wuffet
04 Feb 2015
Re: Interim Management Statement HiyaIf they confirm profit before tax of £40m for the year the shares will goes stratospheric, given that last year profit before tax was £25m!!Good luck
Tenobas
04 Feb 2015
Interim Management Statement Coming up?I expect guidance in the region of pbt £40m.If the market likes that then exploit it.
The buzz
20 Jan 2015
Anoher Good Day After yesterday's rise following the BAE Systems order, the rise has continued again this morning. Currently 172.25-177p. Clearly WIN are in demand. It is back to increasing business so the extra bit of profit is cream after paying the overheads such as pension payments.The B
Tenobas
24 Dec 2014
Re: Not yet I said GROSS pension liability present value.Does anyone know the gross pension liability, i.e. the assets plus the deficit?
Blanketstacker
24 Dec 2014
Re: Not yet nk and Ms G, I think you may both be right here. I have a little experience of this company. Cracking people to work for! In the short term this must fall: the figures are appalling and they are effectively now dependent on the goodwill of the banks. But the contracts they hold, and their workforce, are excellent assets.The company will pull through, and should prosper longer term. (I do not hold, but formerly did).
Penman100
23 Dec 2014
Pension Deficit The accounting deficit is one measure and the formal triennial valuation due as at 31.3.14 will probably see the deficit increase from 2011 level (over £200m is likely), but on an even more prudent basis.Then on a buy-out basis you are probably looking at £500m deficit at least - but not so relevant as the Company probably intend to run it off themselves (until a miracle comes along or they have some cash spare). Remember they are hedging interest rates and inflation for about 30% of the liabilities and this will increase as funding improves.There there may be room for a token dividend in 2016, but likely to be set at a very low level (say 3p a year initially). All in my view and from a pensions background and as a modest shareholder.
nk1999
23 Dec 2014
Re: Not yet ..target 250p.(LG, in response to your baseless and useless target.... my equally baseless target, but somewhat more likely considering fundamentals).
lambrini girl
23 Dec 2014
Re: Not yet target 80p..
nk1999
23 Dec 2014
Re: Not yet Tenobas,Some points from H1 results (last published statement) for your consideration:- Pension deficit was £143m (not £2bn mentioned by you)- Debt was significantly down to much more manageable level.- H1 underlying EPS was over 10p. So the P/E is very low. - Dividend could be restored relatively soon, giving a push to SP.And all that even does not take into account the fall in oil prices. So I think and hope that we are nowhere near the top yet. Just my view.nk
Tenobas
23 Dec 2014
Not yet I would like to trade these on the way down.I think the boost due to oil prices is not fully played out.The longer oil stays down the longer the once off gains on closed book contracts.It is also worth considering the impact of lower oil prices on pension deficits.The company has not told us the gross pension liability but it is unlikely to be below £2bn PV.Possibly accumulated inflation will be lower by 3% until the oil price fall is reversed.If it were never reversed then the gain would be £60m so use a value of say £30m.Add to this the £16m from closed book contracts : £45m This is nearly 40p per share.So we must be fairly close to the top.
Tenobas
24 Nov 2014
Re: early xmas present Thanks, and it looks to be about 50% overall. Open book: 69% in the Contract Logistics side.The fuel costs are about 30% of vehicle costs, say 25% of total costs: 50% of 25% of £1,000m.With an 8% fuel price reduction that is £10m.That correlates rather well with the £16m increase in market value.
Bobbydazzler
21 Nov 2014
Hi all.A lot of wincanton customers are on a fuel escalator so when the fuel price increases and drops so does the customers cost per mile.
wuffet
21 Nov 2014
early xmas present Hi all,I know it's a bit early to mention Xmas but I just wanted to praise the stock that keeps on giving, up 15%+ over the last 2 weeks. Good volume today as well as the price rise. Just a point of the fuel, it depends I think on the mix of open and closed book contracts as to what benefit Win get from fuel reductions, as well volume increases from customers etc.It may be that the reduced likelihood of an interest rate rise until say 2015 has also helped what is still (though less so now) a relatively highly geared company. For me not a zombie company although if it is I wish I had more of them as a 400%+ rise in the last 2 years beats most 'fashionable' companies.Good luck
Tenobas
21 Nov 2014
Re: WIN Chart Breakout. Very Bullish I guess the important question is
o WIN's contracts charge separately for fuel. If by the charging formula the customers effectively pay for the fuel then WIN benefits not at all.The accounts suggest that the price of fuel is not hedged and this weakly suggests that fuel is charged separately."Effective portion of changes in fair value of cash flow hedges (0.2) (0.7)"
nk1999
21 Nov 2014
Re: WIN Chart Breakout. Very Bullish I guess the main issues are:- No dividend - Let us hope they restart soon- Pension deficit - Rally in equity markets and incease in interest rates next year should help- NAV - Do we need rights issue to repair the balance sheet and pension deficit? - Debt - Falling?Anyway, I am a happy holder for now.nk
