LK Hyman
06 Mar 2015
Re: I'm back in, balls deep! Harold,"With all of Weir´s debt & the horrendous REAL world, do you think a bid is likely?"No idea, m8, but Weir is not particularly heavily leveraged, and there are a host of bids going on in Pharma, so why not in this bit of the oil 'n gas 'n mining biznay?Anyhoo, I didn't buy cos I was expecting a bid; I bought it because I thought it was oversold and because it is an attractive, well run company.I don't give a monkeys what financial shape the people who may wish to take over Weir are in ... so long as they pay me in cash:[link] LKH on the flybridge that's what I want
Hardcore Uproar
06 Mar 2015
Re: I'm back in, balls deep! 99% of rumours are just rumours. Sell on rumour buy on fact. This is how market makers thrive on liquidity they need to create a market. With all of Weir´s debt & the horrendous REAL world, do you think a bid is likely? Hmmmmm. Probably the people likely to take Weir over are not in great financial shape themselves!
Rhigos
06 Mar 2015
Re: I'm back in, balls deep! Lupo,I have half a mind to sell WEIR on rumour. I too feel that it may well come to naught in which case SP will fall back and probably more than 5%. On the other hand would kick self if a bid becomes real. I think I will hang on.
Lupo di mare
06 Mar 2015
Re: I'm back in, balls deep! Could be right, but could be being put about to allow some traders to get out before pushing it down further. Seeing as I'm largely out of Weir now, I'd prefer the latter scenario.Today, if it weren't for those rumours, I'd have expected Weir to be trading lower along with miners suffering from China moving towards "more normal" rates of growth - less than has been the case over recent years.Regarding miners, RIO and BLT look good bets as they bought their Iron Ore assets and infrastructure long ago when prices were much much lower. Add to that the drying-up of some 100mt/a of expensive Indian Iron Ore production and things don't look too bad for the biggies.Lupo, who's carried umpteen thousands of tonnes of the filthy stuff around the world - but that don't make me an expert....
Rhigos
06 Mar 2015
Re: I'm back in, balls deep! LKH, First of all congratulations for getting back into Weir BEFORE latest bid rumours:[link] you do not like Aviva as SP up 7.05% yesterday following better than expected results. As you do not like AV. how about DLG they have performed even better than AV. since sell off from RBS. SP +95% since float in Oct 2012. Rolling yield 5.56% + specials.VED is by biggest capital loser by far but it is definately not a basket case. I think it unlikely I will even break in the next 2 years but I am certain SP will be at least 60% more than it is now. Seeing Anil Agarwal and family buying up VED shares gives me confidence. It also means they can pursue long term objectives without worrying about other shareholder's short term concerns.LGEN looks good, rolling yield of 4.15% and SP up 70% in the last 2 years, compared with sector's 50%. I may buy on a dip.I regret not selling mor RIO and BLT in Mar & Dec 2012 when RIO SP was 2370 and 3550 respectively though the sells I did do on those two dates halved number of my RIO shares In 2012 I halved number of BLT shares I held as well. I might add making a very significant profit. I am still however overweight in mining.
LK Hyman
01 Mar 2015
Re: I'm back in, balls deep! Rhigos,I'm hoping that Weir will be my equivalent of your Petrofac, though Weir has not fallen as much as your requisite 50% to 80%. It's down summat like 35% since I sold it before Popeye the Failure Man received his Glesga kiss from my fellow Scots.Of your straight income shares I hold RDSB, GSK, BLT and RIO (hmmm there's a pattern there!) but my wad, such as it is, is underweight all of those bad boys relative to the FTSE AllShare, which is my benchmark.Personally I don't like VED (Albanese screwed me over royally when he was at RIO and the Indian feller Uggermugger doesn't inspire much confidence either) and I don't like AV, especially after their disgraceful behaviour when them fund manager fellers played pass the parcel with shares they bought for different funds. I have LGEN instead in that sector, which has done very nicely for me in recent years.LKH on the flybridge
picstloup
27 Feb 2015
Re: I'm back in, ankle deep Having flogged off half my holding last summer, I've bought them back (and one or two more) today at £17.11. Tis a volatile stock, and the divi ain't great, but it's better at this level than it was at £25, and I wish I'd sold off my Amec at the same time. It's now <2% of my total, so more like ankle than balls deep. I'm also sticking with BG, which I may come to regret (more than I currently do).
Rhigos
26 Feb 2015
Re: I'm back in, balls deep! LKH,When I first bought Weir in Jul 2012 things were a lot different in the oils sector than now. I think conditions are going to improve in the future but not be as buoyant again for for a long time. Therefore my logic is to wait until the market has got over bad results from Weir and things improve. Take a modest profit and move onto more profitable shares. My biggest successes recently have been recovery plays. Finding shares whose SP has fallen between 50% and 80% in the last 12 months but are profitable with good ROCE. Out of short list of about ten I pick out 1 or 2 that look most promising. My latest was Pertrofac (PFC) bought on 11 Feb and now up 18% with a yield of 4.55% at yesterdays close. An earlier one was Xaar (XAR) bought on 15 Dec 2014, 2/3 sold on 19 Dec and the rest on 6 Feb for an overall profit of 32.75%. These are so far the only 2 recoveries plays I have done using these principles so luck may come in.For straight income shares I have:GVC (7.7% + special), BKG (7.0%), UKW (5.9% +special), RDSB (5.3%), GSK (5.2%), KIE (4.2%), AV. (2.76% because SP gone up so much) and DLG (3.8% SP up a lot).As a result of collapse of SP my mining shares are high yielding VED (6.35%), BLT (4.47%), RIO (4.25%). I sincerely hope these miners yields will fall as a result of their rising SP.
LK Hyman
26 Feb 2015
Re: I'm back in, balls deep! Rhigos,"I want a share with a higher yield to boost my income as not held in an ISA."Centrica perhaps? Or National Grid or SSE? I hold all of them bad boys and they have a high yield, though what really matters is total shareholder return (share price movement plus divis) rather than just yield."I would like to sell if I can make perhaps 20%."Surely what matters is what you believe will actually happen to the share price, good or bad? Not sure that a strategy based on some nominal relationship between your preferred get-out price and your cost is a good one mesen.LKH on the flybridge
Rhigos
26 Feb 2015
Re: I'm back in, balls deep! LKH,You deserve my vote for your bravery in buying after such terrible results. You also made some good points. I think it probably was oversold. Up 1% today which is a start on road to recovery. This road is I fear long and winding and am resigned to holding for many months. I would like to sell if I can make perhaps 20%. I want a share with a higher yield to boost my income as not held in an ISA.
LK Hyman
25 Feb 2015
Re: I'm back in, balls deep! Lupo,"There's some really hard-hearted buyers out there"Fair point, m8. But, if your entire mine depends on one of Weir's huge pumping gizmos, are you really gonnae say "No, I don't want your expensive spare part, Mr Cochrane, I can get one that's chust as good from ScrewFix".I think not.[link] on the flybridge now they never re-opened that worthless pit .....
Lupo di mare
25 Feb 2015
Re: I'm back in, balls deep! Reasonable thinking, I'd say, LK - IMVH.Will aftermarket be under pressure, too? On margins, that is. There's some really hard-hearted buyers out there. It was such a down-beat report, especially with talk of "the market is expected to take longer to reach a balance than during the demand driven downturns in 2008-9 and 2012-13". We can see what the sp was like at that stage, without the assistance of LG's skills.Whatever happens, on a 2-year view the sp should be ahead of where it is now.
bushwhacker
25 Feb 2015
Re: Re: Lupo, the figure was off the top of my head when writing the message, my point being though given todays news of very little profit change we are at a low ratio. Look at Petrofac they have seen a 10 % fall in profits, yet their share has risen 8 % last time of looking, (although their PER is ~ 8) still the mind boggles.My point is it all seems a bit reactionary, and given time natural resource prices will return to higher levels and we will be wondering what all the fuss was
Rhigos
25 Feb 2015
Re: Dividend Hike LKH,I remember you posting that you had sold WEIR, wish I'd followed suite 
You wrote "There is no doubt that their customers will be squeezing 'em mercilessly on costs."You are right according to following article.[link] above:Analysts said the company's outlook was more cautious than expected."Customers are asking for double-digit price cuts, which management note they will have to participate in to some degree," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.The brokerage assumes a 10 percent cut in prices.Ah well at least my GSK shares are up over 60% today as they've put themselves up for sale. Hope someone wants to buy them!
Lupo di mare
25 Feb 2015
Re: Bushwhacker - with eps at about 141p, and an sp of 1700 - say, it looks to me like a P/E of 12'ish, not 10. But that's of no consequence when looking ahead at reduced revenues and margins.
