dazedandconfused
09 May 2017
Kerching... or some other Japanese word, perhaps? My 25-year holding will come to an end, if memory serves right my first tranche was at 40p, so just added a Quid! With Atkins going Canadian (and AFW going Scottish!), who else might be 'up for sale'?? Looking at my more recent WYG holdings, but also long-term RPS and Aukett in my SIPP - if anyone would want to buy an Architect...
thirty fifty twenty
28 Feb 2017
Re: at 77p analsyis of INTERIMS yes the higher prices in the market place is good news for the secondment business.actually the results show that WTM has a diversified portfolio of interests,so able to hold profits when a downturn in one.it seems solidly backed and as i;ve stated before even with a post brexit downturn 2 yers out - all they have to do is manage the number of consultants in line with the level of work. It is only a 'shock' fall in the level of assignments that might cuase losses.Do you think there is much chance of a bid?The comparisons with Mouchel (ex Kier) are very flattering.And interestingly WYG seemed to be tweaking it previous acquisition strategy in its last update.
dazedandconfused
28 Feb 2017
Re: at 77p analsyis of INTERIMS Agree; topped up mildly myself too. Most Consultants seem to be drifting sideways in share prices, but are putting their rates up in the marketplace at present (mind you, they are having to pay more for expertise too!).
thirty fifty twenty
28 Feb 2017
at 77p analsyis of INTERIMS I was surprised by the reaction to the results today.They seemed as expected to me .. in that 2017 will be flat and growth to follow in 2018. It makes sense that they have some visibility of 2018 profits given the large commissions won in recent couple of years.And their secondment division will benefit materially from the Gvt spending on infrastructure (esp. roads)CASH increased to almost 7m (22m a share!) and a 4p divi this year (5%+ ),Which is fcst to be 4.8p (6%) for next year.With CASH generation, divi and CASH in the bank it is hard to see much downside,which is supported by the chart. It is also though hard to see much immediate upside esp with a recent seller overhang.Comparing to the price KIE sold Mouchel Consulting for would value WTM at somewhere between 120p and 160p a share!! Here’s hoping for a surprise one day!! Long term trend is up, so happy to hold at the mo - it seems very likely to be 10% higher in 2017 plus a divi, and an outside (10% chance of a bid). I've bought this morning.All IMHO, DYOR BoLWTM is in my top5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty
09 Dec 2016
at 82p analysis of AGM update I was surprised how positive the AGM update was...I expected some reiteration of new contracts wins sprinkled with caution on economy.instead it was confirmation of trading,new contract listings,using 'excellent' progress',saying outlook is positive due to Autumn Statement and infrastructure,and that CASH pile keeps growing to support progressive dividend.so this year eps 8p, next year almost 10p,divi this year 4p, next year 4.8p,CASH this year 25p per share, next year 30pall supported by a strong and improving chart picture,that dip post Brexit vote looks more and more like a panic overreaction,the deals announced show WTM to be a unique market leading working in partnership with national agencies at a time when national interests are top of the Gvt agenda !these are now cheap and I think will get covering by ST in icAl IMHO, DYOR + BoLWTM is in my top5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty
08 Nov 2016
Re: AB Traction go to > 15% don't think any connection - as he is not on Board of AB Traction - which is Swedish listed PLV investment company and very approachable.
dazedandconfused
08 Nov 2016
Re: AB Traction go to > 15% Any connection (Apart from being Swedish?) to Peter Gyllenhammer, who had a substantial holding many years back? And may still do, for all i know... perhaps they're just trading mates in Stockholm?
thirty fifty twenty
08 Nov 2016
AB Traction go to > 15% surprisingly little reaction to the 2 RNS from AB Traction who have increased their holding again and now have > 15%.of course the other side of the coin is that someone has sold those shares!AB traction like the underlying CASH flow of the operation,and they refer to its long term market share strength.AB Traction's performance record is excellent is CASH generating growth businesses,so it gives me further confidence that they are averaging UP! (there last purchases were at c.50p in 2014)however they are long term investors - happy 12-15% p.a. achieved over many years,so I don't expect any fireworks or price appreciation soon,but it does re-confirm that there is a reasonable safety net here,and at 80p I think one is buying c. 30% below intrinsic value that might take 3 to 4 years to be realised. That's longer than my typical holding period so not ideal and means i'm probably slightly overweight for my strategy but happy to be patient and hold.c.80p is a great l.term support level,so nice to see chunks of the company changing hands at this price.No idea if the seller finished yet but at some point will be cleared and allow the price to rise. All IMHO, DYOR + BoLWTM is in my top5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty
10 Oct 2016
analysis at 84p of FINALS initially I thought the results were disappointing,but on reflection I realised that the results were good,it was the share price reaction that was disappointing!the FINALS confirmed the strength of last year,and 3 mths post Brexit the order book is flat,and they are still very committed to 6% operating margin m(I guess they have to say that!)there were 2 particularly good bits of news I took from between the lines...1 - they declared 3.6m vs a target of 3.3mmy thinking is .... why not declare 3.5m, and save 100m for next year?my conclusion is because they are reasonably relaxed about future levels of activity and profit2 - one division is still making a 0.4m loss.the profit trend is very positive and it will make money (marginally) this year,but all things being equal this is a 15% increase in EPS in itself.CASHthe CASH balance 20p a share (likely to be c.30p in 12 mths time)and the fact that they generate CASH is IMHO undervalued by the market.in 5 years they have gone from 8.5m debt to 6m CASH and paid out 1.5m in dividends.so the WTM PLC has generated 16m after tax CASH in 5 years (3.2m per year),but the directors and listing costs are c.800k a year,so the actual business has generated c. 4m POST TAX CASH on aver. per annum since 2011and that is currently being valued 9Economic Value) at 20m!! a more realistic valuation would be 40m - i.e. a share price of 150p!so a bidder could easily pay 120p and still get a bargin !!the directors don't own many shares to block a bid either .....there has been 600k shares traded today (2% of the company) so some-one is selling out....I suspect it is Ruffer who have been selling for a couple of years (their normal investment is in much larger companies) - so this is small beer to them.but to me that's good news... that 2% can change hands for marginally below market price means the results were not too bad after all. it also means that the selling is not a reaction to the results information but a planned corporate exercise. this , I feel, creates an opportunity, as investors see a share price fall and assume the results are bad news when actually the high volume indicates that some-one else was very happy to buy a percentage stake in the company (I guess we will know in a few days with holding RNS). I have bought further today.now maybe in the future the economy will look dire...but all WTM have to do is balance the number of consultants with work available.the economy may well decline but has not fallen off the edge of a cliff as in the credit crisis,so I think investors are looking at the possibility of an economic slow down but ignoring the fact that mgt can take action to mitigate the impact - either with natural levels of staff leaving the business, or redundancies, and just a hard look at operating costs (which are 405 of turnover...)so I see limited downside at these prices.....and that bid is always in the wings....and there is chart support > 80p,and 'a lot can happen in 12 months' so I think I will be able to sell out at > 90p within 12 months (that is 10% return incl divi) i.e. Better Than CASH and little downside.and of course if the bid does materialise that would be at 110p +time will tell 
))All IMHO, DYOR + BoLWTM is in my top5 hlgs
dazedandconfused
04 Oct 2016
Re: Back above 2014-15 levels now, at 75p>>85p Two months later, WSA continues to rise and now AFW & WYG have shifted upwards a little. RPS in the environment/hydrocarbon/developer field have also just started to recover, so it does seem that engineering consultancies are recovering ground, on the basis of no significant news
thirty fifty twenty
04 Oct 2016
at 88p thoughts on Gvt policy... I don't know how much of the conservative conference is new news,but it all seems good news for WTM....there is commitment to Infrastructure spend,there is focus on housebuilding,the ditching of the fiscal targets implies that if GDP falters the Gvt will step in with spending to give a boost - that will be again infrastructure spending.so it seems that on going activity will be at least maintained in WTM markets,and downside is limited as if there is an economic slowdown the Gvt will step in to some degree...and within that WTM themselves seem to be getting momentum and have the ability to gain market share... i.e appointment for the £1bn the Canary Wharf development project must make it easier to win other business.As an estimate WTM 's fees would be c.1.5% of the project spend so that is £15m of income - albeit spread over a few years it is a great piece of business to have in one's pocket !All IMHO, DYOR + BoLWTM is in my top5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty
29 Jul 2016
above 2014-15 levels now, at 75p Well the contract is good news,but they also expect more large irish contracts.Irish economy is strongest growth in Europe, ahead of their economic budgets,and a beneficiary of Brexit decision.The big, big benefit for WTM though, is that they can utilise their UK consultants.so 1 they done have to recruit consultants,and 2 it utilises the UK consultants during any post Brexit slowdown.So on the surface the contract is immaterial to group profits,but the implication I think is materially positive.The reason for share price normalisation isbecause they have not said anything else about trading.....One must assume therefore it is in line.Their expect profit growth is c.20%,but more crucially CASH flow is huge relative to size of business.I had bought more post Brexit and happy to buy more even today- hope it wasn't me that moved the market !All IMHO, DYOR + BOLWTM is in my top5 hlgs
dazedandconfused
29 Jul 2016
Back above 2014-15 levels now, at 75p Was it JUST the news about the Irish project starting? Or is reality setting in again with the consulting engineer market, looking at WSA recent trend, but not WYG or AUK or AFW...yet!
popes11
06 Jul 2016
Re: thoughts at 63p down another 5p 40p before Christmas then down to 26p next year.
thirty fifty twenty
05 Jul 2016
thoughts at 63p down another 5p i'd be very surprised to see 40p or even close.compared to 2008 - the business has CASH of 7m vs debt of 10m at that time,and the brexit situation has visbility - albeit it is still a shock to the system,but most people would conclude that it is not as bad as then.WTM has 25p CASH per share to weather any short term halt in new contract wins,and then just need to re-size business.there is big chart support at 60p so i'm expecting a bounce from there.....regardless if it does fall further I will top up - its a decent business with take over potential when things settle down and hard to see the divi being cancelled at this stage so i'm happ with a near 5% yield and wait for a recovery.the attraction for me is limited downside...if trade worse they can survive and thus will win market share ongoing,if price falls directors could back back sharesor bidder or even rumours of a bidder would emerge.this time next year CASH could will be 8m to 9m (higher if there is a slowdown!)which is 26-30p per share.my strategy is not to try and pick the absolute bottom, but enter at a decent price and hold with little worry.and WTM fits that criteria very well- good luck to the more active trader.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLWTM is in my top5 hldgs
