II Editor
13 Sep 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Top stock picks for 2018! "They say the build-up to Christmas begins earlier each year but, in truth, it always seems to swing into gear about now. The summer holidays are over, the kids are back at school and thoughts turn to the office Christmas party. But the team at ..."[link]
II Editor
13 Sep 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Top stock picks for 2018! "They say the build-up to Christmas begins earlier each year but, in truth, it always seems to swing into gear about now. The summer holidays are over, the kids are back at school and thoughts turn to the office Christmas party. But the team at ..."[link]
Bill1703
13 Sep 2017
Re: Interestin' piece in the FT ... "... please... no. Let's leave the boring compliance and regulatory stuff to the brokers... Obviously a BIT of justification is always worthwhile..."You are quite right, of course, LKH... having worked in said environment only fairly recently, these boards are a breath of fresh air... albeit with a bit of hot air, interspersed. So a broking environment of circa 1987 rather than 2017... much more free and easy and conducive to honest and open expression. And if it allows the odd charlatan to flourish with relative impunity, so be it.... present company excluded, naturally!So I am chastised, though not entirely chastened (or is it t'other way around?)... as you allude to, I will continue to encourage justification and/or illustration wherever possible. I always try to "show my workings" (and would always do so on demand, if not), and I make no apology for wanting to see much more of the same...
LK Hyman
12 Sep 2017
Re: Interestin' piece in the FT ... Bill," I often think we should have the same discipline and compliance oversight when it comes to these boards"Jaysus, m8, please .... no. Let's leave the boring compliance and regulatory stuff to the brokers. On these boards what counts is not justification or discipline or (God help us!) "oversight" (quis custodiet ipsos custodes?) but merely an interesting slant on individual companies, whether it supports or opposes one's own predisposition.Obviously a BIT of justification is always worthwhile, though personally I don't need much justification when someone whose views I respect posts 'em.LKH on the flybridge still lookin' for a home for that cash
Bill1703
12 Sep 2017
Re: Interestin' piece in the FT ... "... they are brokers m8, they don't have logical thought patterns or they wouldn't hold down a real job..."Games - au contraire, almost always logical... too much so sometimes, can tend to the inflexible. But these days, the heavy hand of the regulatory regime and compliance officers tends to enforce a high degree of logicality and consistency.But as for holding down a real job... yes, you may have a point, always had that feeling myself - and I should know, trust me!JDS - as above... with the prevailing compliance culture these days, most brokers - if stocks are hitting price targets, whether on the upside or downside - are under a degree of pressure to address this, within a reasonably short timeframe... either change your target, or change your recommendation (if it is an active one, either way). Yes, sometimes - in a situation such as this - they will retain a negative stance, and cut their price target... but often they won't, and they will move to a more neutral recommendation.And it is not as easy as just plucking another price target out of thin air - however much it looks that way to cynical private punters, who typically never see the full research reports. The regulatory regime - and indeed, their clients - demand a hig degree of consistency and transparency when it comes to methodology for setting price targets... and any change to the latter needs to be very carefully justified and explained, in full published detail!I know many will scoff at all this... but trust me, that's how it works! Not that I really care whether you trust me or not ... you can take a horse to water, but you cannot... etc, etc. But FWIW, I often think we should have the same discipline and compliance oversight when it comes to these boards, and any views, recommendations, price targets expressed therein! Not that is particularly practical, of course - but it is a nice idea IMHO!
gamesinvestor
12 Sep 2017
Re: Interestin' piece in the FT ... Johan, They are brokers m8, they don't have logical thought patterns or they would hold down a real job.Games
Johandesilva
10 Sep 2017
Re: Interestin' piece in the FT ... "most pessimistic brokers have 265 - most optimistic have 450.That's a potential downside of 9%"---Should the share price go to the brokers 265p target, what baffles me is that the same broker suddenly slaps a new price target even lower than this. Why did they not slap the lower target to begin with.
gamesinvestor
08 Sep 2017
Re: Interestin' piece in the FT ... "Apart from that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?"indeed LK, Mrs Lincoln would be right to look on BT with some trepidation given the 4 less than desirable aspects of the company.Still on the 4 issues -- 1. OFCOM's cop out last year to all intents and purposes left OpenReach with BT and still a relative cash cow.2. The CEO -- well they come and go don't they -- I sometimes wonder if you'd be better off without one at all -- in the AA's case it would, wouldn't it?, as the risk of punching someone would have been zero.3. The EE thingy, which I wasn't a fan of and partly the reason I sold at 449 is turning out to be potentially quite profitable.4. The pension thing is a bit of a nightmare but BT generates so much cash that it's very manageable - and if interest rates rise a bit the story may well change very positively.I'm watching it fall now to 282 -- 38% below what I dumped it at.Games -- keeping the powder dry for now but I think it's getting close to entry point -- most pessimistic brokers have 265 - most optimistic have 450.That's a potential downside of 9% and an upside of -- well 38% just above the price I dumped it at -- maybe I could get two bites at the cherry for once !!
Bill1703
08 Sep 2017
Re: Interestin' piece in the FT ... O/T ... "Personally I'm trying to position mesen heavily in value stocks..."Exactly, LKH... I am more than ever convinced that all conditions (market, economics, politics) are highly conducive to 'value' being the way to go - from here, and for the true long termers... as always, it's near-impossible to say exactly when this particular cycle starts to turn.I am largely now positioned this way myself, have been gradually going this way for a while... but not entirely, of course. Which is why your ULVR makes good sense to me... I am likewise holding on to a few things which have done very well, and continue to perform. If I had all my eggs in the 'value' basket, while I think it may well pay off handsomely on a, say, 2-3yr view, it would be painful indeed to watch it struggle, just for the moment... patient though I always try to be. Some kind of portfolio balance is surely sensible.Of course, within 'value' you still have to pick at least some of the right stocks... or more pertinently, avoid those (or too many thereof) which will get exposed as the true munters. Much easier said than done... sadly...WPP still 'value' monster rather than munter for me... though I am not rushing it. Sure these are all people and relationship businesses, and can blow up in a heartbeat - as my old "boss" (albeit indirectly) Siegmund Warburg used to observe, reputations are earned hard over years and lost easily overnight. Or something like that... and probably in German. But Bell Pott is one company... Sorrell has hundreds of 'em!
LK Hyman
08 Sep 2017
Re: Interestin' piece in the FT ... O/T ... Bill,"Personally I'm trying to position mesen heavily in value stocks"Please don't say "How does your investment in Unilever fit in with that then?"LKH on the flybridge and I did sell Diageo
Bill1703
08 Sep 2017
Re: Interestin' piece in the FT ... O/T BT "Have you looked at BT lately? ... it's looking very cheap now despite the issues..."Interesting one, Games - now I haven't really, but I have thought a couple of times recently that I probably ought to!I have no doubt, it will screen as cheap... possibly screamingly so? Given the issues, and in this unforgiving, paranoid market, it cannot help but do so.I will have a detailed look at some point ... one issue for me will be, it will have to join the list of compellingly cheap stocks that I am currently considering, and I would have to weigh up my telecoms exposure, on top of my VOD position.And I do have a concern that they keep paying huge amounts for the rights to various sports that I can't watch... cos I refuse to pay for them, given I already give Mr Murdoch far too much of my hard-earned. Which in itself worries me that BT's strategy here may be doomed to failure....
LK Hyman
08 Sep 2017
Re: Interestin' piece in the FT ... Games,"it's looking very cheap now despite the issues ..."Apart from that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play?LKH on the flybridge
gamesinvestor
07 Sep 2017
Re: Interestin' piece in the FT ... Bill -- Have you looked at BT lately?I sold out in Feb2015 at 449 but it's looking very cheap now despite the issues related to OpenReach, The Italian Accounting, The CEO and the EE integration.Games
Bill1703
07 Sep 2017
Re: Interestin' piece in the FT ... "@Bill what have you been selling to buy AA, ITV and considering to buy this?"JDS - I have been sitting on a fairly large cash pile, for a while now - various reasons. Probably excessive, it has certainly eaten into my overall returns over the past year - though I've still done pretty nicely, and a decent chunk of that cash I have sitting in USD, so i have made quite a big return on that element too!Though I have also taken slices out of two or three of my smaller cap holdings, which have done very well over time - largely to rebalance them to less outsized holdings.And I have only taken a very small position in AA - as yet... and quite consciously a speculative one. But I am still watching it closely, will quite likely buy more if conditions are conducive.I agree, there are plenty of "bargains" currently - it's a 'value' and/or contrarian investor's market, without doubt. The two caveats being... first, there are undoubtedly a few 'value traps' lurking among them, and not always easy to spot them until it's too late. And second... as every value investor knows, you have to be prepared to be "wrong" for a while yet, with the timescales of things turning always intrinsically precarious to predict.Not sure about LLOY... there are quite a few stocks currently on P/Es around 9x and with chunky dividends, and there is quite of list of things still to worry about there. Probably at least mostly in the price now, I agree... but not sure it is one you need to be in, as yet...
bamboozled
07 Sep 2017
Re: Wait For A Tenner ... You're not related to Magoo100 are you?
