numberbiter
11 Jul 2016
Mixed messages On 22 March, the company issued a statement saying, "profits will be materially ahead of market expectations." The problem was that we did not know the value of 'market expectations'. Then on 28 June the company listed an 'Investor Presentation' (dated April) in which it said that 'market consensus forecast numbers' for the year ended 2 April 2016 was 'profit before exceptionals and tax would be £15.3 million. But why were these numbers used when the previous statement said things were 'materially better'So what is going on is anybody's guess! Hopefully, the Annual Report due out at the end of this month will reveal all.
Hauler1
04 Jul 2016
5.5 things I want to see in the next year... Jose, NB, Bovem, WD...it is just a real tragedy that something so external & political could have such a current profound effect on the share price.Over the next year...(With shares 10.15 bid)1 : 2016 Post Tax Earnings > 17 mln GBP (historic PE 13.5)2 : Update on stability of loan facility for acquisitions3 : Quality Acquisitions4 : Net Debt position in 2016 Numbers4.5 : April 2017 trading update...5 : 2017 Post Tax Earnings > 23.7 mln GBP (PE 9.7)All of these things represent fundamental "conditions of satisfaction" for this business: if they are all ticks/positive then the share price will in its own time start to move higher...but this takes buyers, and buyers need confidence...not only in the above but also in seeing stability in the UK.IRONICALLY...Point 3 on acquisitions may not necessarily be greeted short term positively (as it has been in the past) with Brexit uncertainty: Fortune favours the brave.......BUT......... it is the what if's of increased company debt, currency moves, debt + further recession risk, etc that might perhaps weigh on the shares at such a time...but this will play out in the end....as a shareholder I want the management to be sensitively and aggressively acquisitive even if it raises fear in the short term...fortune will favour the brave...when and if things come good they will come good rapidly in such a scenario...such is the lot of a good quality business in the backdrop of uncertainty we face.Of note, we have gone down from 1400 to 1015 on about 150,000 shares traded (total shares out there: 18,190,000) over 6 days. Hardly the voice of the shareholder body...If each of these points above (particularly 4.5 & 5) gets delivered satisfactorily then there will be upwards share pressure that will exceed the negativity (whether that is long or short lived) to quote Buffett again: in the short term the market is a voting machine and in the long term it is a weighing machine...currently we are voted down but will be weighed...deliver the above and the weighing comes good.HAULER
JoseFrio
04 Jul 2016
Re: YOU ARE WRONG Talk of a second referundum producing a different outcome is fantasy. If it were to happen many people would be so mad at having their voices not listened to in the first place that for every regretful leaver who votes remain, there would be two who voted remain that would switch to leave - all IMO, but I know that's what I would do.My guess is that we will re-enter the single market a la Norway which means we still have to pay lots of money to the EU and there is very little extra restriction on EU immigration. It has to be a Remainer that negotiates this (May presumably) since Leavers will be too embarrassed at the broken promise to control immigration. For every trade deal we negotiate outside the EU (probably with the help of New Zealand trade negotiators) that is more favourable, there will be one that is less favourable. So no gain there either.We will be a little freer to control our own destiny in some respects, and this may in due course be a good thing, as long as we don't turn into a xenophobiac inward-looking nation which is also possible. Scotland will become independent. But then that would have happened eventually anyway.There is an earthquake happening in politics in many places - US (if Trump wins), France, Spain, Italy, Greece for starters - which means there will be plenty of political and economic crises within the EU and we will be a bit better off being further removed from them. But our economy is so linked to our trading partners' that the shocks will still be felt strongly.There will be a nasty recession in the next 2 years due to delays in investment, home purchases etc. caused by uncertainty. But this will be mitigated by the lower pound and the economy may start to grow more strongly than if there had been no brexit.In other words it is not a complete disaster. It is a bad thing for shares and other asset classes (except precious metals) for a while, and after that who knows? Could be good, could be bad.I bought into VCP last week, having been a shareholder years ago but having missed out on their recent stratospheric rise, I had thought for ever. In fact I was waiting for them to drop to £13, but got back in at £10.50. I think I was too early and would not be surprised to see another 25% off in the next few months, but hopefully not and the longer term prospects look darn good to me.Just my six penn'orth. Feel free to contradict but please don't give me that "Leavers didn't really mean it" shtick. Politicians on both sides had their chance, Osbourne blew the Remain vote and that's politics. We need a new political system here to be honest, but I have no idea how we achieve that.
Bovem99
04 Jul 2016
Re: Is BREXIT a monumental opportunity? Positive note from Growth Company Investor "VictoriaBUY01/07/16Like most housing-related stocks, Victoria (AIM: VCP) has been hit by post-Brexit fears of recession. No one knows how the economy will pan out; but Chairman Geoff Wilding believes Victoria is in better shape than that implied by the market’s reaction.With a 15 per cent market share in UK floorings, Victoria should be able to make gains at the expense of the 55 per cent which is imported. The devaluation of sterling against the euro makes imports less competitive and hands a cost advantage to domestic producers like Victoria. It’s true that price of imported fibres will rise; but they represent only 16 per cent of UK manufacturing costs. Wilding also says that he has fully hedged this year’s raw material purchases in any case.At a group level there will also be some foreign exchange gains from translating the 20 per cent of profits that are generated in Australia. Acquisitions form a big part of the Victoria story as management seeks to consolidate the industry. This strategy is unchanged and the company is still looking in Europe as well as the UK and Australia. The talks with Lano of Belgium were terminated in April and it’s fair to say Victoria’s firepower has been diminished by currency and share price falls. However this aspect of the investment case is more about management finding the right deal rather than fine tuning the price.Results for the year to March will be released at the end of this month and we should learn more about the outlook at that stage. Carpet distributor Headlam (LSE: HEAD) recently said this year had started well; but that was before the referendum. On current forecasts the shares are on a p/e of 10 times this year’s earnings which looks terrific value, in the absence of a recession of course."
numberbiter
03 Jul 2016
Re: YOU ARE WRONG You are right; if we had a second referendum Remain would win easily. Those leading the Leave campaign (excluding Farage) hoped to lose the vote but give the EU a bloody nose. Now, they simply don't know what to do.Since Brexit my shares have had a torrid time, but as I always like betting each way, I had liquidated some prior to the referendum (saving even greater losses).So the answer to your question is that I believe the recent recovery in the FTSE 100 to be temporary and when the real affect of Brexit is known the index will fall to below 5,000.The annoying thing is that this suffering is unnecessary. The referendum was not legally binding and we can only leave the EU if the UK Partliament votes to do so. MP's can and should ignore the referendum (as you said, only a minority of the population wanted to Leave) and vote to stay in the EU, We should all get in touch with our MP and make it clear what their responsibilities are; that is to protect the UK,
Hauler1
02 Jul 2016
Re: YOU ARE WRONG Firstly - your downgrade to 500p is actually an upgrade from your original 400p forecast in a pre brexit world on the company.Secondly, you may well be right...but if you are, then something unique will have happened:36% of the electorate: many of whom are already feeling lied to (as you state), many of whom are remorseful for what they felt was only meant to be a protest vote, many of whom are starting to sense that the Remain campaign of fear was PERHAPS actually the Remain campaign of warning after all, many of whom will revise strongly their vote - if your economic apocalypse even hints at looking to be proved right...this already diminishing 36% of the populace will start to feel the pain tangibly being visited on many aspect of their lives and their community's lives...from the real prospect of sheep farming in wales not having 270 mln a year from a disappearance of 7 bln of funds for science and research (1 bln a year)from no discernable change in immigration as it standsfrom easyjet and many other firms relocating to europe with all the job lossesfrom lost or frozen contracts due to BREXIT circumstancefrom a massive shift in consumer sentiment...The real question is: will 36% of the electorate demand their rights in such a circumstance or will there be a nuanced and shifted position LONG before we get to your apocalypse?Because your apocalypse clearly does not affect just Victoria but it affects almost everything...Have you been writing similar posts on all the other boards you access ? Not just the boards where you want to see a share price decline but also the ones where you actually want to see prosperity...for your sons and nephews and their jobs etc?We shall see if you are right and we shall see if common sense prevails LONG before it gets to you actually being proved right.
