Matal
23 Mar 2018
Shorts on the run! That's one fund out of five out of the race! Total stock reported shorted has been reduced from 3.2% to 2.77%.
d gaser
23 Mar 2018
Grant of 890,620 free shares to Bod ,for What ? How can they pay this, when the company has lost over 50% of its value in the last year, and has according to sum has now dropped out of the top 250 companies index ? Be HappyDave Grant of an award under the Company's Long Term Incentive Plan as a nil exercise price option. Vesting is subject to (i) stretching performance over 3 financial years commencing with the year of grant and (ii) continued service, and is normally 3 years after grant. Further details of the performance targets will be set out in the Directors' Remuneration Report included in the Company's Report an Accounts.
Matal
23 Mar 2018
Slides 17 to 20. A massive statement of intent! With many thanks to the highly respected 'Polaris' who posts on another discussion board, he was replying to a post intimating that GSK have cash to burn:The thing is that GSK do not have cash burning a hole in their pocket, that is why they have withdrawn from the bidding for the consumer healthcare side of the Pfizer business. The SP has been depressed by the news as any acquisition of that size was going to require new paper, possibly a rights issue and the likely cutting of the dividend. This was all viewed as bad by major shareholders. Now it is out of the way then GSK can focus on their strategy of firming up the pharma business as the highest priority. The two major thrusts there are the respiratory products (Nucala, Ellipta) and the HIV (Juluca, Triumeq, Tivicay).The interest for VEC is in the former and i am sure it will be a few weeks before we have any clue how GSK might act. The litigation between GSK and VEC means that both sides have all the info on the IP for the delivery device. If GSK feel that VEC might have the IP protection to get an AB-rated substitutable device on the market then i am sure they will act to remove the threat. GSK will be willing to pay more than a competitor as any US pricing will be heavily impacted by a generic entrant, as the market size and margin decrease if that happens. If GSK take out any potential competition then that threat goes away.The 2017 US sales of the Ellipta series were 1Bn GBP, with the 5th product (Trelegy) only just launched. The Growth rate is in the >50% region across the series. Global sales were 1.6Bn GBP. Projecting forward to 2020 then i expect the US market to be worth close to 2bn GBP for the series of products. Global sales to be about the same as current ratio so add 60%, or 3.2Bn GBP.My guestimate is that a generic entrant into the US Ellipta market in 2020 would half the market size due to pricing pressure, so reduce US market to about 1Bn GBP. A generic entrant can expect 25% of total sales, maybe more. An agreement with a tier I pharma or generics company will probably bring in high teens %age for VEC in royalties and manufacturing revenue. If it is a combination of around 4% IP royalty (100% margin) and 12% on manufacturing (50% margin) then VEC are looking at revenues of 10M+30M=40M GBP p.a. and a bottom line increase of 10M+15M=25M GBP. If the device was approved worldwide then i am sure you can work out the new numbers.What would this be worth to a competitior to GSK? Probably more importantly, what would this be worth to GSK to protect the market for 5+ years?To my mind, the threat, if deemed high probability, has the potential to reduce the respiratory division sales at GSK by over 1Bn GBP p.a. from 2020 (just on the US market!). Therefore, they would be willing to pay above the odds due to the higher material impact on their figures from a generic entrant.Now i am no expert with DCF or other valuation models, but it doesn't take a lot of imagination to realise that GSK buying VEC to get the IP protection, new device technology and to sell off the parts that they have no overall interest in does now make sense. Generic Advair reasoning for a takeover (as per that Telegraph article) is a false flag IMO. The numbers do not make sense. For me, they do now. (As posted... they DO now do me also! Matal)It all now lies with the patent lawyers and the interpretation of the GSK/VEC IP as to exactly how much this might be worth to a predator. The EU hearing is expected in 2018 and the US case is now delayed to Q2 2019.If there is any reasonable probability of GSK losing market incumbent status for Ellipta then they will move, IMO. The value of the IP might also drive others into the fray or to preempt any GSK move.The underlying business here is sound and so it puts a bottom in the price. I believe that is above where we are now but short term trading may still show that to be the 69-70p region. The downside from here
Chicken Lips
23 Mar 2018
Re: It's starting! Stifel today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Vectura Group PLC (LON:VEC) and set its price target at 151p.Thats a 100% plus growth target for the SP
Matal
22 Mar 2018
Re: It's starting! " -or do they just follow their own herd rather than bother paying attention to the information they are provided with". Yep, spot on! JP Morgan have reiterated-overweight and TP = 140p.
dave297
22 Mar 2018
Re: It's starting! Good to see "insiders" buying but I will be glad to see our CEO & FD announce meaningfully buys too ,maybe tomorrow.Markets very shakey currently but those in "the know" will be well aware of our potential to disrupt the plans of a global pharma.Even we downtrodden Vec/SKP shareholders are entitled to a moment of optimism,particularly after yesterdays dire performance .It does make one wonder what those highly paid Analysts analyse -or do they just follow their own herd rather than bother paying attention to the information they are provided with.
Chicken Lips
22 Mar 2018
Against All Odds Well, as per my previous post I couldn't push sentimentality aside any longer. Dipped a very small toe into the water today. A tiddler for old times sake. Was a bit amazed to see broker notes of 160 plus I think today or was I hallucinating.Good luck all
d gaser
22 Mar 2018
At last the worm has turned, as the BOD buy Well things certainly looked gloomy yesterday, yet today things have turned positive once again as several BOD members decided it was time to back the company with their own cash and purchased some shares on the open market ,and now the S/P is moving North on the back of it ,lets hope it continues . BE HAPPYDAVE
Matal
22 Mar 2018
Re: It's starting! Now 50,000 for a none executive director!
Matal
22 Mar 2018
Re: It's starting! Now HBM!
Matal
22 Mar 2018
It's starting! Chairman first... 75,000 at 76p
Matal
22 Mar 2018
Re: The Implications of slide 19 Yes Dave, the fact that they have put this in the public domain and ALSO and VERY importantly... mention their collaboration with the FDA on introducing a substitutable AB-rated generic drug device for the five Ellipta products seems to me to be a huge cannon pointing directly down GSK's throat! THIS is what the litigation case is all about! GSK have little or NO patent protection here and there is high risk to their next generation best sellers. If VEC get partnered up with a big generic Pharma on this, which they surely will... it could well leave GSK in danger of being left up the creek without a paddle! They are going to have to move very fast if they want to prevent It! Taking out VEC even at over £2 billion would be well worth it to protect their future earnings. When you take this in conjunction with the other work on three of the best selling products on the US market, INCLUDING the Advair generic the stakes are enormous! Other big Pharma generic's such as Stada and Hikma are almost certain to want a piece of this too, so a bidding war for VEC's tech and IP which GSK as the incumbent simply cannot afford to lose... would seem to me to be only way this can go! No wonder the L&G manager has been filling his boots, I believe the rest of them have got this very wrong, the sp should have gone the other way... and imo a big correction is on the cards when they realise what this is all about!
dave297
21 Mar 2018
Re: The Implications of slide 19 I have just reviewed & agree entirely about slide 19 ,which appears to provide my best hope if a better exit than I may have previously expected.The message here is that we have a potentially potent weapon & will need a major partner to assist.It could be HIK ,with view to our existing partnership,but we could possibly aim our sights on a much larger global pharma who would desperate love to dent GSKs growth prospect &,indeed, a former employer of our CEO.Either that or a bidding war ensues for Vec hopefully resulting in a much higher price than 70p.Interesting to see shorters start closing their positions ,take their profits & avoid massive losses if any surprises occur sooner than expected.Perhaps our Board & PDMR s have bought large amounts of shares today & I am hoping for a recovery tomorrow,of some sort.
Matal
21 Mar 2018
The Implications of slide 19 ... is a fabulous unexploded bomb that seems to have passed under the radar. Bet it doesn't stay there! Now this is out there it could even start a bidding war very soon indeed. "Pharmaceutical development has already commenced". GSK are going to have to move fast if they want to prevent "partnering discussions" between VEC and another big pharma from progressing to being a threat to their next generation $6 billion earner! o Following FDA interactions, Vectura is progressing the development of its Open-Inhale-Close device which has the potential to be an AB-rated substitutable generic drug-device combination for the GSK Ellipta(R) portfolio. This is a significant opportunity, with analyst projections of global net sales of the Ellipta(R) products of approximately $6 billion by 2023([8]) . Pharmaceutical development has commenced, in parallel with partnering discussions.
Chicken Lips
21 Mar 2018
The Times - hold M&A play “Excuse me. I’ve got a tickle in my throat,” a coughing James Ward-Lilley, chief executive of Vectura, said as he ran through full-year results yesterday. Vectura’s performance has also left investors spluttering this year. Shares in the asthma inhaler company have halved, triggering its demotion from the FTSE 250 index.Mr Ward-Lilley, a former head of respiratory at Astrazeneca, called it a “challenging 2017”. Despite the shares weakening again yesterday, down 12¼p to 68½p, there remains room for optimism.The Chippenham-based company has expanded through acquisitions and partnerships, such as the merger with Skyepharma in 2016, to become one of the leading respiratory device and formulation companies.[link] main issues have been delays to a key late-stage generic of Glaxosmithkline’s blockbuster Advair inhaler, which Vectura wants to launch in the US with Hikma Pharmaceuticals. Potential approval has been delayed until 2020. The hold-up could be particularly costly as Vectura and Hikma are in a race with rivals to launch the inhaler.The other issue that has left investors feeling wheezy has been customers destocking their supply chains, which has weighed on revenues, and was flagged at the half-year results.The annual results are complicated by Vectura changing its accounting period from March to December after its merger with Skyepharma. Underlying revenue was up 4 per cent to £131.4 million, driven by key products such as Flutiform and Ultibro, to leave underlying earnings of £25.8 million compared with £34.1 million for the nine-month period in 2016. On a statutory basis, losses deepened to £102.2 million, blamed on “discontinued royalty revenues and significant non-recurring milestones” as well as increased amortisation charges.Vectura has responded by derisking its pipeline to focus on partnered generic products in the US. Potential catalysts for the stock include data expected in the second half for two asthma studies and, with cash of £103.7 million, potential deals.The slump in Vectura’s share price has also left it vulnerable to predatory takeover interest. ADVICE HoldWHY Signs the shares are near lowest and potential M&A play
