Bill1703
01 Jan 2018
Re: Top 10 Stocks - new Top 10 for 2018 As foreshadowed here and all relevant boards... 2018 trading from tomorrow, so time to repeat last year's "virtual portfolio" challenge. Same rules, as per the papers - equal weighted, valid for the whole year with no switching, full owning-up at year end! AACapitaConnect GroupGlaxoSmithKlineImperial BrandsITV Lloyds BankingMarks & SpencerStagecoachWPPI retain a bias toward UK exposure and 'Value' (the two closely related, obviously), with an expectation that the UK domestic outlook will clarify satisfactorily (if not wonderfully) this year. But it's no slam-dunk... and so hedged with a decent slug of overseas earnings and a general focus on "stock specific" stories - with LLOY the only real pure play on 'UK PLC' and associated sentiment. Ultimately, well aware that it's near-impossible to avoid losers as well as winners, I have asked the question - can I see 15% over 2018 (plus divis)? Without necessarily much help from the wider market. Four stocks stay in from 2017, with CPI, IMB, ITV and SGC still to justify their original inclusion and getting another chance (SGC was a close call). Bonmarche has done its job as "speculative" midcap retail play; VOD still looks fine to me but harder to see sufficient upside in either valuation or financial reporting; CARD and WTB were tougher choices, both still good for the long term IMHO but I see their respective attractions now more finely balanced against likely persisting near-term headwinds.I will doubtless be elaborating on the case for each of the "new" inclusions in the course of the year. FWIW stocks actively considered but failing to make the cut (as well as CARD and WTB): Braemar and SBRY (from my 2017 Top 10), then Aviva, BT, Debenhams, Gattaca, Merlin, Morrisons, Trinity Mirror.FYI I own 7 of the 10 stocks, with all of CPI (still!), WPP, GSK under active consideration (probably in that order). I'd be surprised if I didn't buy into at least one in the course of 2018.
Kool Keith
30 Dec 2017
Re: Top 10 Stocks for 2017 - Q4 & FY Update Hi Bill, chances we'll ever meet are slim to none, but I owe you a drink if we ever do.From your 10, I either got involved or was already, in Bonmarche, Vod (already had), Whitbread, Card, Imperial (already in) and Sainsbury(already in). So while I have other holdings the ones that you highlighted and I liked I think I'll be 100% wrong in taking credit for selecting, so big thank you Bon up 75+% since purchase, now why didn't I put all my eggs in that basket?I'm also up in AA, which is another highlighted during the year however, I have 2 holdings 1 longer terms the other purchased in recent drop and has a sell set at 180 which wasn't too far off hitting the other day.So, I for 1 am really looking forward to your 2018 picks and I wish you a profitable 2018.I'll save you the trouble, ( I understand) past performance is not indicative of future results 
Bill1703
29 Dec 2017
Top 10 Stocks for 2017 - Q4 & FY Update That's it for 2017, in market hours anyway, so it is time to tot up the final results for my previously published 2017 Top Ten... Q1 was not bad (in the end)... Q2 better, outperforming decently... Q3 not so much, a bit of a struggle throughout... and now a reasonable (if selective) Santa rally has delivered (belatedly) a decent enough Q4. It all means a positive absolute return for the year (+1.6%), albeit another good quarter for wider markets means I have underperformed the FTSE 100 by nearly 6% (and around 7% vs FTSE All-Share).But it's not the full story - I went heavy on income plays, with dividends (including a couple of "specials"
delivering a further 5.7%, around 50% more than the UK market yield. So I can point to a total portfolio return of 7.3% for the year - still below the 12% or so returned by the main UK indices, but somewhat nearer respectability - and preserving my status as (distinctly) average fund manager... making you some kind of return on your money, but not actually managing to beat, or even meet, an index.Star performer, after a pleasing (albeit slightly suspicious) late run, was one of my small-cap speculatives, Bonmarche - up 60% for 2017! Then, at the other end of the size scale, comes Vodafone, an 18% return reflecting a year of solid success... just ahead of Card Factory (up nearly 17% after a rollercoaster ride), although CARD just edges out VOD in total return terms (+26% vs +24%). After that, a good Q4 sees Whitbread end the year up 6%, after 'promising' something much worse for most of it. But that's it for gains, and 4 "winners" out of 10 doesn't really cut it, I concede. Both Sainsbury and Braemar ended near enough where they started (down just under 3%), but thereafter the disappointments pile up like roadkill... Imperial Brands falling 11%, ITV losing 20%, Stagecoach giving up 24% and Capita's year of woe and warnings means it brings up the rear, some 25% down - with some small solace that it's the only one I still don't own for real (but watch this space!) How to rationalise this performance picture? Well, looking back at my original post, it seems I predicted it up-front a year ago - I quote... "a vague attempt at balance and diversification across the list, though it's probably still a bit too exposed to the UK economy - and hence any further Brexit downturn. Probably inevitable, given my usual bias towards 'value' and aversion to buying into momentum."The hope was that the Brexit 'deal', and consequent UK economic outlook, would clarify - while there's finally some sign of that now, for most of the year it's remained mired in the mud of uncertainty and ungentlemanly exchange. There is the (related) theme of Value staying out of favour - albeit with 'green shoots' starting to appear just as the snow comes tumbling - and getting ever cheaper over the year as the market found reassurance in "reassuringly expensive" havens of Quality and Momentum. So what for 2018? "Double-down" on the combo of cheap UK and underappreciated Value, in the expectation (or 'hope'?) that "this time NEXT year, Rodney".... or capitulate and jump on the market bandwagon, trusting the wheels stay on for another 12 months? Anyone following my thoughts for any length of time will know the answer ... but either way, all will be formally revealed in due course with my Top Ten for 2018 - as I always promised, and likewise enourage others to participate.FWIW my 'real' portfolio fared better in 2017, up c.11.5% (total return c.15%). Nicely outperforming the FTSE 100 (+7.6%) and All-Share (+9.0%) in both price terms and their total returns of c.12-13%, though lagging the Global Market return of 20%. Given I've owned 9 of my Top 10 stocks for most of 2017 and I didn't set out to pick bad stocks, you can deduce much of my performance came from unexpected quarters - a good advert for diversification, of one's own thought processes and investment instincts as much as sectors and stocks!
nk1999
22 Dec 2017
Berenberg From Citywire yesterday:"Berenberg downplays Whitbread headwindsWhitbread (WTB) is an ‘attractive growth story’ and Berenberg says the headwinds facing the Costa Coffee and Premier Inn owner should not be of too much concern. Analyst Stuart Gordon retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of £49.00 on the stock, which was trading flat at £38.62 at the time of writing. He said Whitbread was ‘an attractive growth story that is being affected by two significant headwinds – weak like-for-like growth at Costa and the uncertainty about Brexit’. ‘While not wishing to trivialise either, we remain convinced that in the case of Costa, the ongoing structural growth is better than the company is being given credit for and that despite the recent attentions of an activist investor it would need a significant offer to make a sale in the interests of shareholders,’ he said."
Bill1703
08 Dec 2017
Re: Whitbread Jumps... broker view Commentary from Numis on the renewed break-up speculation - FWIW the analyst is extremely good on WTB. Edited highlights below:"In 2013 when JAB acquired DE Master Blenders and Peet’s coffee it was clear that there could be further consolidation in the fragmented coffee market. At that time Costa had grown EBIT at a 5y CAGR of 25% and was achieving lfl sales growth in the UK of 5%. The difficulty now is that growth has slowed and the potential to achieve such high multiples on a spin-off may have reduced with it. In 1H18 Costa’s EBIT was flat and we forecast the same for FY18 as a whole. Lfl sales growth has been uneven in recent quarters: in the 3m to Feb 17 lfls fell by -0.8% and in the most recent quarter growth was only 0.1%. Currently Costa's international business makes an EBIT of only c£7m (LTM) and margin of 4.4%, with scope to improve as investments in China mature....Notwithstanding these caveats, the sum of parts argument still has some credibility in our view. We note that Starbucks trades on a 2018 EV/EBITDA of 14.3x (Bloomerg estimates) and M&A in the sector has been at multiples over 15x. In contrast, WTB as a group trades on a FY19 EBITDA multiple of 8.8x and P/E of 15.0x, well below its cyclical high of 26x. We believe this partly reflects concerns on the UK consumer environment and is a response to a slowdown in EPS growth. Valuation implications: Note that each 1x EBITDA turn for Costa is £243m of equity value or 133p per share (3.5%). Assuming that hotels/restaurants continue to trade on c.9x but Costa is valued at 14x EBITDA would add £1.2bn to fair value or 670p (17% vs yesterday’s opening price of 3710p). The counter-argument is that the fundamental outlook remains weak and the combination of lfl sales growth of 1.7% (NUMe for FY18) and rising cost inflation will limit earnings growth to less than 3% this year."
Uncle Doug
08 Dec 2017
Re: Hotels Growth - Good for Premier Inn As I said after results end October when Sp was £36.80 - return to £40 is easy. £ still low which will attract tourists to Premier. Costa has some good recycling initiatives going on to attract the right on brigade. China will grow nicely. Property assets valued at 5.4Bn. Do Costa do food? Was in Greggs for lunch last Saturday and it was packed. Non stop queues of punters ordering cakes, sandwiches and pasties.
acsatix
08 Dec 2017
Re: Whitbread Jumps well the bloomberg article speculates the asset value cannot improve if in one or two years it is clear expansion in e.g. china of the coffe brand is successful... one can imagine that both hotel and coffe brands could see some improvements internationally... bloomberg seems to say the only way is down...one can take the other view. some put some money on this other view this week.
numberbiter
08 Dec 2017
Selling rum ..... to a 13yo girl being accompanied by an under-cover police officer is not very clever. In this case they were lucky to keep their licence.
lotcangorong
08 Dec 2017
Re: Whitbread Jumps Bloomberg: If Sachem Head is looking for a break up of Whitbread, it has probably left it too late. Both the investor and the company have missed the best moment to extract the maximum value from the company's portfolio, especially Costa.When Alison Brittain became CEO in December 2015, coffee shops were riding high on the back of a buoyant U.K. consumer. At the time, the unit was valued at as much as 4 billion pounds by analysts.What's more, if she had sold or demerged Costa two years ago from a position of strength, she would have had a good chance of being able to hold onto at least some of the proceeds to reinvest in the business.And, with significant M&A activity in the hotels industry, even more value might have been generated from a sale of Premier Inn to an acquisitive global hotel chain looking to fill gaps in their portfolio.Fast forward two years, and Costa's like-for-like sales growth has slowed significantly. Competition, particularly from Greggs and McDonalds at the lower end of the market, has ratcheted up, not to mention the fact you can't walk into a retailer these days without being offered a free coffee under some loyalty program or promotion.Meanwhile, with inflation outstripping wage growth, and the prospect of higher interest rates, the consumer is turning cautious.Today, analysts value Costa at closer to 2.5 billion pounds. And even if Whitbread were to get that money, an activist would be likely to demand the proceeds be returned to shareholders.Some surgery would still make sense. The company's breakup value could be more than 50 pounds a share, compared with Wednesday's closing price of just under 40 pounds. There could still be an opportunity to release value from Whitbread's portfolio of hotels: Credit Suisse analysts value the property assets at about 5.4 billion pounds.With a hedge fund likely to join the debate about what the company should look like, Brittain's strategy of continued expansion, with a sprinkling of cost-savings, should at last be given a good stir. I argued 18 months ago that Brittain should cut back her empire, only for her to rule out a breakup. The trouble for shareholders now is that the company's assets are looking not so much hot as tepid.
acsatix
07 Dec 2017
Strong Hold 
we are just at the beginning . do not sell.
Uncle Doug
07 Dec 2017
Whitbread Jumps >>>>>>>>>>>>>LONDON (Reuters) - Whitbread (WTB.L) shares jumped more than 7 percent on Wednesday after U.S.-based hedge fund Sachem Head Capital Management declared a 3.4 percent stake in the British hotel and coffee chain operator.Whitbread, owner of Costa Coffee and Premier Inn, has been the subject of break-up speculation in the past.Sachem Head has previously taken activist positions at companies, though it is unclear whether it will push for changes at the FTSE-100 leisure giant.The hedge fund has already met with Whitbread management, according to a person familiar with the matter.Before Wednesday’s jump, Whitbread shares were down nearly 2 percent this year, having risen in part on hopes that Premier Inn’s domestic hotels would benefit from foreign visitors cashing in on the weak pound. They fell back when those benefits turned out to be smaller than expected.The company warned in April of a tougher consumer environment, as rising inflation and muted wage growth forced consumers to rein in spending.The shares closed about 7.5 percent higher at 3,990 pence.Sachem Head, with about $4 billion (£3 billion) in assets under management, was founded in 2013 by Scott Ferguson, one of a number for former partners at Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management who have launched their own funds.The New York-based firm has been popular with investors, both because of its steady run of positive returns and the fact Ferguson, who shies away from being called an activist, largely stays out of the headlines.>>>>>>>>>>>>>
acsatix
06 Dec 2017
Short squeeze Don’t u love all these shorts taking cover... can u smell their blood??
acsatix
05 Dec 2017
Re: Share price yes analysts who can raise the tp by 10p on shares with 40 £ deserve admiration...
lotcangorong
05 Dec 2017
Re: Share price Luckily I am aided here by JP Morgan Cazenove whose laser-like focus on the share price can get within 10p:Thu, 26th October 2017 - 09:20 JP Morgan Cazenove today reaffirms its neutral investment rating on Whitbread PLC (LON:WTB) and raised its price target to 4010p (from 4000p).
gamesinvestor
08 Nov 2017
Re: Share price "So you must think the WTB SP is going to rise from here, Games?"Nah m8 -- it's a wind up - the premium on a PUT with a 2800 strike would be miniscule anyhow.Still - dropped another 2% today.Games -- 2800's in the big innit?
