Hugh Betcher
22 May 2018
Re: Results I beg to differ. I usually buy trackers/ETFs and have said so but occasionally buy shares in company (like Halma) which I think is quality and has strong management and which I expect will continue to do well over the long term. I don't think I have ever claimed to spot a share which is divorced from its economic performance or one which I can see is substantially undervalued but which the market (I.e. no one else) has not spotted because both propositions are quite obviously (a) nonsense and (b) hubris.And as I have said, the guy claiming to do this magic trick is the same guy who is down 50% from just one of his relatively recent 'strong buy' recommendations for WGB, so what evidence is there he's got any stock picking skills whatsoever.Get rich slow - follow the market, diversify, buy quality companies if you must buy individual shares at all. This isn't one of them.
Boring Bernie
22 May 2018
Re: Results HughRe "I'd characterise it rather differently. On the one side we have someone who believes the share price and economic fundamentals are (or can be) independent of one another and that a share price might not reflect a company's future prospects. It follows that this person thinks he can determine when such situations exist and buy shares which are 'cheap' and likely to move up substantially, providing exceptional profits."Well, you've just made a compelling argument for either :-1. Long-term buy and hold of good companies and / or2. Just buying index-trackersBoth of which are decent enough strategies, but, a quick look at your posting history suggests that you think you are able to spot opportunities and beat the market, which is really all that winningstreak and Biscuit Barrell are trying to do.It seems to me that you don't practice what you preach and are pretty much cut from the same cloth !As to whether or not now is a good time to buy shares in Walker Greenbank, then no-one really knows, but if there weren't opposing views, then the market wouldn't work very well.
Hugh Betcher
22 May 2018
Re: Results I'd characterise it rather differently. On the one side we have someone who believes the share price and economic fundamentals are (or can be) independent of one another and that a share price might not reflect a company's future prospects. It follows that this person thinks he can determine when such situations exist and buy shares which are 'cheap' and likely to move up substantially, providing exceptional profits.And I think that's largely nonsense. For at least two reasons
1) the share price is an aggregation of thousands of trades made by hundreds if not thousands of investors seeking to maximise profits, many managing £ millions or billions of equities. All the evidence suggests the share price discounts available information.(2) the notion that some punter (him or me, I'm not being personal) can look at a share price and divine that it is cheap and offers exceptional profits but the rest of the market cannot is pretty obviously nonsense. And as I have said in this particular case the person in question thought they looked cheap and were a 'strong buy' at twice today's price, so the observable evidence is that his ability to see this fantastic buying opportunity and when WGB shares are 'cheap' is non-existent. In fact it's worse than that: the evidence suggests his analytic ability is worse than a random throw of the dice.It doesn't particularly matter if I think this company is good or bad (although the fact the board can't write English does not inspire confidence) its just that if people think they can look at the accounts and discard the evidence embedded in the share price then they are deluded and in time will loose money, maybe all of it.
Boring Bernie
21 May 2018
Re: Results Well, I suppose this thread shows pretty much how the market works.On one side, we have a negative viewpoint, from someone who doesn't like the company's prospects, or the sp being at half of what it was not that long ago, and, on the other side, we have someone who sees the positives going forward, and sees the current sp as an opportunityBoth views are valid, and the market generally sets a sp according to which view is most prevalentat at the time.fwiw - I think there's a recovery possibility here, so I bought a few today ( at 115p ), so I plainly fall into the "possible recovery play" team, but that recovery might not happen in the timescale I'm hoping for ( 12 to 18 months ) so I could have just made a poor investment decision.Time will tell and all that ...
Hugh Betcher
19 May 2018
Re: Results For example, Biscuit, just over 6 months ago you thought this share a "strong buy". Anyone believing you are able to spot a bargain when you see one would have paid almost exactly double today's price and lost half of their investment.So you'll forgive me if I don't buy this 'spotting hidden gems amongst the small cap sector' story. The market is a much better indicator and measure of value than you or I.
Hugh Betcher
19 May 2018
Re: Results Ah the 'small stocks are different' argument. But one presumes that if some punter on Interactive Investor can spot that a share like WGB is clearly undervalued and buys them, so too can anyone and everyone else, in which case it can't be undervalued anymore.Added to which some of those claiming this share is undervalued are the same folk who thought it was cheap when the shares were well north of 115p, so their analytic powers don't seem very impressive, do they?
Biscuit Barrell
18 May 2018
Re: Results All that theory might apply to highly analysed and traded stocks but is mostly irrelevant for small caps.
winningstreak
17 May 2018
Re: Results Belcher - Wealthy enough, if you are referring to me.But like Buffett, not entirely without mistakes.ws
Hugh Betcher
17 May 2018
Re: Results Look like we'll have to agree to disagree. The share price in a developed liquid market discounts all the available information, which includes past performance and future expectations. It's certainly a better indicator of intrinsic value than one punter (that's you or me, not being personal here) with a calculator and a strong opinion.If it's so obvious to you when a share price is disconnected from reality then you should be as wealthy as Buffett, which I assume is not the case.
winningstreak
09 May 2018
Re: Results Many a share bought in a deep dip has outperformed the market. Charts often do not correctly reflect the company's performance, they often reflect sentiment more than performance.WGB's profit this year is expected to be much the same aslast year (see management's statement at H1 Results)and that is despite the lower sales in H1. The growing income from franchising makes up for the temporaryreduction in sales. Jolly cheap shares at currently 108p, IMO.ws
Hugh Betcher
08 May 2018
Re: Results "This is a chart of share price not of company performance. " Yup and for investors that's what counts not waffle.
Hugh Betcher
04 May 2018
Re: Results A slightly silly response if I may say so on at least three levels1) the share price doesn't lie - it's the fundamental arbiter of a company's performance(2) the share price anticipates future performance and cash flow generation, so if historical performance has been strong but the share price tanks, there's a reason for that(3) we're investors. This is an investment bulletin board. At the end of the day it's irrelevant if (very hypothetically) a company performs like a stallion if the shares perform like a dog - from an investors' perspective its the share price that matters not a set of accounting numbers (which may be misleading or even fraudulent in any case)As an aside, the company has not performed strongly on fundamentals in any case - EPS is lower than it was four years ago and interim earnings down 18%, against a buoyant economic backdrop. Not exactly shooting the lights out. More poodle than Grand National winner.
winningstreak
02 May 2018
Re: Results From overvalued to undervalued, a short journey. Now perhaps good time to buy.IMHO,ws
Biscuit Barrell
02 May 2018
Re: Results This is a chart of share price not of company performance. Obviously related but nevertheless completely different issues. Over a 10 year track this has been a very well managed business with steadily improving performance across all performance measures. In the past couple of years the business has hit operational issues and market challenges. Clearly the brand management was not what it should have been.The only relevant question is where does this go now? Will management turn this around? What will happen to markets for their premium products? Generally I have some confidence in management over the medium term to turn this around operationally as brands are strong and manufacturing facilities are well invested following the insurance claims. But I have concerns that the market will be slow to give management credit given the recent disappointments.
Hugh Betcher
01 May 2018
Re: Results Maybe his little picture will help you. Shares down over 50% in the last 6 months. If you think that's a healthy company, I'd hate to see the rest of your portfolio.
