As we all know without the promised news by Captain Kirk this will drift back down to 4-5p.
Thanks to all for some entertaining reading. It's fascinating to see the different philosophies of the "investors" and the "speculators." Winning Streak. You said "in this game... losses are likely to exceed gains for the average private punter". It's not just private punters. Most hedge funds also struggle to make adequate returns with these strategies. And that's because (having insider information aside) it's just so freaking hard to call ST market movements. Shorters got it right on Carillion. But what about Ocado for example. They've been killed in the recent rally. Now personally I would have said their view on the Ocado story is not without merit. But the market has completely gone against them. Me, I'm in the investor camp. I'm not antagonistic to shorters. In a way I admire the courage. I just find shorting way too stressful and ultimately incompatible with the "investor" mind set - hone in on a great asset, place your chips and wait. As someone said on this board a while back it's like picking pennies in front of a steam roller. You will win... until the day you get flattened. On IQE only time will tell. Shorters ultimately have zero impact on the operational business and hence "value for long term holders". I'm a believer in the story with a LT time horizon. I guess time will tell.
Would just add that the current rise in GBP is unhelpful. But imagine that we get a bad/hard Brexit and/or Corbyn in the next 24M. Given the negotiations so far and the ineptness of the current govt neither is beyond the realm of possibilities. There are few better hedges. Do you really want to own UK banks, utilities, real estate, etc. Or a company that is riding the wave of the growing, thirsty, global EM middle classes. I genuinely believe this is a must own stock. Buy, re-invest dividends and return in 10Y...
I agree that the results weren't exciting. And I can't see the share price going anywhere fast. However, it all depends how you see this share and your time horizon. I view it as a core LT bed-rock to my portfolio, which counterbalances my riskier small cap plays. I love the fact that the economics of this business are so sweet. How many FTSE 100 companies have gross margin north of 60% and a net income margin north of 20%? How many can genuinely offer LT defensive growth? Annual DPS in 2013 was 47p. In 2017 it was 62p. Net Debt in the interim was flat. Unlike so many others Diageo has not been gearing up to increase payouts to shareholders. It doesn't need to 'cause it's a cash machine. To the extent you haven't read it I highly recommend Lindsell Train's Insight series, in particular his Feb 2017 articles on "Confounding Compounding". The focus is on Unilever but it gives a great insight into why Diageo is such a great LT hold. I would argue this is the closest we have in the FTSE to a buy and forget share. Will it blow the lights out. No. But barring global prohibition it should deliver a more than respectable return in the LT. The current value is rich but by no means outrageous for such a high quality share. All IMHO
[link] Procter & Gamble posted a 68% drop in 2Q18 earnings due to tax charge and last year's Beauty Brands divestiture gain.
FYI Brookemia also uses the alias Kreature.
Actually the article is a long profile of Nick Furlong, and there is just a passing mention as to why Nick Furlong has invested in Providence and INM. It mentions that despite his reluctance to talk to the press, Furlong won't be slow to make his opinions known if things do not turn around for these two companies. The article tells us that Nick Furlong grew up in Dun Loaghaire in the 1950s, and qualified as an accountant in the 1970s, though he never professionally practised. After a brief spell in Britain, in the 1980s, he established his own business installing cable television feeds around Dublin. Brough Xtravision in 1993, and sold it in 1997 for a reported 20 million. He also set up a company called the Pilton group, making profits of 70 million by 2005. Sold Pilton group to DCC for 42 million. After that set up Pageant. Sold his stake in One51 in 2015 for 36 million. He lost money on Zamano. But he stepped in twice with money to keep things going in this company. He is also active in the property game through his investment vehicle Melcorpo. The article mentions that he is not afraid to get involved in companies if he feels that things are not going right. So after all this, people are now wondering why he is getting involved in two of Ireland's most troubled companies.
London, 22 January 2018 -- Moody's Investors Service, ("Moody's") has today upgraded Tullow Oil plc ("Tullow")'s Corporate Family Rating (CFR) to B1 from B2 and probability of default rating (PDR) to B1-PD from B2-PD. Concurrently, the ratings on its USD650 million 2020 and USD650 million 2022 senior unsecured global notes were upgraded to B3 from Caa1. The outlook on all Tullow's ratings was changed to stable from positive. RATINGS RATIONALE The upgrade of the rating to B1 from B2 mainly reflects all the positive developments in 2017 which strengthened the financial profile of the company. Moody's expects adjusted gross debt/EBITDA to fall to around 3.2x in 2017 after peaking at 5.5x in 2016, mainly due to higher production from TEN and higher oil prices. The deleveraging was also a result of the successful rights issue raising net proceeds of $721 million in March 2017 which allowed the company to reduce debt. The company's liquidity profile was also strengthened after the successful refinancing of the Reserve Based Lending (RBL) facility in November 2017 with a three year grace period until October 2020. The B1 rating reflects the stronger financial and liquidity profile which should provide the company with greater operational flexibility to grow the business and consider the acceleration of investment in projects and selective growth opportunities. The upgrade of the rating to B1 reflects (a) its solid business profile with sizeable oil and gas resource base (b) its growing low cost production offshore Ghana, with TEN fields ramping-up in 2017-18 (c) successful exploration programme and strong execution track-record, with significant oil discoveries in Uganda and Kenya, that underpin the company's long-term production growth trajectory, and (d) proactive steps taken by the company to manage its liquidity position in 2017 and a prudent hedging programme which covers approximately 60% of its oil sales each year. However, Tullow's rating demonstrates a linkage to the sovereign rating of Ghana (B3, stable) given its sizable country exposure expected to account for around 69% of production in 2017 and therefore a further upgrade of the B1 rating is unlikely.