LSELondon South East
IIIInteractive Investor
DTMdiscussthemarket.com
LXB thirty fifty twenty
14 Sep 2015
Good News - i think!! NAV up another 3p,and a further chunk of assets converted into CASH,thus reason for the discount to NAV to close.And just delivering on another asset development reduces risk.So all seems good news.I'm a little perplexed by the purchase of a new rental asset for £38m,it seems like a good purchase, and every faith of LXB directors spotting value,though am wondering if it is, or might appear to others, as a change in strategy,or once they have IKEA finally nailed down next week will they be able to 'flip the new purchase.On a more negative note I wonder if they were forced to purchase this site next down for IKEA to complete the deal - did IKEA want some protection to their site?It will be interesting to see the market reaction.Regardless for me LXB is sitting well below realisable NAV within a 12mth timescale,the closer we get to the end of the year the more people will start to think about the CASH to come from developments as they are built out and distribution part 2.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLLXB is in my top5 hldgs
BPM thirty fifty twenty
14 Sep 2015
Re: analysis at 144p Hi Tomits not correct to add the two %.My analysis shows that the initial money invested into HYP has grown at 17% p.a.the money invested in a wide portfolio of assets is only 9% p.a.My logic is that the mgt team are more likely to replicate the wide portfolio return than find another HYP. Beside it is conservative assumption.And if take the last 10 years the return is only 6% p.a.So, for me, although the company is happy to boast of its long term record of 11.3% p.a., in my opinion this is heavily impacted by the 'early years' and also the 'one-off' success of HYP.Thus in my modelling I think that 6% p.a. is a conservative ongoing assumption.There is also a risk that the current NAV is 'over-inflated'. The valuation range that auditors find acceptable is c.15%-20%.Then my analysis tries to say what is BPM worth breaks into 3 strands,1. The current NAV is not at all over-valued but is underpinned by a high proportion being CASH, and like you say future CASH with HYP loan repayment and equity realisation. And also underpinned byt eh fact that valuations on its 2 biggest investments can be substantiated by my own independent analysis of known public information.2. How much will those asset grow by - i'm using 6% as I think the most recent 10 years is a better proxy than 25 years. Warren buffet has an incredible lifetime % return - but over the last 5 and 10 years he has under performed the market - no surprise or criticism given the size of his portfolio but a conservative assumption would use the more recent performance figures than a 'life time' % return.3. Lastly what discount should be used - 20% is the historic norm and I agree that argument can be easily made for it to be lower but I'd rather use a conservative estimate and see if there is value.So all in all, for me, the 3 strands indicate that 185p would be a reasonable price in 2 years time. This is 36% return over 2 years (including divi). That seems like great value to me though the upside is limited.Hope that is clearer and answers your queries.Best wishes TTFAll IMHO, DYOR + BoLBPM is in my portfolio
EMED Small Holding
14 Sep 2015
Andalucia not afraid of the copper price [link] Andalusian mining no longer afraid of the falling price of copperCarlos Pizá13/09/2015 23
7The oil price remain at low levels of around USD 50 a barrel for months, he is pulling down the rest of the commodities. Andalusia, which for five years has been repositioned as a production of copper concentrate thanks to the launch of the deposits of Cobre Las Cruces (CLC), Mina de Aguas Dyed (Matsa) and Rio Tinto, glances at the fall in the price of the metal.The memory of the price crisis of the nineties, which left devastated the sector with the closure of all existing mines, remains latent. Copper has fallen this year the price level of 2005 (5,000 ton dólates) and from the peak price reached in 2011, has not stopped falling.Is there concern among mining companies located in Andalusia, in the case of Trafigura Matsa and Rio Tinto (where Trafigura is the largest shareholder), and Canada's First Quantum in the CLC? Consultations with the three makes clear that low prices do not scare the mining sector.The implementation of modern technologies to refine copper in the mine itself, as in the case of CLC; the design of the installation process up to 4.4 million tons of ore and adjusting costs to produce one pound of concentrate today cost $ 1.3, in the case of Matsa; or adjustment of investment costs and expected savings on the initial plans of 2007 to make profitable use of a site with a wealth or low grade (percentage of total copper concentrate extracted), with respect to Rio Tinto."Matsa currently has operating permits Mine Waters Dyed, Sotiel and Magdalena. Sotiel deposits and Magdalena guarantee the supply of ore to the new treatment plant prolonging the life of the project Matsa beyond 20 years after its initial horizon. Thanks to the efforts made in recent years, the current situation will not affect projects that are currently already operating but it will force us to study in detail to prioritize future investments, "note from the company controlled by Trafigura and the Arab fund Mubadala.Secured investments"Because of the characteristics of the ore (high grade) and the process of Crosses (low cost) CLC is in the group of projects that do not take risks with falling metal prices. The copper recovery project other mineral resources goes ahead with investments already approved for 2016 and 2017 could depend on the metal price if it continues to fall, but not the scenario we contemplate either this year or in the next "explain sources of Seville mining company.Closure of mines to balance supply and demandEmed Mining (society is reopening Riotinto), meanwhile, agrees with the prospect of recovery in copper prices from 2016. It is based on two trends: in the next two years expects volume growth to moderate of refined copper, thanks to the slowdown in the implementation of new refineries (such as Atlantic Copper in Huelva), especially in China.Second, the price of copper will receive incentives to increase due to the lack of mineral sufficient to meet the demand volume. The decision of the commodities giant Glencore to paralyze two major mines until the level of prices recover is the basis for expecting that behavior of prices in 2017/2018. Only these two sites will cease to inject 400,000 tonnes of copper to the market."According to reports from specialists in the field this price range of around $ 5,000 per tonne can be maintained until the middle of next year when it will start a soft rebound but that will not achieve the rates seen in previous years. The longer-term expectations are even better. This prediction can get better if the big copper producers take action delaying projects and / or closing some high-cost mines unprofitable, "they say precisely from Cobre Las Cruces.
MTR scotchoverice
14 Sep 2015
I pray it has nothing to do with AB & RRR
CRND rRomeo29
14 Sep 2015
the next steps ahead ...the calculation from the Sunday mailing: Whoever hasnt bothered to sell during the former sell-alerts, had to be prepared to endure 8p.So here we are.While its too early to speak about a change in trend, CRND seems to have halted around 8.40p recently. Take a look at the latest (mini) bullish candlestick which points to a little break:[link] the bollingers bands are rather overstretched to the downside, pointing to a short-term technical rebound in the next few days.But how to 'play' it??1) Long term holders who havent sold are safe to hold as long as the 8.15p and 7.70p support lines remain intact. But very very careful there! Update coming asap!2) If the current 8.40p keeps holding, then CRND is is likely to see a technical in the next few days, probably to about 10-11p.3) But: A new, bullish alert is only indicated if the 11.45p and 11.70p barriers are climbed! And a long term buy-alert only possible if the massive 12.65p wall is breached. The best option so far has been the use of a trailing-stop. Other than a simple stop-loss, the trailing stop follows the Sp during its rise and keep you invested for as long as possible. Your 'take profit button' does NOT trigger for as long as the price keeps rising and holding.The same during a down-trend: Weeks back we mentioned 16ish and 13ish as the buy-back lines, but luckily the trailing stop kept waiting patiently and simply followed CRND on its way down to eight bl o dd y Pence!!The current trigger lines are as mentioned above. Remember to readjust on a weekly basis.
HRN numberbiter
14 Sep 2015
Re: Time for a takeover? I cannot see a glorious future for the company as revenue growth is the only way they can get the debt down. But there is no evidence of this happening.
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