Smurfit Kappa Group - SKG Stream Log

time is running out....

One report y'day suggested SKG would be open to offers of €40+ ,,, hard to see Intl Paper upping their offer by that much especially if they had to make more of it in cash as opposed to shares ???

Actually, another thing to take into account is that Intl. Paper, although its recent return-on-equity no. is decent (>20%) its return on capital is not great (5%) and according to a cursory analysis I just saw, it may be over-valued by as much as 40% based on discounted cashflow method of valuation. Therefore, it would be in its interests to use as much of its equity to pay for SKG as possible if it is that much over-valued. If correct, the share component should only be valued at 60% which brings the effective offer per share down to around €32.33. Maybe that is why SKG are so insistent that it is indeed, opportunistic...

Sold about 25% of mine @ 34 as planning to hold SKG long-term but had target of around 33 to slice some off the top. Price is out in RNS this eve. from Intl. Paper who claim it amounts to €36.46 per share but only €22 of it is in cash and the rest in Intl. Paper shares...think it would be a lot more attractive with a larger cash component but still Smurfit board are facing it down... you would wonder what it would take for them to recommend... Obviously hostile approach from the tone of the Intl. Paper RNS. Either way, v. happy with getting €34 for a tranch of them and will buy back in if it drops back below €30 again in the event improved bid doesn't materialize... at least now we know what other people thing of SKG's potential/valuation.

Excellent bounce today on news of bid $$$ ...fair play to DAVY - they have consistently said SKG was undervalued and price seems to have moved up to around where they said it should be on the bid news. Wonder what value the offer put on the shares???

Results didn't seem quite as positive as DAVY were implying by talking up SKG the other day ... in hindsight, looks like a pre-emptive strike to counter some of the negative sentiment around the results announcement today ... that said, results seem steady enough despite some drop in the Americas, some of which must be -ve currency movements. Also, div increased so must be a bit over 3% annualized now. Seems more like a hold than a buy though around these levels...

Morgan Stanley are buying the SKG hand over fist over the last couple of days... interesting...

obviously whoever was poking around SKG has left the building with today's price plunge ... expect a story in the FT or similar in the next couple of days to say 'no deal' ...

that would explain some of the recent ramp up in price then...speculation of possible bid for skg from Amcor: [link]

@ johnmcclean - funny - I did the exact same thing as you with Glanbia - p/e just too high for me at a certain point but there you are. Offloaded half my SKG but thankfully kept 3k;s worth. It goes ex-div today so not surprising to see it come back a little but still seems to have momentum to go to 30+.