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BVS Hydrogen Economy
24 Nov 2015
Re: Strong Update - Price crash HU, here you raise points worth discussing so I will do so in the hope we may both get a better understanding even if we do not agree, "What about the chance/probability of when a share falls 8% on results day, the average SP then reacts over the next 6-12 months. Mathematical chance/probability theory is how things like weather are calculated."Actually I did give my understanding of this - "I suspect that the analysts have woken up to the fact they had overestimated the growth and have offloaded accordingly. Valuation attempts to reflect the expected earnings trajectory over future 5-10 years, if the growth this year is downgraded, the total cash-flow estimate is likely to be seriously downgraded."ie SP will take a step change down.Re accuracy of accounts and risk that these can may misrepresent the true picture - very true for any company and a risk in any investment, but I find the accounts of most builders and particularly BVS to much be amongst the clearest and most transparent, the number of completions, average prices and costs can be readily tracked against reported earnings and are currently at least refreshingly free of exceptional items and adjustments. Perhaps you can share your specific concern about BVS or other builder's accounts?The statistical approach is valid, but totally dependent upon the assumptions - your assessment of range of estimate for sales, prices and costs and chances of financial meltdown or boom probably do not overlap much with mine, so it isn't going to matter much whether we use probabilistic or deterministic methods- we will disagree about value and SP, not sure that should bother anyone. I agree that the macro environment has a massive influence on the valuation of house-builders - but I probably have a different view of that environment moving forward. The macro trend will determine the medium/long term valuation of builders, the data and forecasts of where the economy is going are notoriously poor predictors - in part because they rely on backward looking measurement which is inaccurate and delayed. How often are the quarterly growth numbers revised in the following quarter. If the past cannot be measured accurately and promptly how good are the forecasts likely to be? My holding of builders is actually mainly based on a macro view that the economy is not likely to fall over a cliff any time soon. I look to the Company data to indicate relative performance and trends in sales. prices and costs. I bought into builders in 2012 (a bit late) and have been happy to take that risk which has given more realized profit than the value of my current holding. Your opinion and strategy are no doubt different, hope it's working for you.
PCI earthly
24 Nov 2015
Re: Egypt sale Fordian (BP, ENI or Edison are all contenders in my book, BP most likely).__________ __________ __________ __________ ______So, it looks as if the Bod are with their backs agains the WALL and are not going down without a last ditch attempt to save their jobs....looking a bit further ahead by their action seems to me they are putting themselves up for sale !? interestingly BP are Geographically almost our near neighbours in ALGERIA and of course ENI are already our partners. just thinking aloud 2+2 making 5 etc.etc. I hope if the Egyptian thing is sold we get all the monies that are owed to our company or least compensated from whoever takes over. Hopefully things will get resolved with a little more time. Remember we still have Italy...!!all IMOEARTHLY
am i right in thinking that all the debts are refinanced and the next debt that is available for renewal is 2018? [link]
Summary of Debt Financing Loan Balance US$m Maturity under April 2015 Loan amendment Senior Project Loans AFDB 21.2 2021 ABSA (ECIC) 23.9 2018 EAIF 2.6 2021 EIB 8.6 2021 FMO 8.6 2019 KfW IPEX-Bank (Hermes) 6.6 2018 KfW IPEX-Bank (MIGA) 7.7 2021 Total Senior Loans 79.2 Subordinated Project Loans EIB 143.6 2021 EAIF 57.5 2021 FMO 45.5 2021 Total Subordinated Loans 246.6 Total 325.8 Project loan amendment fees (15.5) Amortised over life of loans Total Project Loans 310.3 Absa corporate facility 19.6 2021 Total Group Loans 329.9
PGD Antiques Of Woodstock
24 Nov 2015
Re: Missed production targets coupled wi... Good morning AllNothing other than facts in this post.Current POG $1,073/oz less our 2015 average cash cost $1,291/oz = A profitable company with surplus funds to spend in Uruguay?OR PGD losing $218oz from production if things continue as they are?We must not forget what the company has also told us in this RNS: ' Q4 of 2015 and Q1 of 2016 forecast significant cost savings and normalising of Au production levels'Normalising of production levels - What does that mean?AH YES - now I understand 'normalising' means 'the Company expects the Lomada Mine to achieve forecast production of 5000 ounces in November and December and 9000 ounces for Q1 2016'Forgive me for being thick - but unless we reduce our cash costs from where they now sit at $1,291/oz to well below what was our previously anticipated cash cost of US$1,180 we will be losing money for each ounce we produce. So - Ii do we manage to reduce our cash costs to the previously anticipated figure of $1,180 with the current POG sitting at $1,073 we will still be losing $107/oz.Economies of scale - the greater the amount we produce the more we lose. Is this the correct time to be ramping up production? Is this the correct time to be looking to expand activities into Uruguay?Draw your own conclusions.Good luck All
MML roco200
24 Nov 2015
Roy Daniel back That is great news. He was part of the success story when Medusa became a Ten Bagger.I would trust him.SP Angel this morning are saying Geoff Davis resigned (second time around) due to ill health. Is that correct?Anyone know any more info on this please?
CRE gretel
24 Nov 2015
Interim results out today Typical - CRE have actually sorted themselves out strategy-wise, are winning clients and new business, but find themselves shot in the foot by reduced medical budgets and the weakened euro.The markdown seems a bit of an over-reaction in an illiquid stock.CRE are only to be "slightly" below expectations, which implies around 12.5p-13p EPS this year. Given almost 5p EPS in H1 this feels achievable as CRE report improved trading in Q2 and in H2 to date.The interim divi implies a 4.4p or so divi for the year - a handsome yield. At 116p the upside far outweighs the downside imho.
JDW II Editor
24 Nov 2015
NEW ARTICLE: Stockwatch: This highly-rated share offers defensive growth " With the business cycle already extended and warnings creeping in, be alert for dependable performers. A proven theme from the last recession was well-managed pubs in South East England, benefiting from people's resolve not to compromise social ..."[link]
AMA Jitter
24 Nov 2015
Cash ! Is there a chance that AMA will run out of cash before the BFS is delivered in H2? Will there be another placing, as we've had no investment from IFC! J.
LOGP david polson
24 Nov 2015
Back to the Future Perhaps the De Lorian has been used to nip ahead to October 15th 2025... If so, this must mean...LANSDOWNE OIL23 Nov 2015 13:40:55Emmet K BrownRNS Number : 6325GEmmet K Brown23 November 2015
PRG Pharma Brown
24 Nov 2015
Re: Not good news.....PRG delisted on 16... On the 'not good news' theme, today's RNS of PRG's nomad (Northland Capital) resigning with immediate effect and leaving us with 30 days to find a replacement, sounds very nasty indeed. Either they have seriously screwed up to be resigning during a share suspension, or a case of rats leaving sinking ship. Just imagine the effect on sp of such news had we not been suspended!Reading between the lines, Northland may have been at loggerheads with PRG and especially PM regarding the conducting of the funding discussions, and therefore liable to be replaced, therefore opting to resign rather than waiting to be replaced. The bottom line financially is that to continue with Lemphane alone we only need a small amount of working capital which could be found through a modest placing or support from ITCT. The ship isn't sinking!Guitar, my last was indeed at 3.30am. Hadn't realised the time! Truth is that I was singing in a performance of Messiah that evening, then sat up late catching up on recorded TV with late supper, then went onto computer....etc. I'm actually in Newcastle and retired, so not tied any more to the old time requirements of the employed! Your speculation was highly amusing - thanks for providing a good laugh!!Fingers crossed for PRG. We just have to sweat out the speculation a bit longer.GLA
FOGL harpmandoodle
24 Nov 2015
There's no RNS from FOGL?
FOGL harpmandoodle
24 Nov 2015
Good deal for FOGL
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