WD in yorkshire
13 Feb 2017
Avalon and Grass Inc - Broker Rec Average broker price target is 463 (465,475,450) - (behind the curve, should be 580)Avalon and Grass Inc should add around 50p to the share price (today, but the terms of sale include a performance incentive through to 2021, so expect growth).So, expect broker average targets to increase circa 510 (behind the curve, should be 630)DYOR
WD in yorkshire
13 Feb 2017
Outlook [link]
Hauler1
07 Feb 2017
Why? Industry wide positive numbers thus farHeadlam product price increase because of currency / VCP Product Price modest increase being in line with mkt (WITHOUT currency issue for Carpet purchase)Synergies of acquisitions: operationally and customer facingStrength of Aussie Dollar: 29% of revs coming from Down underMultiples comprehensively stacking up: debt, PE etcALL this without the New CEO yet engaged...his efforts, 3 more acquisitions, good synergies, stable market, sterling weakness: 700+p seems eminently possible.
Hauler1
07 Feb 2017
Prediction... Some time in late March (like last year) VCP announces that Results will be materially ahead of Consensus expectations...Followed by WH, Finn & Cantors upgrading their numbers & target prices.UNLESS there is another acquisition in the meantime...H
WD in yorkshire
27 Jan 2017
"every building has at least one floor" 
[link]
Hauler1
26 Jan 2017
NEW CEO: his old Job... Balta Group claims to be the “largest producer of textile floor coverings in Europe”. With consolidated net revenue of €557m, 95% of product is exported via offices in Belgium, Turkey and the US. Balta Group comprises Balta Rugs (producing woven area rugs), Balta Broadloom and ITC (wall-to-wall carpets and residential carpet tiles), Arc Edition (wall-to-wall contract carpet), Modulyss (commercial carpet tiles) and Captiqs (needle felt and technical non-wovens).
Hauler1
26 Jan 2017
Strong buying in size today... Some large clips going through...
Hauler1
24 Jan 2017
Re: Dumb question NPHThe sudden price drop was a corporate action: 5 shares replaced one share...correspondingly the share price divided by 5 as well. Where charts have not been updated this corporate action looks like a sharp price fall...it is annoying that in this day and age it still happens.Hauler
northern pike hunter
24 Jan 2017
Dumb question New to this share and excited by the possibilities. Why the sudden price drop in September last year? Thanks in advance.
Hauler1
21 Jan 2017
Re: 2017 - 2019 Group consolidation...X 1.10I think there might be a bit more in the tank than a 10% increase for group synergies...H
WD in yorkshire
21 Jan 2017
2017 - 2019 Observation: some posters here saw this value (£20 / 400p) in Sep 2015 derived from simply summing up the group earnings (victoria, abingdon, westex, whitestone, quest, interfloor) on an annualized basis. So, there is currently a lag of around 16 months for the valuation to catch up with earnings. Since Sep 2015 Ezi Floor (EBITDA £2.4M) and Dunlop Flooring (EBITDA £3.5M) were acquired in Oct 16 and Dec 16 respectively. We can put a crude valuation on these parts of the business, say 80p, giving an implied valuation of 480p for the group.Where could it go from 480p?Well we could look at the AUD/GBP. This averaged 2 AUD to the GBP in FY15/16. Look at the average so far this year, it is around 1.7 and so the AUD like for like earning will be >10% higher at year end. Take Hauler’s point about strong performance in the sector, hard to evaluate, but clearly it is indicative of good results for the year.Now consider the high volume of flooring imports from Europe and the impact of the GBP/EUR exchange. These imported product costs have increased by >10% and this will contribute towards improved VCP sales in the UK.Geoff Wilding has stated he will give the companies in the group autonomy. This sounds sensible to start with but phase two which I referred to will see the companies working closer in the future, driving both efficiency and sales (I presume, it is the obvious thing to do).Geoff Wilding keeps renewing his commitment to acquisitions and nobody can argue against his track record. This could continue to add anything between 50p and 100p per year to the share price.Lets crunch numbers:480p x 1.15 (exchange rate influences) = 552p (note this could reverse!)552p x 1.05 (sector performance) = 580p580p x 1.10 (group consolidation) = 638p638 + 50/100 per year (acquisitions) = 688-738 (17/18), 688-788 (18/19)Thoughts?
Hauler1
21 Jan 2017
Re: 20.00 barrier gone Agree WD - spot on. I also think the share price fall post brexit (starting earlier from 1600 with lano) from 1400 ish to 1050 set the trajectory for VCP lower by the presence of ongoing fears around Brexit. . . Even with the early message from the co concerning the net effects of brexit, imports etc and through good news since. So your point number 4 is interesting:Had the vote for brexit gone the other way then my hunch is that VCP would have been tracking on a fair bit higher of a trajectory since the vote. WIth GW early comments on the business + acquisitions + CEO hire this trajectory is rebalancing higher and is aided by headlam news and wider consumer figures etc...unless the mkt has got wind of something not widely known (which reason suggests would be another acquisition or something more). My point: that to some extent we are re-valuing back from a lower trajectory to something more appropriate for this company unless there is something else in the pipeline. Hauler
WD in yorkshire
20 Jan 2017
Re: 20.00 barrier gone KCMFour things I believe:1, GBP/EUR rate is hurting carpet imports2. AUS margin is improved by GBP/EUR rate3. Phase 2 driven by the newly appointed CEO (Phase 1 allowed autonomy between group entities. Phase 2 I expect will drive integration, consolidations, sales and efficiency)4. Positive uk sentiment & spendingand 5. for good measures, the acquisition strategy is proven, will continue and investors are waking to this.
KEEPING CALM MIKE
20 Jan 2017
Re: 20.00 barrier gone Wow , what is driving this ?? Looks like the Brokers targets from mid December look good. K.C.M.
CASTLEFORD TIGER
20 Jan 2017
20.00 barrier gone MORE TO COME.....in my opinionTiger
