Eadwig
28 May 2017
Re: Chart Analysis Our Haven,"Not a great chartest myself but what better advert for their software."!Neither am I, by any stretch of the imagination. But, this software is available for free through interactive investor, and I've been trying to find time to go over hundreds of old predictions to see if any of what they call 'classic pattern' types of chart have any sort of validity. that I mean, enough statistical 'hits' to be worth taking notice of when one pops up.So far, I've been going sector by sector, and there was little to recommend the software. However, I had noticed just one type of pattern that appeared to be correct more frequently than others. Just about enough of an indication to keep me interested.As I moved into different sectors, I saw that the number of correct predictions (or very close ones) grew. I now am searching, when I can find the time, which isn't often, for perhaps some sectors where the patterns work better than others, as well as which patterns are worth taking note of.I would not that if Recognia thought their software could consistently make money for people following them, then they would have the historical data displayed with each new prediction E.g. "We've been correct 50% of the time with this type of pattern prediction".They don't, and that probably speaks volumes in itself.I have noted circumstances, even within the same pattern, where accuracy seems to be more likely. I'm now (again when I get time, which is not often) about to go back through the hundreds I already checked for outcomes, and list and re-rank them depending on certain aspects of the data being used, as well as company size and sector.Even if I just find one type, where such an alert gives you a slight edge, it could be worth while. Of course, one reason Recognia don't give out the stats themselves is they may be tweaking the software continually, in which case that will mess up my research.Hopefully, I've included enough caveats with my few posts about their predictions that they are taken as nothing more than an indicator of the possibilities. Just one possibility that investors might take into account.Should I find anything statistically significant in the future I will post about it, but am likely to contact Recognia first to see if they can double-check any findings before I start posting them.
Our Haven
26 May 2017
Re: Chart Analysis Not a great chartest myself but what better advert for their software.Thanks Eadwig
Eadwig
26 May 2017
Re: Chart Analysis There's no denying their software nailed this one! Eadwig, 6th April "I've never found this service particularly good, although if one type of pattern has produced predictions a little more consistently than others it has been those of the 'continuation' type, which this one is. "[link] Wizz Air Holdings PLC forms bullish "Continuation Diamond" chart patternApr 05, 2017Recognia has detected a "Continuation Diamond (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on Wizz Air. This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of 1,684.00 to the range of 2,249.00 - 2,377.00. The pattern formed over 361 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis."
Eadwig
26 May 2017
Re: Results "With all this great news, any sign of a Div? "Same response as I gave below. They are focussed on growth, and that is where every penny is going to go for a while yet. I think I'm correct in saying they have more jets on order than they are currently operating.Much less exposed to sterling than Easyjet, being Hungarian. Lots fewer flights in and out of the UK than Ryan Air as well. The only time they ever handle sterling is on flights between UK and Europe, which is a small portion of the overall business. I'm betting they are paying their Eastern European crews much less too.Powerful climber today as well, when one might be forgiven for expecting some profit taking.Need another profits warning that apparently disappears into nothing to get back in at a reasonable price. I doubt the market will react so heavily to such a slight warning in future, though.If I were still holding, I'd be inclined to take some off the table at these prices though @2312p. You have to take profits somewhere when its a pure growth story.I'm sure holders will have their own views on that, and I'm definitely not going to put a sell recommendation by them when I'm not holding myself, having taken profits too early. Much too early, it turns out.
Our Haven
26 May 2017
Re: Results Rise continues and good volume. Looks like lift off!
Our Haven
25 May 2017
Re: Results Same question I asked before Mr Write. You would have thought that they would entertain a small div payment. I know it is early on for them but as I said before it would increase the investor base and of course the share price. Perhaps the last point is currently the problem coupled of course with their need to invest for their expansion plans but cash looks healthy. No point in them borrowing the money in the marketplace when they can have it by not paying any div.
Mr Wight
25 May 2017
Re: Results With all this great news, any sign of a Div?
Our Haven
25 May 2017
Re: Results Of course now it has hit a all time high, all be it early days after a increase of 32% in around four months should profit be taken. I think I will wait and see how it settles.
Our Haven
25 May 2017
Results You could almost ask why the warning but at least it let me in on the falling share price. Good numbers all round, increased passenger numbers, increased ticket revenue despite us and Brexit hit on sterling, good increase to the cash at bank and uplift to the outlook.
Our Haven
25 Apr 2017
Re: Back In @1580p Hi Eadwig If you look at all the low cost carriers they are strongly correlated over this time period therefore it just looks like a sector rise.
Eadwig
25 Apr 2017
Re: Back In @1580p Sold a couple of days ago on a limit order @1710p, actually received @1713p which shows it was on its way up quickly when it triggered. Got that badly wrong. 8% in 10 weeks isn't too bad, but it seems it after WIZZ hit @1800p today.I'm back in the Uk at the moment and been too busy to keep up with things so no idea where this big price jump has come from, certainly wasn't expecting it and thought I'd missed my chance for a while when I brought my limit order down from @1725p. Perhaps some analyst upgrade(s) or maybe some news leaked that the revised figures will be at the higher end of the lower expectation range when the results are released. Price almost back to where it was on the profit warning.Now, of course, I have seller's remorse, and am hoping its volatile enough for me to get back in a lot lower!My flight on Good Friday was pretty full although a few premium seats near the front were not taken and quite a lot of kids paying half price. I was too close to the the front to see how the in-flight sales were going, but they were definitely making some. The sandwich/meal deal is looking a bit tired these days and could be widened a little perhaps. They give very good exchange rates on the plane, I noticed on my previous trip and there seem to be more customers buying on the plane than there used to be.The new price options on the web site are a bit confusing, especially if you already have a discount membership. I think they need to get a grip on what they're offering really. It feels to me like they're not quite sure what gives the best return so and so keep changing which gets very annoying, all the extras adding up are hard enough to follow as it is and unless you're travelling very light what you end up paying is nothing like the quoted flight price in the end. The old A320 was rattling a bit worryingly on take off, but the flight left and arrived on time to the minute - which is unusual. Normally if that flight leaves on time you arrive 20 minutes early.I noticed the magazine was announcing new flights into Frankfurt - that's a major hub airport so that could be the start of something very big for them if they can start shuttling people into there for major international flights. Its the obvious hub for most people from Eastern Europe, so it might be a strategy we haven't previously heard about. Anyway, I'm sure I'll be back at some point. There's a lot of growth to come here, its all about how they keep their costs down - and air crew from Eastern Europe will be costing them a lot less than Ryanair, Easyjet and that Norwegian low cost airline are paying.
II Editor
13 Apr 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Why Shell was kicked out of this top-performing portfolio "With stockmarkets on both sides of the Atlantic still riding high as the second quarter of 2017 rolls on, equities are still the place to be, it seems. Certainly broker Panmure Gordon thinks so. We rounded up its views on Q2 last week, so we ..."[link]
Eadwig
06 Apr 2017
Chart Analysis For what it's worth. A 'classic chart' pattern, predicting a rise in share price at some point over the next 361 trading days to a point of 35%-40% above where it is now.I've never found this service particularly good, although if one type of pattern has produced predictions a little more consistently than others it has been those of the 'continuation' type, which this one is. However, it's a complex one over a very long period, so I would say that this one has a low probability rating in terms of its prediction accuracy.[link] Air Holdings PLC forms bullish "Continuation Diamond" chart patternApr 05, 2017Recognia has detected a "Continuation Diamond (Bullish)" chart pattern formed on Wizz Air Holdings PLC (WIZZ:LSE). This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of 1,684.00 to the range of 2,249.00 - 2,377.00. The pattern formed over 361 days which is roughly the period of time in which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard principles of technical analysis.Tells Me: The price has broken upward out of a consolidation period, suggesting a continuation of the prior uptrend. The pattern begins during a downtrend as prices create higher highs and lower lows in a broadening pattern. Then the trading range gradually narrows after the highs peak and the lows start trending upward. When the price breaks upward out of the diamonds boundary lines, it marks the resumption of the prior uptrend.This bullish pattern can be seen on the following chart and was detected by Recognia proprietary pattern recognition technology."I include it just for general interest, really. I would say that WiZZ reporting numbers for FY to March 31 that fall within the upper end of the revised profit guidance it gave would be a much stronger signal, although not strong enough to reach the kind of target talked about here, I think.There is a good chance of that given the '12 month rolling figures' we saw in the March passenger figures. Certainly many of the metrics will be well up on last year's record figures, but whether or not the profit figure will be up enough is harder to tell.I still think its a reasonable punt at any pullback below @1650, and a strong buy if it falls below @1600. Europe has been showing strong signs of a recovery and for many Eastern European workers this is the airline of choice, or in the top 3, for Eastern Europeans working in Western Europe.- or re-locating from the UK ...
Eadwig
05 Apr 2017
Re: Numbers I really don't know. They have big plans to keep growing, and most companies like that don't pay dividends, or only a very small one, because generally they're not only reinvesting all their profit but they're borrowing on top too.Its never a great idea to be paying dividends when you are borrowing, I think, although plenty of companies do it.I think WIZZ will become a dividend stock eventually. Easyjet, for example, pays a sizeable dividend after its first year of none growth, paying over 5% yield on Fy 2016 I believe, but leading up to that their dividends were relatively small.They too were once building a new, disruptive, low cost airline growing as fast as they could. Few companies can grow for ever and need to begin paying back their investors at some point once the growth slows. They usually start paying a small dividend as they see their growth plans reaching fruition in the medium term. Once they start paying a dividend, it is usual to increase it a little each year, which means less profits to invest in further growth.I dunno, probably if you search Wizz's prospectus, they might say something about future divi intentions. I've not bothered looking because dividends don't generally interest me - especially in airlines who tend to run into trouble sooner or later in my experience.
Our Haven
05 Apr 2017
Re: Numbers Eadwig, the point you make about a growth only stock I totally understand but just like Dart do you think they will introduce a small element of dividend in the next 24 months. This stock will never be seen as a income stock but in introducing a small dividend as Dart did, it widened the investor base. Good numbers from Dart this morning by the way.
