Greyinvestor
03 Aug 2018
First purchase Made a reasonably sized first purchase of these today @ 77p. In my view they are simply underpriced…
kryptes
01 Aug 2018
Results No I didn’t have any ‘inside’ knowledge, I was just making a sideways comment about how poor the performance has proved to be since you and the other poster began arguing over whether it’s a dog or an undervalued star. I think it’s fair to say you won that debate, at least for now.
The_buzz
29 Jul 2018
Results No I did not expect this profit warning RNS, especially so soon after the AGM statement, albeit I had posted to say that the market conditions looked adverse. My old favourite CFX has since reported its final results - they are essentially in the same markets as WGB minus production. They have just posted a solid set of results, although they do say that trading is challenging in Europe. Of significance they were saying that the USA market was not too bad. I am expecting WGB to have bottomed for now as the last RNS had to throw in everything including the kitchen sink otherwise they might have to have another embarrassing RNS. The Buzz
Hugh_Betcha
25 Jul 2018
Results timely question!
The_buzz
25 Jul 2018
Results Just for the record, bought 5k at 70p and 3.317k at 72.94p this morning. I the posted a diatribe on the LSE web page. At least there I can put in a post quite easily and without being locked out of my message half way through!! Basically I think that 70p is a solid floor and I am sort of just breaking even already. I anticipate a slow recovery and that the directors have really had to throw the bad news together once they realised that they had to issue an RNS with a poor trading update so soon after the AGM statement. At least no stamp duty!! The Buzz
TX2
24 Jul 2018
Results Now 80-85p in the last four minutes of trading as WGB announced a poor trading update at 4.26 PM;I assume this odd timing was chosen because they wrongly thought that it was “nobody is watching o’clock!†Or perhaps worse still the management has just found out that “things†are much worse than they thought and had no option but to update at once. WGB has excellent brands;the licence income is a bonus but I agree very difficult to value…could be an even bigger “bargain†in the next year or so.
The_buzz
24 Jul 2018
Results Judging by the share price fall today, it sounds like it is struggling. Now 101-103p. Lots of potential adverse aspects - in particular the poor housing market, especially in the lucrative London area. Low £ should help US sales, but the wild gyrations of Trump and his import taxes does put at risk this sales avenue. The price is around my buy price but I am reluctant to commit with so much High Street blues, in particular from J Lewis. The Burbury share price has been associated with WGB as it deals with premium products - they have had a bad trading period so in my eyes is a small negative. WGB really operates in a cyclical market, and my perception is that we are in a downward cycle, so there may be poor trading news for perhaps a couple of years - so I am rather wary at the moment. The Buzz
kryptes
24 Jul 2018
Results How’s WG doing then?
Hugh Betcher
23 May 2018
Re: Results Well, BB here's another difference between us. Yesterday I fairly summarised your point of view (market's aren't efficient especially in small caps, possible to spot profit opportunities etc) and then explained why I disagreed. In contrast you make childish, personal and insulting comments perhaps not realising that to a neutral reader this not makes you look like a small person, with ego issues and a thin skin but also undermines the power of your case - if it's so strong, which misrepresent what the other guy says and why try to insult them?I have never said markets are perfectly efficient. What I have said is the market - aggregating lots of different views and thousands of trades -is more likely to reflect the intrinsic value of a share than the opinion of some mug punter (you or me) on this board. Can you understand that point? It isn't complicated.Given your strong recommendation at double today's price and having told us all you bought at 185p one might have thought you would display some modesty and admit you can be wrong, as you quite clearly have been on this discussion board. But modesty and admitting possible error doesn't appear to be your style.
The buzz
23 May 2018
Re: Results Hugh,Much of what you say is consistent with some of my earlier posts. I currently do not hold any WGB shares but it is a share that I originally inherited from my grandfather so I have been following it for many many years, and according to my records my peak holding was 73,317 shares on 6.10.2010 and the wife some 90,535 shares - if only I had waited for the £2 a share price!!. I used to do some very thorough research including a previously arranged visit to the WGB shop in New York (whilst on holiday!) to understand their different market model there!Now there were some special reasons why I bought so many shares at that time. I bought as low as 7.24p on 2.4.2009 - but multiple top-ups to around 20p and then started to progressively sell above 50p a share to lock in the profit, rebalence the portfolio and because the risk reward balance was no longer so attractive. Why was the price so low and why did I buy so many shares? The answer is partly because I perceived green shoots of a turn round with the very fortuitous purchase of Sanderson at a knock down price, partly that the price was getting 'silly' (John Sach told me later that the institutions also held that view and also topped up), the reward looked enormous compared to the potential loss, most institutions would have been forbidden to buy the share with such a low market value, and most importantly another investor was buying in concert with me at the same time using level 2 data to buy the available share offerings - our very modest purchases revealed a chronic shortage of shares and we kept on buying up to 13p a share over the next week. Come Sept 2009 the results were looking very encouraging so I had another buying spree.Coming back to your point about the market price - agreed that this may apply to heavily traded shares, but minnows can be ignored and stay moribund and drift down until something of real note crops up. I had a similar experience with my 10 gonger with Western Canadian Coal.Why did I sell out? Mainly to lock in profits and because so much assumed profit growth seemed to have been written into the share price. That said WGB seemed to keep throwing the dice and kept on rolling a six. The recent trace back to my mind was a reality check with some faltering sales. I did briefly dip my toe in again in December 2017 but decided to settle on a quick £300 profit in 5 days.My current view is that WKB is approaching my buying range, but I hold a concern that the housing market and in particular in London high value properties, is stagnating - and so WGB could be entering a down side of this cyclical industry. The significant fall in the value of the £ should help export sales, however much material is sourced abroad, such as from Italy, so it is not a straight forward equation. What really excites me is the significant progressive increase in the licensing income.I had better end my waffle to say that I used to work in the aerospace industry and now do post graduate research in astrophysics - but have always had an interest in shares.The B
Biscuit Barrell
23 May 2018
Re: Results Market maker - wow, impressive. And you think the market is perfect. Gosh!
Hugh Betcher
23 May 2018
Re: Results the way when you say "Director Buys are about the only indicator which consistently outperforms the market" do you have evidence to support that claim? Many studies have found no such relationship and if it exists we'd simply create a fund which buys shares every time a director does (and presumably sell or short when directors sell) and it would be the best performing fund ever. I wonder why that's not the case.In the case of WGB if it's such an obvious bargain why aren't the directors buying? I could be wrong but I did a quick scan back three years and I can't see ANY directors buying shares (excluding exercise of share options).Just for amusement when I did a Goole search 'director dealings' +'outperform' the very first article which comes up (from Mail Online) starts "The HBOS board waded into the market to buy stock - a move that steadied the nerves of investors and prompted frenzied trading, sending the shares soaring 17% at one point on Monday". That went well, didn't it? A few months later and it was bust.Read more: [link]
Hugh Betcher
23 May 2018
Re: Results Oh dear, sounds like I have touched a raw nerve. A pity if you're offended by views which don't coincide with your own but it's a discussion board so if you don't like it, go elsewhere. When you say "I also wonder why you post on a board when you are so negative about a stock." are you suggesting a discussion board should only be host to those with a positive view of a share? Not much of a discussion really - 'I like this share', and 'I LOVE this share'. Personally when I own a share I'm much more interested in reading the views of those who don't or who think it is overpriced than the cheerleader crowd yelling 'go on my little beaut'. But maybe your ego is so fragile you need to see people agreeing with you. That's an echo chamber BTW.I'd place a large bet I've a better understanding of financial markets then thou. Ever been a market maker? Or managed a pension fund? No, didn't think so.And yes I do tend to ignore buy and sell recommendations. Do you take them seriously? My point was - and is - that the current share price is a better indicator of value than some mug punter who thinks he's smarter than everyone else. I'd say that of anyone. But in your case as you thought they were a bargain at double today's value and bought shares 65% above today's price it's even more the case.And yes, that's looking back but because I have not yet completed the construction of my flux capacitor time travel machine, I can only judge you by what you have said in the past (an endless stream of bullish sentiment, while the share price headed south) and not what you do in the future. But somehow I don't think we'll be hailing you as the new Sage of BrownTown any day soon.
Biscuit Barrell
23 May 2018
Re: Results Hugh - thanks so much for your patronising advice. It is almost as if you have read a book on how the stock market works - your insight is incredible. I was particularly fascinated by the thousands of trades that determine that a stock is fairly priced at any point in time. So insightful on the workings of AIM stocks - I hadnt realised they traded so frequently. I wonder if you look at every buy or sell recommendation and think that the market knows best so this opinion is pointless. I always also enjoy how perceptive you are after the event and your ability to plot a chart of share performance in the past - as if it were an indicator of share price in the future. I also wonder why you post on a board when you are so negative about a stock.In reality, these small AIM stock are covered by 1 or 2 analysts only who themselves are covering dozens of companies in superficial detail. they may have met management in person once or twice. They may have visited a factory. They are unlikely to understand what they are looking at. So forgive me if I think the market is imperfect.For what it is worth, I invested in this stock over 10 years ago following directors buys - I am not sure if you got to that chapter yet HB but Director Buys are about the only indicator which consistently outperforms the market. I am up around 100% on my investment. But clearly I could be up much more if I had sold at a peak (derr why didnt I think of that. I wonder if there is any book that tells investors whether it is good to sell at the peak?). As I have followed the business over at least 10 years I have seen steady progress and good management. In fact I have worked with some of the senior management team here in the past and I think the individual concerned is capable . Decisions have largely been good. The business has been hit by events - insurance claims - rebuilding factories - largely they have handled these issues well. The insurance claim recovered losses and replaced old equipment with new in timely fashion - I call that good management.The management clearly performed less well on their brands in the past couple of years, but they appear to have a plan - they have replaced senior management - I think this is a reasonable response.So what is my investment thesis - simple - it is good management with a track record will work their way through the current problems and put the business back on a steady footing. Of course there are other approaches to investment - no doubt they all have their merits. But Hugh - perhaps you need to try to read another chapter in your book about how markets really work.
Hugh Betcher
22 May 2018
Re: Results I also note that Mr Biscuit Barrel also boasted of having "topped up" at 185p. Please save us from such sages.
