, production stabilizes and no unknown, unknowns in between times then I’d suggest TLW look good for the long game player.

Tullow announced this morning that it has extended its Corporate (credit) Facility by an additional year. Strong appetite among lenders to participate in the Corporate Facility extension bodes well for this year’s refinancing of the larger Reserve Based Lending (RBL) facility, according to Davy.

The shale producers raison d'etre is too subject to volatility in the price - sooner or later most will sink - you can't run a business on this scale with such capital requirements and long horizons on the basis of one factor (poo) being favourable now and again. The OPEC will ramp production up and down until no-one wants to finance shale anymore. TLW is a good bet for the patient investor able to play a long game imo due to quality proven assets in a low-cost prod.n environment. Yes, it has high debt levels but compared to its earnings they are manageable... my home loan is 20 years based on my net disposable income - TLW's only about 8 years... what's the problem??

What time does trading stop today people?

Yellen knows if she raises interest rates to high it would slow down the economy

I think in the long run oil prices will rise. The short term or day to day have no I'd

Oil prices are going up world wide consumption is 95 mbpd unless the world goes into a recession.A world wide recession is the only thing I think oil prices will stay low .

TLW looks well positioned now with TEN prod.n coming on stream as long as the debt profile is managed down. For the shorters to win here TLW needed to have significant technical /operational setbacks and/or its bankers to pull the plug over the last 12 - 18 mth difficult period but neither has happened and it's largely out of the woods now with the imminent revenues from TEN. Rate it a but not without a few risks still but disproportionately large reward potential imo.