Re: ROSE Stream Log - The 190 per cent rise...

The 190 per cent rise in the share price of Rose Petroleum in the last five trading days suggests investors may have missed out on the re-rating of this US-focused oil junior. However closer inspection of an independent reserves and resource report that sparked the latest rally suggests that this may just be the beginning for a stock, which has essentially come back from the dead under new management. Respected consultant Ryder Scott estimates the group’s interests in the Mancos and Paradox shale plays in Utah could contain 1.45billion barrels of oil and 4.79 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas. The numbers have yet to be proven by drilling, but they reflect a great deal of potential. They also backed-up Rose’s initial enthusiasm for its newly acquired projects. Separately, another consultant, Christie Ward Schultz, assigned a $1.47billion valuation to the Paradox shale (via the Cane Creek project) for a 30 year life-of-field, whilst for Mancos this is estimated at $941million. Both basins are being actively developed already, and the infrastructure available is excellent with road, rail, pipeline and power all readily available. The leases, meanwhile, are also in an ideal location being only about an hour's drive to Grand Junction, which is the region's oil and gas services hub offering drill rigs, fracking equipment. Underlining the potential of this highly attractive shale play is regional player Fidelity Exploration & Production, which is owned by New York-quoted MDU Resources. Since 1963, it has produced 5.2million barrels of oil and 4.2bln cubic feet of gas from 20 wells in Cane Creek. Currently, 18 wells produce at a total average rate of 4,563 barrels a day and 2.4million cubic feet of gas. 'Given its long-term presence as well as its technical and operational expertise in the region, Fidelity is frequently used as the benchmark by which other operators are judged,' said Dougie Youngson, the oil analyst at finnCap. The real kicker to the valuation will occur when the company actually starts drilling. Rose is on record as saying it wants to be producing by the end of the year and it is expected the first well will target the Mancos using existing 2D seismic data and information culled from historic wells.