dazedandconfused
05 Oct 2015
Re: at 78p great results + outlook Not an unreasonable target 225p actually; WTM was at £1.50 in 2002 and £2 in 2007. Albeit there was central London owned Property value behind the price ten years ago, which has since been disposed. Just goes to show not to listen to departed senior employees in a pub who might have gripes to air!! Still, i did start buying these at 42p in the mid-90's, so not out of pocket (and did dispose of some at one of the peaks).
thirty fifty twenty
05 Oct 2015
at 78p great results + outlook A great set of results.....turnover up 25% ORGANICALLY and confident of future pipeline.investing based on orders (staff costs absorbed now prior to sales benefit).specifically operating margins to more or less double from current 3.3% towards 6% by June 19.Loss making division is now operating at break even on a monthly basis.CASH up to 4m after 0.5m minority purchase.how i think mgt see getting to 6% is detailed at the bottom.what is notable about these figures is that:1 - it doesn't actually require margin growth on current business2 - there will be an increase next year as sales covered new recruited staff3 - C&T breaks down to accounting losses to be booked and current b/even trading4 - turnover will grow. we know that infrastructure spending is on a 5 year secure growth path5 - CASH flow is v.strongValuations.....working with the mgt figures to June 19 the company could be valued at 225p (pre acquisitions)I prefer looking at most 2 years out: EBITDA of 6m, PBT of 5.2m, EPS (fully diluted 12p),CASH 6m = 20p a shareI think these figures are reasonably certain,what is not known is the future beyond that an how the market will value those profits.for me, a worst case scenario is P/E ex CASH of 6t = 92p,a realistic price would be P/E ex CASH of 8t = 115pand possible to envisage P/E ex CASH of 12t = 160pAll of this supported by a great chart pattern,with the share breaking into 6 years highs on good volume,and 'confirmed' by relative outperformance of the broader market over 1,3 and 5 yearsAll IMHO, DYOR + BoLWTM is in my top5 hldgs========== ========== ========== ========== ========== ========== =======to June 15current ongoing businesses = 4.8%loss making c&t = (1.5%)net = 3.3%CASH = 4mto June 16current ongoing businesses = 5.2%loss making c&t = (0.6%)net = 4.6% [this works out at PBT of 3.8m as mgt say above fcst of 3.3m]CASH = 5mto June 17current ongoing businesses = 5.2%loss making c&t = 0.0% (b/even)net = 5.2% [t/o will grow from current 84m to 94m to 100m]thus PBT = 5.2m, EPS = 12p (fully diluted basis)CASH = 6mto June 18current ongoing businesses = 5.2%loss making c&t = 0.4%net = 5.6%CASH = 7mto June 19current ongoing businesses = 5.2%loss making c&t = 0.6%net = 5.8% [t/o at this stage could be 110m +]thus gives PBT of 6.2m, EPS of 14p (fully diluted) and CASH 25p a share!!yes it is 4 years out but valuation could be (10 years post credit crunch) = 225p!!
dazedandconfused
05 Oct 2015
Re: at 72p looking forward to results Results look good, and the Divi doubling should ramp the shares up in the next month - seems i might have jumped too early! Mind you, the continuing 10% loss at Civils & Transportation business in UK, on £11m turnover with legacy issues, doesn't look too smart. This good news all pre-assumes that UK market continues to motor ahead, as it now represents 89% of their business. They will be paying higher wages for all those new city centre recruits (and offices); the professional labour market is very tight at present.
thirty fifty twenty
30 Sep 2015
Re: at 72p looking forward to results hi d&cunderstand what you mean and it could well turn out a timely sell.I cant see me holding for 15 years for the reasons you say - they are just not big enough,but the business is transformed since 2010 on internal growth,and that is underestimated by the market.I think this will be more evident if they release their internal fcsts for profit to mar 18.when forecasts for next year get to show 10p eps then the market will value at 90p+and then i'll be happy to ride any profits.....I've also analysed the implications of WYG,and think the excessive LTIP that has recently been cancelled was a reason for lack of a sale,time will tellbut good to see holders of both hold up well against the market declines in recent months,and ironically I take some comfort that price has remained steady despite your selling.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLWTM + WYG are in my portfolio
dazedandconfused
30 Sep 2015
Re: at 72p looking forward to results I've sold a couple of weeks back... after an unplanned pub discussion and then a long internal debate. Hope i'm wrong; have held these for 15+ years on the basis of hope (after the sale of property assets) and expectation of a takeover/consolidation. But WYG news tended to suggest the bigger boys are not fishing!
thirty fifty twenty
30 Sep 2015
at 72p looking forward to results WTM reports next week and think the results will have a positive outlook stmt.Other similar companies are reporting very busy in UK infrastructure spend so WTM should benefit.They are also recruiting heavily so must be winning business.Their current mgt fcst is for 3.3PBT by Mar 16,This is within reach - their business already make £4m profit, offset by one division which was loss-making and is now working through some old contractsthey have said before they will lay out a revised target,my estimate would be £4.5m by Mar 18 (a 33% increase) and implying eps well north of c.12p a share.decent yield as well, and CASH on b/sAll IMHO, DYOR + BoLWTM is in my portfolio
dazedandconfused
12 Jun 2015
Re: Fool article Excellent review work, and i'm a long term backer of these, having seen them rise and fall over 25 years since flotation!! I undertook a detailed study on WTM and similar engineering consultancy firms WSAtkins, Weeks (now BV), Ernest Green (soon WYG) & WSP in the mid-1990's as part of a business degree, and it's interesting to see how some have fared since (and others, like Hyder, have flared and gone...).
Blanketstacker
12 Jun 2015
Re: Fool article For what it is worth, I think your analysis is spot on. I am waiting for a dip to buy in here. I wish I had seen your piece in December!!!
Dr Vodka Quickstep
12 Jun 2015
Fool article I posted this back in December but forgot to add a link here on iii.Comments / feedback welcome.[link]
janebolacha
02 Jun 2015
Another framework contract secured [link]
janebolacha
02 Jun 2015
Infrastructure boom Waterman mentioned as one of the likely beneficiaries:[link]
janebolacha
21 May 2015
Prestigious award [link]
janebolacha
18 May 2015
New contract Midlands Highway Alliance contract:[link]
janebolacha
20 Apr 2015
RIBA Award [link]
janebolacha
13 Apr 2015
Major contract extension [link]
