d gaser
10 Feb 2018
FDA have rejected 3rd players generic Advair this Advice came from Barclays daily info .if true it means we could still be first with a generic Advair BE HAPPY Dave DAVE Kepler Cheuvreux upped its stance on pharmaceuticals giant GlaxoSmithKline to 'hold' from 'reduce' on Friday, lifting the price target to 1,360p from 1,340p as it said the worst-case scenario for the stock was now priced inKepler's 'reduce' case had been based on investors underestimating the impact of generic US Advair on the pharma business's operating profit, as well as stronger-than-expected HIV competition. But investors appear to now be pricing in worst-case scenarios for HIV and US generic Advair, both of which catalysts have become less negative since the new guidance issued by the company this week.It noted that the last of the three generic Advair developers had a complete response letter from the FDA on 8 February. The FDA sends a complete response letter when it has completed its review of a new or generic drug application and decided that it will not approve it for marketing in its present form.Kepler also pointed out that GSK is suing Gilead, the maker of bictegravir and its key HIV competitor, for patent infringement, which could lead to a royalty stream.
d gaser
07 Feb 2018
GSK results in full . full results from GSK go to www.gsk.com/media/4629/fy-2017-results-announcement.pdf below is an extract from those results, note the Total Relvar/Breo Ellipta sales . BE HAPPYDave Respiratory Total Respiratory portfolio sales were up 7% AER, 3% CER, with the US up 8% AER, 3% CER, Europe up 5% AER but flat at CER and International up 9% AER, 5% CER. Growth of the new Respiratory products more than offset the decline in Seretide/Advair. The new Respiratory products recorded combined sales of £1,930 million in 2017 with sales of Ellipta products up 67% AER, 59% CER driven by continued strong growth in the US and the ongoing roll-out across Europe and International. Sales of Nucala were £344 million, a Sterling increase of £242 million, and included sales of £236 million in the US. The aggregate growth of the Ellipta products was driven primarily by the contribution of the US, where sales were up 72% AER, 65% CER on the back of further market share gains. Total Relvar/Breo Ellipta sales grew 62% AER, 55% CER to £1,006 million, with the US up 75% AER, 67% CER to £602 million. Anoro Ellipta sales grew 70% AER, 63% CER to £342 million, also reflecting market share gains in the US. All Ellipta products, Breo, Anoro, Incruse and Arnuity, continued to grow market share in the US in the year. Seretide/Advair sales declined 10% AER, 14% CER to £3,130 million. Sales in the US declined 12% AER, 16% CER (5% volume decline and a 11% negative impact of price), with payer rebate adjustments related to prior periods favourably impacting sales in the year. In Europe, Seretide sales were down 12% AER, 17% CER to £736 million (11% volume decline and a 6% negative impact of price), reflecting continued competition from generics and the transition of the Respiratory portfolio to newer products. In International, sales of Seretide declined 5% AER, 8% CER to £784 million (6% volume decline and a 2% negative impact of price), also reflecting increased generic competition and the transition to the newer Respiratory products.
d gaser
07 Feb 2018
Re: GSK generic Advair to be lounched mid y... For got to include the full article BE HAPPYDAVE ShareCast News) - GlaxoSmithKline's full year results will be under the microscope on Wednesday with the shares down by a quarter from last year's summer highs, while there's plenty more for investors who want to focus on the fundamentals rather than the technical levels that were hammering global markets in recent sessions.Grainger, Redrow, Rio Tinto, Smurfit Kappa and Tullow Oil will all report full- or half-year results at 0700 GMT on Wednesday, with Severn Trent providing a quarterly update.There will also be a house prices report from the Halifax at 0830 GMT, where year-on-year growth is predicted to ease to 2.4% for the three months to January from 2.7% in December.GSK last updated the market in October when new new CEO Emma Walmsley, who was promoted in April after running the consumer division, reported sales in line with expectations for the third quarter.Britain's biggest pharmaceuticals group said sales rose 4% to £7.84bn in the three months to 30 September, versus analysts' average forecast of £7.88bn. Adjusted earnings per share rose 3% to 32.5p.For the full year, Deutsche Bank expected GSK to deliver adjusted EPS growth of around 3% at constant exchange rates, which would be at the lower end of Walmsley's guidance range for "mid-single digit growth" for EPS at CER."We expect '18 guidance to encompass prior cautiouscommentary over margins, given a need to invest in new launches and the pipeline, with a low-to-mid single CER EPS decline likely in the event of a mid year generic Advair launch," analysts said, referring to a rival asthma treatment that would hit sales of GSK's Advair. More positively, DB believes recent US tax reform is likely to be a modest positive and said the shares' valuation looked "undemanding".UBS forecast fourth-quarter sales of £7.5bn, core operating profit of £2.0bn and core EPS of 25p. GSK's consumer healthcare franchise will be carefully looked at for two reasons, UBS said, first being a possible update Novartis' 36.5% stake which can be put to GSK in 2018 and the second being "GSK's appetite for this business" given Pfizer's strategic review of their consumer franchise and recent press speculation."Related to this, and recent earnings downgrades we expect the spotlight in Q&A to focus on dividend sustainability again. We will be particularly interested in any commentary on tax reform...In the longer term, GlaxoSmithKline'sguidance for 2020 (mid-single digit growth for EPS at CER) is currently significantly ahead of us and consensus, we would be interested in any commentary on how company willstretch to reach this target."GSK's above-market prospective dividend yield of 5.6% reflects speculation that dividend payments could be in the firing line as the pharmaceuticals giant looks to fund further growth, said broker Hargreaves Lansdown. "There's some justification for those fears," analysts said, with some tantalising acquisition opportunities as Pfizer and Merck look to make disposals.But with GSK's pharmaceuticals business struggling with declining sales from respiratory blockbuster Advair/Seretide and the new pipeline is delivering a steady stream of results but needing time and investment to ramp up sales, "cash is at a premium, and it would be foolish to think the £3.9bn dividend hasn't attracted a long hard look".
d gaser
07 Feb 2018
GSK generic Advair to be lounched mid year I have just taken this from the GSK ,it talks about the full year sales figures and dividend ,but they also talk about a midyear generic Advair being launched, they also say there new product ,is only growing slowly,that might be because our Novartis product has increased its position in this field .If it's our Advair that's expected to be launched mid year then the price should start to head north once again ,how ever, if it's the competitions product then we will be to late to take advantage with our own generic ,and that will hold back our price .Be Happy Dave guidance We expect to encompass prior cautious commentary over margins, given a need to invest in new launches, and the pipeline, with a low-to-mid single CER EPS decline likely in the event of a midyear generic Advair launch,analysts said, referring to a rival asthma treatment that would hit sales of GSK's Advair. However with GSK's pharmaceuticals business struggling with declining sales from respiratory blockbuster Advair/Seretide and the new pipeline delivering a steady stream of results, but it needs time and investment to ramp up sales , cash is at a premium.
Andy Reilly
02 Feb 2018
Re: fall due to Astra Zeneca new tripple... r69 - it is ufortunately one of th features of investing these days! Lets just hope VEC can return to better growth, AND a better SP .... I bought another 1500 yesterday (on the basis of buy low sell high!), and I am 'just about' in the black with them, or maybe neutral since looking at the chart(!) (bought at 90.125p1), but I didnt want to risk any more, as I really wasn't sure about VECs prospects! Anyway, have a good Friday and dont let stocks get you down. ATB
raptor66
02 Feb 2018
Re: fall due to Astra Zeneca new tripple... Or, shorters are buying back??Vec sp is being manipulated very well by the vultures. To me, it seems Vec is the new football, anyone for a game?
Andy Reilly
02 Feb 2018
Re: fall due to Astra Zeneca new tripple... All a bit tentative today, but quite a few people having a dabble! Hopefully the SP will pull up, and away from support.... BUT clearly there is still a degree of uncertainty after the recent fall. Confidence takes time to build, and one can only hope it has substance behind it! ATB to all holders -
Andy Reilly
01 Feb 2018
Re: fall due to Astra Zeneca new tripple use... dg - well VEC is under the cosh, and clearly competition to its inhaler tech from GSK is feeding anxiety. The SP has certainly been under pressure for a while BUT the current SP level was hit back in Sept (7th) and November (10th) - the SP looks to be on support now, so hopefully the SP will recover a bit from here (Just my view, and I could be wrong!). Clearly it will take time (and some positive news from VEC) to repair the damage! Its just a matter of sweating it out, and either setting a target sell price (IF you have totally lost confidence in VEC) OR hanging on and hoping for a recovery in BECs fortunes! Apart from that, I hope things go relatively well for you... and its FEBRUARY already!!! ATB ARPS - that SELL signal back in May was absolutely correct (again!). I wait to see whether the SP has found support at this level, before considering an ADD... the broker certainly has got their buy call wrong! (another example of why its not a good idea to take the Co's brokers view at face value) ITS THEIR JOB TO PROMOTE THEM!!!
Chicken Lips
01 Feb 2018
Re: fall due to Astra Zeneca new tripple... Personally I think the lack of clarity over Europe is a negative. All projections are showing a decline in growth, we have seen manufacturing down today and in the past few days growth up in Europe and states ahead of U.K. Some industries will experience benefits from export and material costs through sterling and agree pharma is taking a hit. Sentiment is always at the fore of many stock increases and falls. Vec needs some positive plays - down 7% today. Those behind the merger should be arrested.I don't think Astra is a direct impact but any talk up of anything similar by a big player ha s to count. Immunotherapy and T cell seems to be he big news at the moment. Does this show a big move away from traditional treatment methods, in some ways yes.AS I keep saying Just some good news would hel
Ambiorix1
01 Feb 2018
Re: fall due to Astra Zeneca new tripple... I don’t think Vectura’s fall has something to do with Astra or even Brexit. Over the last few days all that smells Pharma plunged: GSK, AZA, SPH, SPI, Shire etc. and this is not a British phenomenon alone. In Europe and even in het US, one can see a sudden and general decline in pharma stock prices. The week before all pharma indexes were still nicely up after some spectacular M&A activity. However, at the start of this week, Trump repeated his promises to lower prices for medicines… and if this was not enough, Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan Chase announced on Tuesday that they're banding together to create a company that wants to reduce health-care costs and improve services for U.S. employees. Remember health spending represents 18 percent of U.S. gross domestic product and is expected to reach 20 percent by 2025. This reducing prices is something pharma investors don’t like to hear. But I don’t think this correction will last long. Last week, in Davos, Trump met CEO’s from Bayer, Novartis, Roche etc. in order to promote investment in the US. So this seems a very dual approach to me. I think all that rumble about reducing health-care costs just aims to calm down his voters public, and in a few weeks all will be cooled down without blowing. And for the rest, I’m in no doubt Amazon’s business model is making us even sicker since it is sending us more and more small but more polluting vans on the streets for delivery at home. One day Amazon is going to pay for that. And for how long Berkshire will stay healthy after their legendary CEO’s leave it on their stairway to heaven ?But there is another more fundamental question to answer... Why is HBM Healthcare, VEC's main shareholder selling so much shares of its most important share ? Is it just keeping the price low to make it possible for VEC to buy back its shares at a lower price ?Ambiorix.
Chicken Lips
31 Jan 2018
Re: fall due to Astra Zeneca new tripple use... And its down over 2%. That is still one of my holdings although again much reduced since it ping longed around £55. I held quite a lot in Astra at one point and now done to about break even point. I wonder if the days of the monolith are over in pharma and other industries.
d gaser
31 Jan 2018
fall due to Astra Zeneca new tripple use inhaler Brexit in this case has nothing to do with today’s fall, Unfortunately it appears that Astra Zeneca are on the point of obtaining clearance for their new triple use inhaler BE HAPPYDAVE AstraZeneca PLC (LON:AZN) has reported positive top-line data from a phase III trial which compared its PT010 therapy for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) against existing treatments.The FTSE 100 drugmaker said its triple combination inhaler “demonstrated a statistically significant improvement” in eight of the nine lung function primary endpoints compared with dual combo therapies. www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/190671/astrazeneca-reports-positive-top-line-data-from-phase-iii-copd-trial-190671.html
Chicken Lips
31 Jan 2018
Re: GSK Hi AndyIts really tragic. What a horlix! Looks like its heading further south in spite of the buys of shares. I dabbled at around 1.10 but got back out again when it continued to be choppy. I think I was still reminiscing on the vapours of past glories. Needs a run of progressively good news/press releases. Just on the broader picture Pharma is very mixed at the moment with even the big boys struggling to maintain upward momentum by consolidation or positive press release. I have a number of companies in my portfolio and up down up down would be a good description of the last month.I think Brexit is frustrating the whole thing, well nobody having a scooby about what is happening and what Brexit is/means.
Andy Reilly
30 Jan 2018
Re: GSK Well - down today, and 98.5p looks quite achievable! The heathcare sector took a hit today in th US, and the DOW took a reasonable hit too! The SP is getting ;reasonably' into 'over sold territory', so the SP may well be readyto attract buyers soon, after testing 98.5p.... All speculation on my part, but the ride is certainly proving a bit bumpy... Lets just hope the SP is ready to turn! ATB to all -
Andy Reilly
24 Jan 2018
Re: GSK sos - well VEC continues to stuggle, and the market looks decidedly sceptical of any T/O! The FD's rather small buys dont seem well timed either..... and one can but hope VEC recovers soon.... its all rather opaque right now, but there is support around 103p, then 98.5pI VEC clearly needs some rretty positive news to stop the drift lower! ATB -
