Spieler
06 Nov 2015
Re: Telegraph- Questor Thanks, nk1999.
nk1999
05 Nov 2015
Telegraph- Questor "Wincanton shares still cheap as dividend on the cards: Wincanton, the U.K.’s largest haulier, has agreed the £60 million sale of its records management business. The deal is the latest stage of a multi-year turnaround that leaves the shares well placed for further gains. The records management business, which generated £3.5 million in profits from revenue of £22.4 million last year, will be bought by Restore, the specialist document storage group. The lower debt levels will also reduce interest repayments, making a return to dividend payments more likely this year. Market expectations are for a 5p dividend this year, the first since the payout was cut in 2011. The deal with Restore is another step on the road to recovery after Wincanton reported rising profits and revenues in its most recent annual results. The haulage and logistics business is well diversified, with 12% of sales coming from construction, 13% petrol tankers, 15% fast-moving consumer goods, 25% groceries and 25% general merchandise. The balance comes from other sectors. That said, the shares are still only trading on a price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times, even though the loss of the records management business will knock about 10% off this year’s earnings to give 19p per share. Wincanton at 202¾p +¼p. Questor says “Buy”. "
Spieler
05 Nov 2015
Dividend??? Has anybody an idea if and when dividends are being restored?
wuffet
11 Sep 2015
Re: Holding up well HiOnerous lease contracts are set to fall dramatically this year and this will fall straight through to cash flow so we will finally see some decent cash generation other things being equal. To me wincanton is a plodder and as the economy is doing the same its virtues are maybe more noticeable.The other thing worthy of note is that Eric Born the CE has left and sometimes things happen when you get a new guy in with his own ideas!!Good luck
nk1999
11 Sep 2015
Holding up well Wincanton seems to have held up very well during the recent market turmoil, and even going up a bit. I can see from news that they have been winning contracts with very reputable clients. Most of the publications (IC, Telegraph etc) seem to have positive views on Wincanton.Does that fully explain the share price strength or are they in sight of some predator as a bid candidate?Anyone heard any news/ rumours/ opinions?nk
Tenobas
11 Sep 2015
Question on Finals Pension fund:Interest on the net defined benefit liability assets 34.8 obligations (39.7)I can see how unwinding the discount on the liabilities gives the (39.7) the obligations being measured as negative numbers.How can the account for the liabilities affect the assets? What does the 34.8 mean?Is this some obscure accountancy convention to deal with the fact that the gilts are at a premium to their redemption value; but I would expect that to work the other way.
Tenobas
11 Sep 2015
Re: Pension Fund Assets Reading back I see that the jump in pension assets from 778m to 925m is best attributed more to mark to market of gilts giving an increase of 18% and less to the 6% in the FTSE.This makes little difference however as this half the FTSE is down 12.% and gilts are down by about the same.
Tenobas
11 Sep 2015
Pension Fund Assets I think that Wincanton is highly geared to the FTSE.The pension fund seems to be substantially in equities.This suggests a £50m hit in the interims in early November.Of course there might be and autumn rally.
Tenobas
11 Aug 2015
Re: Eric Born More unusual share selling by the directors I see.
nk1999
22 Jul 2015
Telegraph- Questor "The Questor Column:Questor share tip: Wincanton shares jump on contract win: The company said that it had signed a deal with BAE Systems. Wincanton is on the road to recovery after being hit hard during the financial crisis – it expanded too quickly and became laden with debt. Its debt levels have fallen sharply over the past six years. Underlying pretax profits jumped 23% to £31.4 million last year, from £25.6 million in 2013. However, the Pullman vehicle repair business is still struggling and the pension deficit increased to £144 million at the end of March. The whole company is worth £234 million. That said, the shares are still good value, trading on nine times forecast earnings. The acting Chief Executive, Adrian Colman, is due to take the role permanently from the start of next month and we remain positive. Wincanton at 192p+7¾p Questor says Buy."
Tenobas
26 Jun 2015
Re: Eric Born On 5th June he sold 429,074 shares.Perhaps he was drunk again and clicked on the wrong button.
Tenobas
06 Jun 2015
Re: Telegraph Questor - Buy In the interests of fair play I will comment on this article.They say "Market consensus is for pre-tax profits to rise to about £31m, giving 18p in earnings per share. This leaves the shares trading on nine times earnings, falling to eight times next year."The results under Net Debt and Cash Flows show free cash flow as 2014: 42.72015: 7.3Adding back in the movements in working capital which are not relevant: 18.9, (8.0) this becomes:2014: 23.82015: 15.3Deducting the increase in capex 1.7, 9.7 (=8)2014: 23.82015: 23.3In other words if we assumed that this business could operate using capex of 1.7m then extrapolating the free cash flow would be 22.8m and even under these most optimistic assumptions the P/E would be 9.17 not 8.Being very optimistic this is assuming capex of 1.7 and not taking the depreciation of 7.9.If we used a capex figure of 9.7 for 2016 the the free cash flow would be 22.8 - 8 = 14.8 giving a P/E of 14.1.Even this figure flatters the situation because the underlying reality is that WIN is made up of two parts:1) The trading entity elegantly shrinking by 4% p.a.2) The pension fund net liability of £144m growing by about 15% p.a. because it is the difference of two big numbers and because most of the assets are locked in to gilts as required by the state.These results very laudibly demonstrated that it is steady ahead as she goes and it is very clear that this course will not generate dividends for shareholders.The Telegraph is supporting the establishment not small shareholders.
The buzz
05 Jun 2015
Telegraph Questor - Buy The Questor still likes Wincanton:-[link] B
Tenobas
04 Jun 2015
Re: Final Results I agree with this summary with some qualifications.I see no improvement in trading but rather that the improved earnings are exclusively down to reduced financing costs but there has been no meaningful reduction in debt.I see it as very positive that more information is revealed about the pension fund. I had been trying to work backwards from the discount rate sensitivity to the size of the liabilities and I thought that they were approaching £2bn!It is very useful to know that the assets are fully marked to market but I cannot share your enthusiasm about the improvement in the assets:The growth assets increased by only £13m and the gilts and index linked assets increased by £107m.If the latter are matched in maturity to the liabilities then they are not available for sale and the increase in value is entirely notional.I agree with your point about the discount rate but I now believe that increasing interest/loan/bond rates would not be a net positive because if the discount rate was taken higher it would push up the annual unwinding and if interest rates rose then that would push up financing costs for the business significantly.This has been very interesting but I would still not invest in WIN.As to the fuel costs - I give up.
The buzz
04 Jun 2015
Final Results I have been watching the progressive recovery of WIN over many years now. These results are another set of good work in progress to repair the balance sheet. In a nut shell I perceive that trading is steadily improving and the trading debts keep reducing.The main event for me was the pension deficit that has gone up due to the use of a significantly lower discount rate (3.25% as opposed to 4.5%): 0.1% reduction adds about £20m to the deficit. So unless I have done my sums wrong, the deficit appears to have had a £250m increase due to the use of the lower discount rate. However, the actual increase in the deficit was 'only' £33m (from £111m to £144m). My simple mind notes that the value of scheme assets has increased by £146.5m reflecting some good returns - these are increases in real assets as opposed to a theoretical loss due to the use of a different discount rate - so assuming that the gains are retained, then an increase in the assumed discount rate will put the pension scheme in a substantial profit position. .. but I have been waiting a long time for the discount rate to increase....Whether this accountancy deficit will reduce with the higher bond yields observed by the previous post is another question and will not really manifest until the next pension calculations are made. One can simply observe what discount rates are used in future in other companies' final reports and predict how WIN's deficit will change. However, the flavour does seem to be that interest rates are on the way up and this suggests that the next value of discount rate used in the pension calculations will be higher.The B
