Hauler1
10 Aug 2016
Re: WDC... Thanks Bovem...if you get a chance to post a link or paste content? I cannot seem to find it...
Bovem99
10 Aug 2016
Re: WDC... V positive note from Sharewatch today. They expect the stock to "forge higher"
Hauler1
05 Aug 2016
WDC... Reference our discussion back in March...I think he has an acute sense of seller's remorse...he sold the shares much lower down and is willing the company to go back there so he can feel better. He said then he was not bitter but his actions seem to point otherwise...either that or an extreme case of caring for everyone else (??!?)
WDC1109
05 Aug 2016
Re: Outlook bright to building on a stro... Numberbit(t)er - Your constant scepticism, despite the evidence in the recent results, leads me to the conclusion that you have another agenda. Let's have it on the table so we can see where you are coming from or leave us all in peace and learn to add up.
Bovem99
04 Aug 2016
Re: Outlook bright to building on a stro... NB, I really don't follow the logic of your argument. The growth in the second half of last year was largely due to two major acquisitions half-way through the year. Obviously the company will show the benefit of a whole year of these businesses in 2017, which is why the market (and the company and analysts) project revenues of over £300m and pre-tax profits of over £27m.
numberbiter
03 Aug 2016
Re: Outlook bright to building on a stro... I still think Victoria is over-valued. The point is that the market has built in growth into the share price, but I don't believe there will be any further growth as growth has to date been simply bought. Note that increased revenue (unlikely to be repeated) resulted in increased distribution and administration costs in proportion. Cash was generated through lower inventory days and better debtor control and while this is admirable it cannot be repeated. I expect the share price will collapse when the next half year results are out. Until then we will have to wait and see.
WDC1109
03 Aug 2016
Investor's Chronicle changes its mind... Now even the Investor's Chronicle changes its mind about Victoria - from SELL to HOLD![link]
WDC1109
29 Jul 2016
Re: Outlook bright to building on a stro... This won't stop until it is north of £15. Even then it will be a high growth, quality business on a modest 12.5x consensus earnings. Another acquisition and it will pop over £20.
Hauler1
28 Jul 2016
Re: Outlook bright to building on a stro... Thanks WDC1109Quest acquired Aug 2015 and therefore has 240 calendar days of exposure (66%) in the recent resultsInterfloor acquired Sep 2015 and therefore has 209 calendar days of exposure (57%) in the recent resultsHistoric EBITDA: 3.3 mln & 10 mln respectively for these two (of which we clearly have 66% and 57% of these numbers presently baked in)my reckoning,H
WDC1109
28 Jul 2016
Re: Outlook bright to building on a stro... As usual, NB is talking nonsense. Apart from his completely randomly chosen so-called target prices that change like the wind, his 'analysis' is full of basic errors.For example, he compares 2016 post-exceptional results with 2014 and 2015 pre-exceptional numbers, has calculated inventory days and debtor days by using year-end stock and debtors (which includes all acquisitions) and divided by annual sales (which, because the acquisitions were made part way through the year, includes only six months of their sales etc). I could go on and on - just about every number is wrong.NB has zero credibility in my eyes and his consistent slagging of Victoria does make me question his agenda?!?If he really thinks VCP is rubbish, but he does not short, why does he hang around embarrassing himself?
Hauler1
28 Jul 2016
Re: Outlook bright to building on a stro... Hi NBBack in March you were worrying about the PE Ratio of Victoria:To quote you:"The thing is that I have been investing for several years and I recognise a 'bubble' when I see one. This share is currently well into 'bubble' territory as even on my cash basis EPS, the P/E ratio is 28. If we annualised the latest published earnings (double the half year to 3/10/15) then the current P/E ratio is 59. Clearly, only a company achieving growth of at least 30% year after year could justify such a P/E.I accept that it makes sense to review this again when the full year's results are published and I have no problem with others not agreeing with me."So let's review this - your metric of the PE ratio:your review...PE of 59 Actual PE 14You suggested reviewing the company on this basis...here we are...the share price is a little lower for the calc but the PE ratio is not in "bubble territory"...I note your analytical pivots have now moved to other factors with no mention of the inconvenience of PE...Also: the upgrade of your pricing expectation from 400p to 1000p is much appreciatedH
numberbiter
27 Jul 2016
Re: Outlook bright to building on a stro... I always review my forecast when new updated figures come in. I ignore brokers; we are still well apart on valuation. They say 1,750p,and I say below 1,000p and by 'below' I expect the price will go lower than this, but not for a least six months. The trigger, I forecast will be the next 6 months result which will not show sufficient progress.
CASTLEFORD TIGER
27 Jul 2016
Re: Outlook bright to building on a stro... to be fair you like the brokers have lifted your price from 700p to 1000ptiger
gloucesterman
27 Jul 2016
Re: Outlook bright to building on a stro... Good write up of the results yesterday from Paul Scott of Small Cap value report, he likes them so much he has bought some.[link]
numberbiter
27 Jul 2016
Re: Outlook bright to building on a stro... I don't short, but if I did I would be quids in! Check previous posts; I first recommended a strong sell at 1,505p. If I had shorted I would not be getting out now. It usually takes 'the market' at least two weeks to analyse results in detail, so while the price may drift up in the short term, I expect reality to kick in eventually.
