Vodafone Group Live Discussion

jackdawsson 31 Jul 2019

Buy 198.32 (shares) jackdawsson: Share buy at 175.85. Bought back a second tranche. Taken my hit on my shares. Long expected, long delayed. But I felt the time was just right for me to exit VOD altogether after a good rise. Mindful that no-one exit the tops. Sold this tranche & one from way back in thread title at 198.32 for 151. Not including dividends, a loss of just over 20%. Significant loss for me with shares. Less so with dividends. Bought LLOY at 52.55 with proceeds. I figure a very L/T target there of 73 to 74+, ie. a 40% profit is more doable than holding on with this for similar percentage profit. LLOY also increasing its yield & will pay quarterly divis from 2020. Time will tell if justified, but I feel this call was right for me. - GLA.

ValueSeeker8 31 Jul 2019

Vodafone group completes sale of vodafone new zealand RNS - COMPLETION OF SALE OF VODAFONE NEW ZEALAND Proceeds from the sale (€2.1 bn) will be used to reduce Vodafone’s net debt. Best Regards @ValueSeeker8

ValueSeeker8 30 Jul 2019

Vodafone set for EU go-ahead on Liberty Global deal PrefInvestor1: Seems to have levelled off today though ? Hi @PrefInvestor1, There could be many reasons for that, the NASDAQ (where VOD ADRs are traded) taking a dip, people who bought below 130 taking profit, the SP itself consolidating before moving up again? etc… tbh I was quite surprised (happily this time ) to see it making another big bounce yesterday from 146 p to touch the 154 p level!. It is now trading most of the time in a narrow margin between 151 and 152. Tomorrow the Liberty transaction should be completed, will there be a market reaction to that? I noticed the reaction was muted when approval by the EU was given. So, is it a case of getting the driving licence is one thing but buying the car and actually driving it is another? I shall have to wait and see. Best Regards @ValueSeeker8

PrefInvestor1 30 Jul 2019

Vodafone set for EU go-ahead on Liberty Global deal Hi Again @ValueSeeker8, Well a really mega move up in the last few days on the back of the TowerCo idea by the sound of it. Seems to have levelled off today though ? but as you say with dividend payment day on Friday there may yet be another spike. Suspect at least a few people who got in at sub 130 might start taking profits though ?, but no sign of this as yet. Anyone with a big holding in both VOD and AZN will have really done well in the last week !!. Personally I have neither apart from holdings within ETFs. ATB Pref

ValueSeeker8 28 Jul 2019

Vodafone set for EU go-ahead on Liberty Global deal jackdawsson: someone has muted the Munger interview. There is a problem with ii. To listen to the interview watch in on YouTube.

jackdawsson 28 Jul 2019

Vodafone set for EU go-ahead on Liberty Global deal Hi @ValueSeeker8 Thanks. This is another issue it’s best to agree to disagree on some aspects. I’ve made what I think is a fairly balanced, objective overview for most traders in my preceding comment, be they long or short. It has no bearing on my trading errors or successes. Though I agree that powerful professional shorters with hundreds of billions at their disposal can add further damage to already ailing stocks, they still have to employ fairly strict criteria to even entertain opening large short positions. This can also present useful information to everyone else involved in markets, for eg. as regards which stocks to treat with added caution. For eg. DEB that you mention was already a huge mess seeing record losses & stuck in a downtrend for ages for a number of reasons. Not least the irreversible changes & trends on our High Streets. But shorters can do no significant damage at all to stocks that are well run, generating growth & steady profits, whilst keeping debt low. In other words, a quality stock will still do well regardless of any shorters, who can also lose serious money when they get it wrong. ValueSeeker8: Particularly interesting section to me is between 300 and 350 when he talks about computer trading algorithms, hedge funds and whether that much liquidity is needed. At 33:15 he asks the question: What good is it doing to civilisation they have a group of people “clipping money” through computer algorithms that work a lot like legalised frontrunning of orders? What good is that making anybody except for the people that are making the money? Also at 34:15 when he reveals that such things are being allowed because political parties get donations from such activities . Thanks for the quote because someone has muted the Munger interview. I’ve turned up my volume to top level, yet nothing is audible. It could be an issue specific to the Chrome OS on a Mac, but all other YT videos I’ve checked sound fine. One could say, what good does it do to civilisation to even have stock markets? What good is gambling in general, which is increasingly rife & causing financial damage at record levels in nations like UK? I don’t morally support any of it. But if I can make money via going long or short (I do both on indices), I’ll take advantage of the rotten world as it is, as does the next man or woman with sufficient knowledge to do so. - Best of luck!

ValueSeeker8 28 Jul 2019

Vodafone set for EU go-ahead on Liberty Global deal Hi @jackdawsson, Shorts are like the Hyenas of the investment world, they live on the misery of others - those who want to earn their money by investing it in a legitimate business by getting their fair share from the returns of said business, while shorts wish for the destruction and demise of the company/business they go short on. To add insult to injury they actually ‘borrow’ the shares and sell them in bulk to intentionally push the SP price down and then its rinse and repeat. The funds who lend them the shares in return for interest interest are equally malign and dishonest, do these funds pass such financial benefit to their clients? Are they acting in the best interest of their clients? Please note I am not taking about the average Joe here, but specialised shorting hedge funds and companies, such as Malcolm Wace for example and Shylocks like that who want the pound of flesh. Look to what they did to DEB or GKP for example. With regards to the average person going short, by means of SB or CFD, the stats clearly show that 80% of them actually lose, so I have no qualm with them; in fact if anything, I sometimes sympathise with them or just ignore them. But those hedge funds use sophisticated technology and have teams of specialised looking for any signs of vulnerability in any business, and whence they find one they set on it like packs of wolves or wild dogs. They also bribe politicians in order to prevent having a legislation against such activities and they continue to ply their malign trade. Below is an interview with Billionaire Charlie Munger which I think is quite interesting: Particularly interesting section to me is between 300 and 350 when he talks about computer trading algorithms, hedge funds and whether that much liquidity is needed. At 33:15 he asks the question: What good is it doing to civilisation they have a group of people “clipping money” through computer algorithms that work a lot like legalised frontrunning of orders? What good is that making anybody except for the people that are making the money? Also at 34:15 when he reveals that such things are being allowed because political parties get donations from such activities. I do not really want to get myself involved in politics but I do think that Charlie Munger hit the nail right on its head there. Best Regards @ValueSeeker8

jackdawsson 28 Jul 2019

Vodafone set for EU go-ahead on Liberty Global deal ValueSeeker8: Thanks to all those 4.x% (~£1.4 Bn?) shorters, as they should add value to the SP as their losses mount! Hope that they are being severely burnt! Hi @ValueSeeker8, With respect, why the hate toward shorters? Many traders who go short also go long. Most won’t trade substantially enough to move the SP of any FTSE stock. The ones that can move SPs are very large funds. Many such funds occasionally hold longs & shorts in the same stocks, at the same time. Logic? Rather than completely sell out a large long position at huge loss on bad news, they hold their longs by hedging via shorts. This adds an overall balance to markets & stops some SPs from seeing even lower lows during bad times. If I buy a stock that falls badly, the error is mine alone. Nothing to do with shorters. - Regards. PrefInvestor1: Hi @valueseeeker8 + @jackdawson, Congrats on todays big move up, trading update didnt look anything special but no red flag I guess and Liberty deal finally coming through ?. Hi @PrefInvestor1, Thanks. Friday’s volume at over 205m was well above VOD’s daily average. This suggests that some larger investors are sufficiently impressed by VOD’s debt-reducing plans, whatever the longer-term consequences of the planned sale of tower masts. So possibly more rises ahead. OTOH, of note on a technical level, whilst I can’t identify any price gaps above, Friday’s open at 138.80 left a gap below from previous day’s close of 132. As you’ll all know, though some gaps never get filled, or not for ages, many will be filled over variable timeframes. Whilst I’ve no intention of selling the rest of what I hold during a period of ongoing recovery, nevertheless there are grounds for caution. Especially after any strong rise as seen here & with that gap below at 132. - Regards.

frog_in_a_tree 27 Jul 2019

Trading update for the quarter ended 30 June 2019 Additionally, those of us who retained our VZC allocation have done well in terms of capital appreciation and dividend income. Incidentally, the VOD jump yesterday propelled my portfolio to its highest ever cash value. All good! Frog in a tree

devonplay 27 Jul 2019

Trading update for the quarter ended 30 June 2019 Shares Magazines has an interesting article: “Matching Cellnex’s rating based on its €900m EBITDA would slap a rough €17bn EV on TowerCo, versus Vodafone’s rough €60bn EV.” [link] That’s a big chunk of the debt pile gone if they EVER managed to get an IPO away at 17bn DL

ValueSeeker8 27 Jul 2019

Trading update for the quarter ended 30 June 2019 Hi @cashpharma, Vodafone are not “loosing control over the infrastructure”. They are merely (for now) combining their infrastructure with other operator(s) infrastructure(s) to form a much larger super-infrastructure with vast coverage and capacity . Making it more valuable than the sum of the individual constituent infrastructures. In fact, with regards the above Italian deal involving INWIT - if I understood it correctly, I am worried that the INWIT shareholders may not approve the deal! As they would be worried, I should imagine, that they will end up becoming a minority holders of the much enlarged INWIT while VOD and TIM own 37.5% each as well as getting big cash considerations. However, both VOD and TIM said that overtime will consider jointly reducing their respective ownership levels from 37.5% to a minimum of 25%. Is that to sweeten the deal for them? I wonder. As for the sale of Verizon Wireless, I think that was an excellent deal! It was also reflected not just in terms of VOD’s cash balance and investment levels but also in the issued VOD issued share capital. I distinctly remember the VOD shareholders got an allocation of VZ shares and some cash in return of a 6:11 consolidation. i.e. for every 11 VOD shares 5 were cancelled and 6 survived. This has saved VOD 45% in dividend payment payouts since 2014 and for the foreseeable future - a huge sum if you add it all up. I also remember how VOD used the cash proceeds and launched ‘Project Spring’ through which they acquired/built from scratch a vast fixed infrastructure spanning much of western Europe and the UK which was necessary for the deployment of 4G technology. Thanks to that effort, it is now much easier for VOD to deploy the much faster and more demanding 5G technology. In addition, big operational savings every year since, as they no longer required to pay fixed network operators their line rentals and other charges (what good are masts without the fixed network connection!). On top of that it enabled VOD to provide fixed-network services such as TV and broadband internet for a large and expanding customer base. Best Regards @ValueSeeker8

cashpharma 26 Jul 2019

Trading update for the quarter ended 30 June 2019 I think this masts ipo businessc is another example of Vodafone doing deals that are superficially appealing in the very short term but are ultimately mistakes. How can losing control over your infrastructure be at all good in the long term? It’s like the decision to sell the us investment a few years ago, you can bet the current share price malaise wouldn’t have been half as bad if they still owned it. How much of the cash from an IPO will management waste on more expensive acquisitions?

ValueSeeker8 26 Jul 2019

Trading update for the quarter ended 30 June 2019 Wow, Vodafone already taking steps to monetise its ‘forest of towers’! : RNS - VODAFONE TO COMBINE ITALIAN TOWERS WITH INWIT Key Highlights · Vodafone and Telecom Italia Group (“TIM”) (together, the “Parties”) today announce the creation of an active network sharing partnership for 4G and 5G and the expansion of their existing passive sharing agreement (together, the “Network Sharing Partnership”) · The Network Sharing Partnership is expected to enable faster deployment of 5G over a wider geographic area at a lower cost and deliver net cumulative cashflow benefits to Vodafone of at least €800 million over the next 10 years · Vodafone has also agreed to merge its passive tower infrastructure in Italy (“Vodafone Italy Towers”) into INWIT SpA (“INWIT”) (the “Combination”). As part of the Combination, Vodafone1 will receive a cash consideration of €2,140 million and a 37.5% shareholding in the combined entity, which will remain listed on the Milan Stock Exchange. Based on the 30-day VWAP of the INWIT share price prior to this announcement, Vodafone’s shareholding would be valued at €3,130 million, which implies an enterprise value for Vodafone Italy Towers of €5,270 million, equivalent to 24.0x 2018PF Adjusted EBITDA2 · Pro forma for the Combination, INWIT is expected to have an asset base comprising c.22,100 towers, making it the second largest listed tower operator in Europe. INWIT estimates that the Combination and Network Sharing Partnership will deliver additional EBITDA from synergies and committed services of approximately €110 million by 2026 · It is the intention of Vodafone and TIM to undertake a recapitalisation of INWIT following the Combination up to a maximum of 6.0x Net Debt / EBITDA, subject to achieving a BB+ (or equivalent) credit rating. Vodafone intends to use the cash proceeds from the Combination and any recapitalisation to retire existing debt · Vodafone and TIM intend to retain joint control of INWIT, but over time will consider jointly reducing their respective ownership levels from 37.5% to a minimum of 25.0% · The Combination is subject to regulatory approval as well as INWIT minority shareholders’ approval, with completion anticipated during the first half of 2020 Best Regards @ValueSeeker8

Uncle_Doug 26 Jul 2019

Slight surprise that no comments on price collapse here? Thank God for that. First bit of good news since Verizon sale back in 2013/14. Maybe they can get back to 200p? In the meantime happy to keep picking up my 6% yield.

Ripley94 26 Jul 2019

Slight surprise that no comments on price collapse here? VOD… XXXX Good news today up 10% to 145p .