Hardboy
26 Oct 2017
Re: Hotels Growth - Good for Premier Inn " Let's pick a town -- Bedford for example :- Population about just under 80,000 How many coffee shops do they have? 35 at a quick count -- I mean does anybody work anymore ffs? "Obviously games doesn't consider the waiters, kitchen staff & counter staff in coffee shops as workers. It's very difficult to pick a typical town. They vary so much. As do coffee shops. My home town in Derbyshire (considerably smaller than Bedford, but still a busy market town) had recently had a Costa opened. The locals I know love it, and use it. There were plenty of other places one could have a coffee - pubs, greasy spoons, van on the market place, fish and chip restaurants, local cafes (step up from the greasy spoon) even the Church on the right day - but Costa offers something a bit different. I called in on a quiet Sunday afternoon, and it had a steady turnover: more than enough to cover the salarie4s of the staff there. I suspect a weekday or Saturday would see it even busier.
B.V
26 Oct 2017
Re: Hotels Growth - Good for Premier Inn Hello Games," Let's pick a town -- Bedford for example :-Population about just under 80,000How many coffee shops do they have?35 at a quick count -- I mean does anybody work anymore ffs? "Steady on mate, I live in Bedford (well, just outside Bedford ) and I am 70, still work and have no idea where where most of your 35 coffee shops are (well, I prefer to sup beer in pubs you understand ), But......When No 1 son goes out in his delivery van he assures me that the best part of his day is to stop and pick up a Costa Coffee, whilst out on his round.What was that Victor Kiam said?Well, the other oldies would know the answer!Regards,BV
tomhawbuck
25 Oct 2017
Re: Hotels Growth - Good for Premier Inn Bill"This one made me titter - they are so far behind the likes of Pret, Wetherspoons, Greene King, Marstons and Mitchells it's untrue... Since the smoking ban the pubs have become the premier breakfast eateries..""I can only go on what I am told, by people who comprise this fast-moving breakfast and/or lunch market (largely alien to me nowadays). I am sure it's all down to location... and my point is, where Costa may be "far behind", they are pretty focused on it now, and they have the capital and balance sheet to throw money at it - as opposed to many of the pubs, etc, which seem beset, still, by issues in their own core trading operations?"Speaking as a person who recently had breakfast in Spoons and Costa (not on the same day) I think they are serving different markets. Spoons clients are slightly older and slightly more down market than the ones who frequent Costa. I think the fast food/breakfast market is highly segmented and people who would use one chain are not necessarily the people who would use another. Also, if things do turn down a bit (and it smells to me as if they are), then the high cost, high price artisanal coffee shops might struggle.Tom
Lupo di mare
25 Oct 2017
Re: Hotels Growth - Good for Premier Inn biter - "Lupo, you have explained the difference between dynamic management who deserve huge salaries and bonuses and those who don't actually do anything, but demand high salaries and bonuses, The Board of Directors main job is developing strategy and planning for the future, Whitbread's old Board were on the ball. They could see that beer sales were declining and (as you said) they cleverly got out of brewing and pubs.."I did?? I said those things?? I don't think so. Admit it, you're infatuated with me."Coffee now is where beer was a few years ago, in decline.." I jush like to say...
Lupo di mare
25 Oct 2017
Re: Hotels Growth - Good for Premier Inn Talking about more coffee outlets, two libraries near where I live (yes, we still have them, folks) have set up coffee shops. That's a great idea and one which is very close to my heart: instead of all the hand-wringing and blaming of governments, they've got on and made their libraries contribute to their upkeep. So, anyway, Costa's definitely (Bill) feeing the heat, and will comtinue to feel the heat. Competition's great and it'll make Costa (and is) more innovative.PI are, apparently from these results, also feeling the heat. Airbnb, and the like, and aparthotels are making inroads and will continue to do so. So WTB are going to have to rely on cost-cutting (hmm) and expansion, which latter comes at the cost I spoke about. Maybe WTB should consider the aparthotels biz themselves. I dunno.I'm a bit bitter having sold out too soon on the advice of a certain investment magazine that begins with an 'i'. I no longer receive said magazine, and my wealth has increased accordingly. Anyway, coffee time folks. Good luck and bon chance (my good relations exercise for the day...).
macbonzo
25 Oct 2017
Re: Hotels Growth - Good for Premier Inn I actually agree with your wife. Of the three major brands (Starbucks, Costa and Nero), Nero is possibly the one I prefer, due to it being much more of a Milan/Viennese concept, rather than the Starbucks, American concept. On that note, I wonder, if there is a market for the proper Viennese coffee shop i.e. Large location of an old building (possibly a bank), where you are served by staff wearing long aprons. I mean look what Wetherspoons did with old banks.I also wonder if WTB, should pursue the McDonalds approach of becoming a property company i.e. Buying the sites and franchising operations more. If you look at Prezzo, Ask (and the other chain), the Kaye family built up, they reached a certain size, then sold it to a trade buyer or listed it.
Bill1703
25 Oct 2017
Re: Hotels Growth - Good for Premier Inn "What does that mean for WTB? Fairly obvious. Wonder what the sp will do today. With interest rates possibly moving higher in the next couple of months (depending on whom you listen to), I'd say that this'll drift lower."Right so far, Lupo... the market is very much UK=bad these days, no matter the stock-specific story. And god knows, I have some sympathy - we're in for a tough time sure enough, for a few years at least... though you have asymmetrical "upside risk" now IMHO, the bad news generally in the price, but watch all these stocks fly if Brexit fails (current probability? 25%? More?... with next to no chance of a "hard" Brexit... IMHO).But still no reason why both PI and Costa can't do well... or well enough, given the valuation. Currently well under 15x prospective P/E, now into "discount to UK market" territory. I've been onto the WTB site, had a look at their H1 presentation slides... interesting reading, and all very encouraging - though this is their take on it, so you'd expect that to some extent.But if projections for the coffee market are anywhere close to correct - and unless Costa suddenly loses market share traction - the upside potential remains considerable. Lots of people have stories of their high street being 95% coffee shops now... but I can reel off a dozen places, with decent footfall, where coffee is still under represented, and plenty of spare space... name your own terms on the lease! And then there are all the "growth" channels they are increasingly focused on... they have the (well-invested) brand, the capital capacity, the balance sheet - not many can compete with that. And I quite like the Express machines... easy to use, good but not excessive choice, no queues... and must be making ROCE on a par with those fixed odd betting terminals!No idea whether Carney will raise rates... my guess is, Hammond hasn't either! As always, he has carefully lined his path to cover absolutely all options - and I'd struggle to spot anyone LESS concerned about job security! And if he does put rates back up to 0.5% (maybe 50% chance?)... what price the next move just as likely to be down again, than onwards and upwards?!
Hardboy
25 Oct 2017
Re: Hotels Growth - Good for Premier Inn Bill,We're getting slightly off WTB topic. but as a predominantly UK business, politics is very influential to the outlook for the business, so I've justified it to myself."I don't agree with Hardboy that it is inevitable. Despite his growing "cult" status, there are major holes in both Corbyn's appeal and his programme, with which an even vaguely competent opposing campaign should be able to make hay. Dare I say it, Boris might be the best bet for that."You are of course right, it is not inevitable. A week is a long time in politics and there could be around 200 more weeks before the next General Election; but I think the Brexit process and outcome will be so unpopular that the incumbent party will have no chance of recovering. The hope will be that once the deal (or no deal) is finalised the Tories have a change of leader who will have a couple of years to turn the fortunes round; but I suspect the management of the UK from EU member to post Brexit entity will be so complex that it will be too much for whoever is in power; and while there may be many flaws in Corbyn's appeal, incumbent parties lose elections far more than oppositions win them. On Coffee shops (back to WTB proper) if some posters are right here that the UK market is getting saturated and Costa is dated; then their strategy seems completely correct - milk the mature market and invest in the growth market. Good business strategy. And to counter Games comment about the cold pub breakfasts - a couple of years ago we had a flood in our house and were put up in a Premier Inn for 2 months while the house was refurbished. I found the Brewer's Fayre Breakfasts consistently excellent quality. Of course that is just a single site out of many, but the experience was based on many visits rather than a single.
Bill1703
25 Oct 2017
Re: Hotels Growth - Good for Premier Inn "No chance m8, there is absolutely no danger of me sharing a bed with Lenny Henry... Also there is no breakfast unless you wander across the road to the less than appealing pub breakfast..."It's Sir Lenny these days, Games... for "services to Premier Inn", I believe. And I don't know what PI breakfast experience you have had, and how recently... stayed over in PI at Gatwick earlier this year, a huge, very good bar/restaurant on site, doing a roaring trade! Food pretty good... and a few years back, we had a PI with a Brewer's Fayre connected (no road crossing, or even going outside) - perfectly good breakfast, and better than many I've had. Your comment much more reflects my experience with the likes of Travelodge, but I have only a couple of personal experiences to go on... but my sense still is that PI is wiping the floor with them, and most of the rest too."... there are so many quirky little coffee shops opened in the last years that it's nice to frequent somewhere a bit different, in the same way that lots want to try a different beer ... than pouring tasteless Heineken or Budweiser down your throat."You could be more on the money with coffee... a jaunt to Edinburgh recently revealed all sorts of interesting little artisan places, not really my scene but I can see how some would gravitate there rather than their local branded. But I suspect, that is not the "mass market"... and Costa's incremental opportunity now is not in well-trodden major international cities, but in all the (multitude of) smaller and midscale towns which are still under-served by coffee shops. Spot on with Budweiser... good to drink only if you don't "drink". But not Heineken... proper continental lager, export strength (5%) and brewed to age-old standard - whatever you think of the EU, you have to give it to them (at least, Germany, France, Belgium, selected Scandi, etc), they make much better beer (as lager is known pretty much all round the world, ex-UK) than most other places, notably the US, Australia, the UK - the latter at least historically, but kudos to many of the craft start-ups (as you indeed reference).
gamesinvestor
25 Oct 2017
Re: Hotels Growth - Good for Premier Inn """With interest rates possibly moving higher in the next couple of months (depending on whom you listen to)""Lupo - it's a good point - While George Osborne was in the chair, you can imagine how his weekly conversation was with the little manicured man with the handbag :-""""Hello Mark, how was your last week - did it go well for you? the way I saw your weekly minutes where one of your crew suggested raising interest rates. I gave you a list of targets to sell to the public as an excuse to not raise rates - the first was the unemployment target - that one was breached, so you then have to work your way down the list - you know how it goes, the 2nd on the list was external inflation and that is different and not UK core inflation (that's what you tell Joe public innit?).So anyhow, when you have worked your way down the list and exhausted all of them, I expect you to get creatrive on the ways to avoid raising rates - we have £1.79Trillion in Govmint debt remember.Oh and as a reminder, if you do raise rates - you will be looking for another job."""Now that we have a wet blanket in Osborne's old job, I imagine Hammond has perhaps less control over Carney - I dunno - Hammond is like the Neville Chamberlain of the modern world, he just wants to undermine the UK economy and appease the EU in the hope that he will develop his career when he gets the boot.Games -- Cynical? -- Me? -- Never!!!
Lupo di mare
25 Oct 2017
Re: Hotels Growth - Good for Premier Inn games - "On the coffee shop business -- I'm not sure the brand is everything these days, there are so many quirky little coffee shops opened in the last years that it's nice to frequent somewhere a bit different.."There certainly are, and it seems that whenever a retailer shuts down (and that's a regular occurrence), a coffee shop opens up in its place. In Winchester there are a dozen outlets just in the centre. The wife reckons Caffe Nero's the best, but some of the smaller ones have better coffee than the big chains.What does that mean for WTB? Fairly obvious. Wonder what the sp will do today. With interest rates possibly moving higher in the next couple of months (depending on whom you listen to), I'd say that this'll drift lower. Just hope that the other dark liquid will drift higher as I'm still heavily into it. Clue - you can't drink it.
gamesinvestor
24 Oct 2017
Re: Hotels Growth - Good for Premier Inn "But hey, we can all holiday in our local Premier Inns - we're not going to be able to afford to go anywhere else... "No chance m8, there is absolutely no danger of me sharing a bed with Lenny Henry.Also there is no breakfast unless you wander across the road to the less than appealing pub breakfast, much of which is cold by the time it's served up.On the coffee shop business -- I'm not sure the brand is everything these days, there are so many quirky little coffee shops opened in the last years that it's nice to frequent somewhere a bit different, in the same way that lots want to try a different beer (the Brewdog's and the like of the many micro brewery craze) than pouring tasteless Heineken or Budweiser down your throat.Someone once told me that drinking Budweiser (or insert any volume beer/lager here) is like making love in a canoe!!Games -- It's fxcking close to water!!
lotcangorong
24 Oct 2017
Re: Hotels Growth - Good for Premier Inn Corbyn as PM is a no-lose situation. As soon as there is the merest hint of an election I will sell everything I own. If Corbyn is elected I will buy back at my leisure at bargain basement prices. If not then business as usual, might miss the first few shoots of a comeback but so what. No doubt there is a flaw here but it is late in the day (for me), someone will have spotted it. Let me know.
Bill1703
24 Oct 2017
Re: Hotels Growth - Good for Premier Inn "Well I suppose you are spot on with the Corby part - if that happens we may be well advised to review our investment strategies -- to what, I have no idea at the moment apart from investing heavily offshore."Yes, if we get Corby in I suspect we'll have a lot more to worry about than our WTB shares... not least, we're going to need something a lot stronger than a double espresso to see us through a few winters of discontent... not to mention a series of distinctly unglorious summers to boot... But hey, we can all holiday in our local Premier Inns - we're not going to be able to afford to go anywhere else... I don't agree with Hardboy that it is - as yet - inevitable. Despite his growing "cult" status (yes, I spelled that correctly), there are major holes in both Corbyn's appeal and his programme, with which an even vaguely competent opposing campaign (ie. better than the last one) should be able to make hay. Dare I say it, Boris might be the best bet for that... he'd lie his ample backside off, of course, and make all sorts of unsubstantiated promises, which he'd likely never even try to deliver. But we are used to that... and it could be quite effective - just look at Trump!(and apologies to Lupo, though I did keep it WTB relevant... just about...)
Hardboy
24 Oct 2017
Re: Hotels Growth - Good for Premier Inn NB: "Moderate Labour MP's are keeping quiet, but once Corbyn is installed as Prime Minister they will ensure he does not go over the top."I hope you're right
