penhome
10 Oct 2017
Re: Shift to upwards momentum? Hi ElvironI agree with a lot of what you say, particularly the significance of prior extremes on the RSI/other indicators and also symmetry on the MACD-H movements.How informative do you find the 14 day slow Stochs? Is this one of your preferred indicators?I think most of our to and fro last night originated from my platform (investing.com / sharepad / Hargreaves etc) using a different data feed to iii which means we're looking at different RSI indictator levels and seeing different things.Anyway, good luck with your investing and analysisPen
Elviron1
10 Oct 2017
Re: Kalan Ah, ok - no you won't have a problem with £5k.I am very much of the same mind as you - every trade must be managed with full attention and risk management to increase the %win rate. Extremely hard to do in practice and I am very much still learning.It has to be a balance though between letting winners run, if the chart doesn't show stumbling blocks, and taking profits. Snatching at profits before they mature is just as much a risk as poor risk management - not that I'm saying you're doing that here.Interesting that - turn £1k into £1 million if you can make 20% interest on the compound amount each month. But you'll notice that the big gains are heavily weighted to the final year or so! Once you're trading with £200,000 plus a month, there is no jumping nimbly in and out of small cap shares for a quick profit!
KALAN
10 Oct 2017
Re: Kalan Elviron - my quantities are much lower than yours - tend to buy in £2000 to £5000 chunks so not anticipating a problem.I just posted about 20% being a good return on VRS. Looking for the multibagger is great and exciting but can lose you money more often than not. the secret is not to lose on any trade if you can help it and take profits where you are not confident of continuing to hold. i.e. where hope takes over from expectation.4x20% trades compounded will double your money. This could happen just in one share such as WRES. £1,000 in up 20% cash in. re-invest in WRES or elsewhere and another 20% etc. 4 times in a year will double your money.Double the amount each year for 10 years and you have a million.It should be possible to do one trade a month at 20% profit. Do this repeatedly and you become a millionaire from £1,000 in three and a half years. Simple Lol.
Elviron1
10 Oct 2017
Kalan A re-post, in case it got lost in the many posts about charts!Banking a decent profit of say 20% plus is a reasonable strategy in most people's books.However, you may find that buying back in, depending on the amount you have available to invest of course, is more difficult than you anticipate. I certainly found that this was so when I tried to re-purchase £50k+ at sub-0.4 after the first peak about a month ago. In the end I only succeeded in getting £40k's worth, before the bid went above 0.4p - and I was trying to buy from 0.37p.Point being that if you wait for confirmation of support you may find yourself faced with the choice of buying at 0.4p+ or not at all. We'll see of course - doesn't happen the same every time, but there will be a number of people, with cash, watching and waiting currently. The first to jump in will get the cheapest price, and those that follow will pay more.
Elviron1
10 Oct 2017
Re: Shift to upwards momentum? Pen,In the end it doesn't really matter what the quality of the iii charts are, as long as they are consistent - i.e. historical lows on the RSI are indicative of future lows. And I've used them to good effect.Yes, I already explained that I meant the MACD histogram, not the MACD. Again I look back across the histogram at previous patterns and I use them to inform going forwards. I'm not really interested in the MACD or MACD histogram to be honest as I find I work better with other indicators.I use the 14 day slow stochs."price crossing a moving average has some significance" - this is a very simplistic interpretation that suits your current purpose! The significance is dependent on duration, magnitude of breach and previous price development. On that basis, I re-iterate that it is not significant currently.In fact, it may well turn out to be the best buying opportunity that you will get! It's never easy calling the bottom or entering when sentiment is at it's lowest.
penhome
09 Oct 2017
Re: Shift to upwards momentum? Elvironiii charts are very poor quality and not good enough to be used for analysis. I agree that iii's chart is showing price below the line which I assume is set at 30. Unfortunately this just means that iii's chart is both inaccurate and wrong.The MACD-Histogram is in negative territory because the MACD is below its signal line. This is quite different to claiming that the MACD is in "deeply negative territory" when it hasn't even crossed below zero.I can't comment on your view of the stochastic. You posted that "Slow stochs - fast indicator is touching the 20% line, with the slow rapidly following" so I don't know if you are using the slow stochastic, the fast stochastic or the full stochastic oscillator as I do not know your settings. Which are you using?Fast Stochastic Oscillator:Fast %K = %K basic calculationFast %D = 3-period SMA of Fast %KSlow Stochastic Oscillator:Slow %K = Fast %K smoothed with 3-period SMASlow %D = 3-period SMA of Slow %KFull Stochastic Oscillator:Full %K = Fast %K smoothed with X-period SMAFull %D = X-period SMA of Full %KIn the overall scheme of things, I do think that price crossing a moving average has some significance so I pay attention to it.Pen
Elviron1
09 Oct 2017
Re: Shift to upwards momentum? Penholme,I'm using the iii charts - just two or so clicks away for you! The iii charts clearly show the RSI below the 30 line.Ah yes, my bad, I was referring to the MACD histogram which I find gives an earlier signal than the MACD and is basically all-round a better indicator. The MACD histogram is deeply negative and I would argue is on the cusp of flattening out - symmetry with the recent peak being a logical supporting argument for that theory.No comment on the stochs, so I take it you agree there?A single close just below the 50 day means diddly squat as I'm sure you probably know, especially since it was a relatively flat day.
penhome
09 Oct 2017
Re: Shift to upwards momentum? ElvironIt's a pity you can't publish your chart as I have no idea where your readings are coming from.The daily RSI(14) for the close today was 41.3558 - nowhere near being below 30 - and so has quite a way to go before it can be considered 'oversold'The MACD is not in negative territory - it hasn't even crossed below its zero line yet and certainly isn't beginning to flatten out. The MACD-Histogram is still dropping which indicates that downward momentum is increasing with the MACD pulling away from its signal line, its 9ema.The MACD also doesn't have a 'bottom' - unlike the RSI, the MACD is an unbounded oscillator and can go where it wants without any restriction.If/when the MACD crosses below its zero line, this means that the shorter 12ema has crossed below its 26ema - this in itself is a bearish signalI've highlighted these points on this chart which also shows that WRES closed below its 50sma today for the first time since July - another bearish signal[link] just my view and opinion. I also haven't used the word 'negative' in my postings. I merely said that the chart was looking "a bit bearish"Pen
Elviron1
09 Oct 2017
Re: Shift to upwards momentum? Ok, the RSI has gone below 30 - at approx. 28. A quick look back shows that sometimes it bottoms out a little lower (10), but sometimes it bottoms out at about 25 or so. Either way it's pretty low at the moment.MACD - same again, in deeply negative territory with the gradient starting to flatten out.Slow stochs - fast indicator is touching the 20% line, with the slow rapidly following. It could be a couple of days or less before the fast bottoms and crosses the slow. More important than any of the above is the price bumping into a rising 50 day with the 200 not far below.
penhome
09 Oct 2017
Re: Shift to upwards momentum? I'm just trying to understand why you think they are "nearly at rock bottom"
Elviron1
09 Oct 2017
Re: Shift to upwards momentum? Penholme - those indicators are freely available on iii, or any other online share website.
Elviron1
09 Oct 2017
Re: Downwards momentum? Banking a decent profit of say 20% plus is a reasonable strategy in most people's books.However, you may find that buying back in, depending on the amount you have available to invest of course, is more difficult than you anticipate. I certainly found that this was so when I tried to re-purchase £50k+ at sub-0.4 after the first peak about a month ago. In the end I only succeeded in getting £40k's worth, before the bid went above 0.4p - and I was trying to buy from 0.37p.Point being that if you wait for confirmation of support you may find yourself faced with the choice of buying at 0.4p+ or not at all. We'll see of course - doesn't happen the same every time, but there will be a number of people, with cash, watching and waiting currently. The first to jump in will get the cheapest price, and those that follow will pay more.
penhome
09 Oct 2017
Re: Shift to upwards momentum? ElvironCould you post your chart so that I can see your indicators? Daily chart with RSI and MACD is enough.Pen
Elviron1
09 Oct 2017
Re: Shift to upwards momentum? Hi Penholme,Ok, so I don't get how you figure that they are negative. Both the MACD and RSI are nearly at rock bottom.
penhome
09 Oct 2017
Re: Shift to upwards momentum? Hi ElvironPeriod parameters are standard and specified on the chart - 14 for RSI and 12/26/9 for MACD.Pen
