Tenobas
29 May 2015
Pension issues I note that in recent days yields on most bonds are sharply up.I am interested in how this would affect pension deficits.I think there are two major effects:1) For funds that are about to be invested/reinvested in bonds it should reduce the deficit.2) For funds already invested then if the maturities are matched to the liabilities then there should be no effect. Possibly however there may be mark to market rules which would increase the nominal deficit.
Tenobas
26 Mar 2015
Oh Dear I said 'Not yet'.But unfortunately the day was yesterday.The Trading Update is due within 8 days.The likely position is that if the underlying operating profit is more than 2% below £48m then an explanation would be called for. They have defined their expectations there and above is easily explained but below is inexcusable.Also, the iii Company Fundamentals show P/E of 6.33 but the figure I use is closer to 20 so this share is highly exposed.
Tenobas
20 Mar 2015
Ambush? Somebody sells £223K of shares and then chaos reigns on only £50K of sales.Sweep stake on where the price will be on Monday morning?I want the tickets for 162p, 163p.
nk1999
23 Feb 2015
Contract News From UK-Analyst:"Supply chain firm Wincanton (WIN) has seen kitchen and joinery specialist, Magnet, renew its national home delivery and transport contract with the business. The long-term renewal sees the continuation of Wincanton's two man home delivery and transportation service from Magnet's North East manufacturing plant in Darlington to Magnet's UK wide customers via strategic distribution sites, handling almost 40,000 deliveries of kitchen furniture, appliances and internal joinery products a year. Broker Numis put a target price of 200p on the shares earlier in the month. Wincanton finished up by 2.62p at 170.5p."nk
Tenobas
11 Feb 2015
Eric Born Must have got drunk in the pub.
Tenobas
10 Feb 2015
Re: Telegraph- Questor Close:"I expect guidance in the region of pbt £40m.If the market likes that then exploit it."(PBT excludes pension revaluations.).The reason why I expected guidance in the region of £40m was because I thought that they would make £8m of short term exceptional profit on their closed book contracts which are up to 1/3rd of their business.They now CLAIM that they will not make short term profits.That is my main issue.My opinion is at £40m buy otherwise sell.It would not surprise me at all if they come in well above £27m in order to ambush the market.(Where does the £27m come from?)There appears to be a lot of management of expectations here so beware.I repeat: SELL.
wuffet
09 Feb 2015
Re: Telegraph- Questor HiyaWith all due respect mate you appear to have absolutely no idea what you are talking about!! I only last week you were saying the company was about to state that £50m pbt was likely, now you are asking how the broker estimates £27m pbt . You are completely clueless about how the market works.Good luck
Tenobas
09 Feb 2015
Re: Telegraph- Questor Oh so we should value haulage companies like dot coms now should we?It is instructive to look at the graph tab for Feb 5th.One week 15 minute ticks: The highest the close could be said to be is 169p and the average is 167p.One month daily ticks: The price is shown as 172p and that looks to be no more than one trade on the day.This is how the market makers build the story and maybe that's how the house broker earns the fee?"Market expectations for full year pretax profits of £27.7 million,"Where do these come from? If you read the Regulatory Information you will find nothing.If you search the broker coverage you will find nothing unless you pay.The 1st half pbt was £12.7 million.Nuff said.
nk1999
07 Feb 2015
Telegraph- Questor "Wincanton on the road to recovery: Small-cap haulier Wincanton has been enjoying a steady turnaround that has seen the shares gain almost 18% during the past six months. That said, the company remains on target to hit market expectations for full year pretax profits of £27.7 million, giving earnings per share of 17.9p, on revenue of £1.1 billion. The haulage and logistics group is well diversified, with 12% of sales coming from construction, 13% from petrol tankers, 15% fast-moving consumer goods, 25% groceries, 25% general merchandise. The balance comes from other haulage. Wincanton’s shares are up 21% since we recommended buying last year (Buy, 138.75p, July 19), and trading on 10 times forecast earnings, they remain good value. Both (WIN and Ocado) companies are logistics operations with revenue of about £1 billion, and both manage large fleets of vehicles to transport goods from A to B. Applying Ocado’s valuation multiple to Wincanton’s forecast earnings would increase the company’s vlaue from about £200 million to £2 billion. Questor thinks one of these valuations is closer to reality and would rather buy the cheaper option at Wincanton, and hold the shares for the long term and wait for the steady profit recovery. Wincanton at 172p-6.9p. Questor Says “Buy”. "
Tenobas
06 Feb 2015
Re: Interim Management Statement All I could find was:"Closed book, its a fixed price contract, the client pays a fixed price for the period the haulier tenders for. If the haulier under estimates the price for the job......... toughThese tend to be the factory to warehouse jobs where the client wants a known amount of vehicles/loads per day. But they can be more complicated scenarios.The recent news story of the NHS 111 contract being dropped by NHS direct because they where not making a profit is a classic example of a closed book contract.Open Book, the client pays for day to day items negotiated outside the contract (i.e.: unexpected costs) & the haulier is paid a fixed price for the basics.Most open book contracts I`ve know are the supermarket RDC`s & such like, where seasonal variations in demand cannot be calculated. where firms such as Stobart & DHL do the haulage"
Tenobas
06 Feb 2015
Re: Interim Management Statement So are you saying that closed book contracts are priced as Miles times (the cost of fuel plus x) plus y.
wuffet
05 Feb 2015
Re: Interim Management Statement HiyaI'm not sure what you mean by 'can they afford the fuel'? It's a bit like saying can a house builder afford the bricks. In open book the client pays the fuel as a pass through from win. In closed book you quote the price with fuel at cost plus margin and you only make an 'extra' gain if between the time of the contract and actual delivery the price falls.s Good luck
Tenobas
05 Feb 2015
Re: Interim Management Statement This might be an issue of credibility. What do they mean by closed book?I guess the closed book contracts might have prices indexed to the price of fuel?Is this likely?What you see as a trend I see as a once off due to fuel (and pension) costs.If they cannot come up with the cash for the cheaper fuel then why not?Today:Changes in the price of fuel have had no material impact on the Group's profitability as contractual arrangements typically pass any fuel price risk through to the end customer. As fuel costs are mainly a flow through cost for Wincanton, the impact of the recent fall in fuel prices is largely limited to a modest decrease in gross costs and corresponding revenues year over year.Final Results 2014:The Contract logistics business reported revenues of £930.1m in the year, a 0.7 per cent increase compared to the £923.2m reported in the year to 31 March 2013. The contractual split of this segment between open and closed book remains relatively constant at 69 per cent (2013: 67 per cent).Interim results:Specialist businessesThe Specialist businesses segment of the Group comprises Container transport activities, Records Management, which provides a full suite of document storage and associated scanning and shredding services, and the vehicle maintenance and repair business Pullman. These Specialist businesses operate almost entirely under a closed book model. The revenue split is given below for information, however these are managed as one segment.(The specialist businesses are not part of contract logistics.)
Bowman
05 Feb 2015
Re: Interim Management Statement The market does not seem to like the IMS. I wonder if this is because there was an expectation of a large profit jump resulting from the drop in fuel costs.Although such a profit jump would have been nice, one has to look on the downside of this, where the profits would slump once the fuel price rises again.The chart still shows an acceptable trend even with today's drop. I will be more than happy if we stay above the 50d EMA
The buzz
05 Feb 2015
Re: Interim Management Statement We have a trading update today that essentially says that trading has been OK with some sectors doing well and new contracts (as previously posted in various RNSs) have been won.. The container business has lower profitability in line with the IMS. Fuel price drop has had not impact on profitability due to the way contracts have been drawn up. So everything seems to be in-line with expectations.The B
