gretel
02 Nov 2017
Interest rate rise benefits VLE The base rate has just been raised, so hopefully VLE will earn a little more interest on their £17m+ cash pile (against a £30m m/cap). Every little helps 
))
gretel
13 Oct 2017
Re: New highs, share buyback RNS RNS - the buyback was taken up in full. However, all but 18,000 of the shares were sold by Andrew Cohen (who's retained almost half his prior holding) and the Landers.Not many other sellers out there then.....[link]
gretel
12 Oct 2017
New highs - and presentation notes Up this afternoon, and at new highs now.VLE presented in London last night. Three posters on another board attended, and all came away pretty impressed as follows:"I went along last night, and saw Jonathan Lander present for 40 minutes, as part of a 2.5 hour session with a top City Lawyer and Creightons also presenting. A large audience for an event like this...perhaps 40 Investors and it was standing room only for those that were late...and not enough Pizza ordered to satisfy them when the food arrived at the end!In simple terms there were three parts to the presentation: the first part being about the principle of Turnaround Investing and what to look for using an example of Comet in 2011 (not one that we did, of course, but illustrated the point that what appeared like a load of old loss making assets and rubbish to the untrained eye was actually a sweet deal.The second part reviewed the history of VLE since 2002. Reminded us that every deal done since then has been successful, and that the share price is now 850% higher than at the IPO. Typical Investment period 3-5 years.Final part was about the current business, and clear that Shire runs itself, Sira is tiny, and JL spends significant time at Impetus.Clearly JL could not give any new information away which was not in the public domain. He was a very confident and charismatic presenter. They are constantly reviewing opportunities, but clearly JL is not going to take any undue risks with a large purchase which could undo all the work of the last 15 years in building this up. I think dividends would be considered at the appropriate time after the year end, but more on the basis of it being a proportion of that year's post tax earnings...rather than a big Special, using some of the Cash Pile. I for one agree with that, as the Tax ramifications could eat into that lovely SOTP valution excess over current price.I am more convinced than ever that this is a LTBH for me, and one to buy more on any dips where the gap between SOTP and market price widens beyond its already large gap. I love the fundamentals, think Impetus will continue to grow and develop at pace, and when you meet him, JL is hugely impressive.""I went too.Agree with comments about JL. Comes across as very astute and, most importantly for me, risk averse, so I guess they'll patiently continue sniffing out these fantastic low risk/big reward turnarounds, hopefully for years to come.For such an illiquid share I hold what should be an uncomfortable number, but everything I heard will encourage me to hold pretty tightly. There might be some bumps in the road but the chances of something really bad happening here seems as low as pretty much any UK listed company IMO.A few questions from PI's about dividends. Really, there are so many truly dim PI's. Who needs divis when the share price is up 750% since float?! Durrrrr!""I too attended..and no it wasn’t me that asked about dividends 🙂I’m in the can’t envisage selling camp , and may well be be adding as & when stock is aroundOne interesting point was JL mentioned that having a big lump of cash on show in the accounts definitely helped with the number of deals they were offered , he also said their speed of execution was a key source of competitive advantage as so many deals were prepacks or the vendor having a sudden unforeseen urgent need for cash...eg to plug a pension funding gap.I’d have happily spent another 30m (edited to add that’s half an hour not £
on Volvere but sadly time ran out ..and so had I to"
gretel
11 Oct 2017
New highs, share buyback RNS Maximum of 10% of the shares (£3.4m) being bought back at 835p for willing shareholders - deadline 3.00 tomorrow afternoon. The Landers are selling some (for the first time from memory), but only enough to retain the same holding in the company as presently, i.e 39% in total:"The Board believes that a return of cash is appropriate and represents a good use of the Company's excess liquidity arising from trading operations."This is as good a signal as any that the current share price is considered decent value, utilising the buyback as an opportunity to take out any larger holders who are otherwise stifled by illiquidity.I won't be donating any of my shares. It'll be interesting to see what the take-up is.
gretel
06 Oct 2017
Nice move up again yesterday. Good to see two 3k buys at 847.44 and 840p - that's £50,000 between them. Someone's keen.
gretel
02 Oct 2017
Shire Foods may be worth much more The article below is from yesterday's Sunday Times - Ginsters could buy Shire Foods in a heartbeat given their size.Worth noting that West Cornwall Pasty Co, which cost Ginsters £13m,had in the year to March'16 £13m revenues, EBITDA of £1.02m, operating profit of £560k and post tax profit of £380k.VLE's Shire Foods in the same year had £15.2m revenues and £1.15m PBT - both much higher than the West Cornwall Past Co. Plus Shire Foods has £2m+ of freehold property (plus substantial other equipment).In our NAV calculations, we've been attributing only around £6m or so to Shire including the freehold property. But you could at least double that to £12m and possibly £15m on the above basis - which would add another 150p-200p+ to the potential NAV.[link] appetite for GinstersSales at Samworth Brothers, owner of Ginsters Cornish pasties, jumped 5.6% last year to £951.9m.The Leicestershire-based food manufacturer, which produces more than 1.5m sandwiches a week and owns a string of outlets, reported profits of £45.8m for the year to December 31, according to accounts lodged at Companies House.The group, founded in 1896, snapped up West Cornwall Pasty Company for £13m last December.It now employs almost 8,400 people, and is the largest distributor of Melton Mowbray pork pies."
gretel
25 Sep 2017
More new highs, still big upside VLE are presenting on October 11th in London as follows along with Creightons and probably one or more other companies - it's free to register:[link] elsewhere has produced a "sum of the parts" valuation as follows which gives an NAV of 1,389p per share - almost 75% upside from here:-1. Shire: My profit assumption for H2 is that it will match last year's H2 of £1.02m. We are now past the anniversary of sterling devaluation, so the negative impact on margins has worked through. The re-pricings they have progressively done through H1, and also the fact that sterling in H2 may actually be better than H2 last year, may make the out-turn better. A full year out-turn PBT of £0.78m, I apply a lowly rating of 5* Post Tax Earnings to derive a value of £3.1m.2. Impetus: I am hoping for at least £3.7m PBT as already explained. I would value this much more highly, and think a market average P/E of 14 times is prudent given the growth and contractual backing for the earnings. Value £41.4m.3. Perhaps harshly I give no value to Sira.4. £2.6m of NTAV given that it is mostly freehold property.That gives a Gross Value of £47.2m, from which I deduct 20% for Minorities and a further 10% for Bruvva's Bonus for the increase in value created....so net net £31.2m. I would expect year end cash to be at least £22.5m, so my total SOTP valuation of the business is £56.6m (£13.89 a share)."This valuation increases to around 1,500p per share if you assume a prudent 10% growth rate for Impetus, introduce some value for Sira Defence etc.
gretel
22 Sep 2017
Re: Outstanding H1 results today New highs now, despite VLE being so far under the radar that this bland summary is almost the only coverage I can see anywhere:[link] has to be a combination of one of the most undervalued, one of the safest and one of the best-managed companies on the market. Gailes5, thx for responding! Good to see another face here.Sira might be worth another £1m-£2m, so another say 25p-50p per share. I do believe it has good growth prospects.Impetus has been an incredible acquisition. I certainly think a P/E of at least 15 to value it would be appropriate, but if any of the additional opportunities outlined come to fruition then much more might be in sight.
Gailes5
21 Sep 2017
Re: Outstanding H1 results today Gretel, as you must feel a bit lonely on this bb I thought I should contribute. I had held a small number inherited when they took over NMS (or something like that) many years ago. I bought a more significant number at 720 and then more today at 802 I agree with your assessment except I feel a pe of 20 for Imperus might be a bit optimistic. Even half that make the shares exceedingly cheap. Shire should have a decent second half and might even have a good one if the steps they have taken bear fruit. The third string to their bow is too small to be of significance.What the long term strategy of the Landers is we do not know but they will want to cash in at some stage. Good luck and thanks for your more or less solitary input.
gretel
21 Sep 2017
Outstanding H1 results today Wow - H1 results show a fantastic performance from Impetus....[link] core NAV is up to 623p, and cash is up to £20.5m.Impetus is now making an annualised £3.1m PBT ))If Impetus were a stand-alone PLC, at the current growth rate you could put it on a P/E of 20 and a post-tax valuation of say £55m - almost double the entire VLE m/cap.Shire and Sira are marking time. Shire's is a creditable H1 performance given the increase in raw material prices, and H2 should provide a nice profitable lift.VLE even state that the current shift in the auto industry will bring further opportunities for Impetus.We should see a decent lift-off today if investors have any sense imho.
gretel
19 Sep 2017
Re: valuation A very nice trade reported late today - a £38,000 buy of 5,000 shares at 759.98p, which is almost a whopping 10p above the 750p published offer price.Hi fourpiece. Apologies for the delayed reply, haven't looked in here over the summer!AC was indeed Betterware. He's made a lot of money in his time and presumably has a lot of faith in VLE's Lander brothers to do the same.The shares in Treasury could be re-issued to part-pay for an acquisition for example, or to satisfy the exercise of share options - though the current options in existence is absolutely tiny, so dilution for us shareholders is minimal. They could also simply be cancelled of course at some stage.Having met the Landers, I'm firmly of the belief that they simply want to build VLE to be as large as possible and establish their reputation as dealmakers. I assume they have a final m/cap in mind before they cash out. Certainly I see lots of upside from here given the apparent discount to the assets on show (imo anyway).
fourpiece
26 Jul 2017
valuation Thanks Gretel for your extensive work on the valuation of VLE, you seem to have been cautious on the numbers which will probably happen in due course. What attracted me to the company were the principles involved, Andrew Cohen,wasen't he Betterware? has 10%Michael Marks and others after selling some at £2 ish has 8% left, so with the brothers stake they have control.Can anyone tell me what 2.2mil shares in treasury,and still buying for it is for -----you could use it for a Takeover?any other thoughttsWhat is the exit for these guys ----from my perception its build and cash out, I'm with them
gretel
19 Jul 2017
NAV of 1061p, share price 725p I've prepared an updated valuation of VLE elsewhere which I thought people here might be interested in. There remains substantial upside imo.VLE is a holding company acquisition and turnaround vehicle.The current market cap is £29.56m at 725p, with 4.076m shares in issue.This compares to £26.6m of net assets at 31/12/16, i.e 653p per share at that time, including £20m of cash, i.e 490p per share.Add in realistic valuations for VLE's investments in Sira Defence, Shire Foods and Impetus Automotive - all of which could be sold at any time as per prior sales of companies which have been turned around - since their valuation in the accounts is negligible, and one can reach a valuation much in excess of the current m/cap .Based on the potential disposal values below, which equate for Impetus, Shire and Sira to an additional £20.7m or 508p or so per share, and subtracting say 100p per share for net assets disposed of, that's an additional 408p per share or so of NAV residing in the investee companies.That's a total valuation of around 1061p per share, compared to the current 725p share price.VLE now comprises: (1) The £26.6m of total net assets, i.e 653p per share (2) 80% of Shire Foods - could be worth £8m (see below) (3) 83% of Impetus Automotive - could be worth say £11m upon turnaround (see below) (4) 100% of Sira Defence (see below) - could be worth £0.7m (see below)Shire Foods, which manufactures frozen pies, pasties and other pastry products for retailers and food service customers, is now seeing the fruits of its turnaround post-acquisition in July'11 for £0.5m, with £15.2m turnover in 2016 and a £1.15m PBT. Shire also owns around £2.4m of freehold property and substantial additional plant and equipment. Including the latter, on a cautious post-tax P/E of 7 Shire could be worth say £9m to a purchaser, i.e £7.2m to VLE.Impetus Automotive (IAL) was acquired in March'15 for only £1.26m. For this VLE got: - £1m of net assets - £12m-£15m of turnover - a company previously making £1.5m PBT who appear to have had a bad year in moving to a small £0.1m loss.IAL provides "consulting services to the automotive sector, including vehicle manufacturers, dealerships and national sales companies. The company, which has UK offices in Warwick and Cranfield, employs approximately 200 people serving clients in the UK and a number of other international markets. In April 2017 IAL won responsibility for the management and delivery of a large automotive manufacturer's learning and development activities in the UK.[link] achieved £17.4m turnover in 2016 and a £1.5m PBT. Assuming say £1.8m PBT in 2018 IAL could be worth say £15m to a purchaser on a cautious post-tax P/E of 10, i.e £12.5m to VLE.Sira Defence has £400,000 of annualised revenue and made £160k PBT in 2014. As a provider of hardware and software surveillance solutions to the UK Police, judiciary, local councils, gambling industry etc, its solutions - developed in liaison with the Home Office and Met Police - are slowly gaining traction and usage, including a partnership in the USA. On a cautious post-tax P/E of 8 Sira Defence could be worth say £1m to VLE.
gretel
12 Jun 2017
Tipped on the weekend [link] (LSE: VLE) is Latin for “to turn about,” so it is fitting that this human-capital turnaround specialist makes this trio of turnaround speciailust. The company is run and owned by brothers Jonathan and Nicholas Lander, the CEO and CFO/COO respectively. Combined, the brothers own 39% of the company.The brothers have spent their lives working in people-driven sectors like Law. These sectors often get a bad rap from investors because any competitive advantage is tied to the members of staff, who can easily defect to a rival, become demotivated, or retire.The Landers love these businesses precisely because everyone else hates them. Typically, Volvere is approached by banks or the management teams of struggling businesses, placing it in a strong negotiating position.The sheer number of businesses on offer allows management to be choosy, typically only indulging in one or two deals a year. buying distressed businesses and fixing them up, the company has compounded book value at 14.4% p.a since 2002 for a total increase of 513%.How? The process goes a little like this. The Landers identify a single-digit P/E company, which is often penniless or nearly so, pays down debts, injects cash, incentivises staff, then hopefully reaps the rewards of a successful turnaround.Right now, Volvere is valued pretty much at book value, which means the market is placing no value on the Landers’ proven ability to create shareholder value. This looks too cheap to me, so the shares could be worth a second look."
gretel
26 May 2017
Great results today In summary, with 617p of net assets per share (including £20m cash), the three subsidiary businesses are valued at very, very little.They make a combined £2.8m PBT before group charges, so around £2.4m after tax at 20%. That's a P/E adjusted for net cash of only around 3 based on those figures.This new 3-year contract sounds transformational for Impetus: "As part of a plan to widen Impetus's service offering the company has, with effect from April 2017, assumed responsibility for the management and delivery of a large automotive manufacturer's learning and development activities in the UK. As a result, Impetus now employs almost 400 people (an increase of approximately 150 compared to March 2017) and we expect Impetus' financial contribution to increase further this year as a result."Impetus is already a big winner, but this should take it to the next level.Shire is doing well enough and is highly profitable despite obvious headwinds. I like the sound of the new seasonal ranges.And Sira is now a seriously profitable entity making £160,000 PBT (up from £120k last year). Many AIM companies are valued at £15m-£20m or much more without such profitability!
