gronch
22 Jun 2017
Re: Back in Unfortunate that "autocorrect" can only correct misspelling!!
marshy_s
22 Jun 2017
Re: Back in Costed not coated effing autocorrect!!!
marshy_s
22 Jun 2017
Re: Back in Come off it. The reality is Corbyn could never achieve that! He's also 'offering' free tuition fees and skunk for students. Interestingly my manifesto included a tax rebate of £500k for every working adult in the UK. Luckily I didn't get in because I'd not coated it.
Hardboy
22 Jun 2017
Re: Back in MS: "See this as relatively steady ship in coming two years of potential madness"Even if there is a general election during that time & Labour get in with a majority on a manifesto which includes reprivatizing the Water Utilities?
Uncle Doug
21 Jun 2017
Re: Back in What do people do in hot weather? Use more water, buy sun cream, eat ice cream. No brainer.
Callun
21 Jun 2017
Re: Back in Understood.Out of interest I averaged what I consider to be the trading range and came up with 963. So for a long term hold, a reasonable entry point.Not what I would call a steady ship as the direction fo travel swings significantly from up to down quite markedly. Ok for trading though.Callun
gronch
20 Jun 2017
Re: Back in CallunThanks for that. My post was specifically directed at the post before mine, that got two positive votes for making no sense whatsoever.
Callun
20 Jun 2017
Re: Back in gronch,Typically one would expect the share price to fall by at least 25.92p on the ex-divi date, Thurs 22 June.Many traders rely on there being an overshoot and sell on the expected rise leading up to ex-divi date in anticipation of a fall of more than 25.92p, allowing them to buy back in and crystalise a capital gain exceeding the divi payout. It's taxed differently is the usual reason.Sadly UU has been falling leading into this divi making that trade less profitable. Even so, the same thinking applies.More to the point, what's caused the recent selloff?Callun
gronch
19 Jun 2017
Re: Back in Ex-divi on Thurs.Why wouldn't you expect share price to drop around 26p on that date?
marshy_s
16 Jun 2017
Re: Back in Me too. In at 963. See this as relatively steady ship in coming two years of potential madness. Plus final div in a couple of weeks
Uncle Doug
15 Jun 2017
Back in This is a Keeper for me. Got a bit toppy recently @1060 so I sold out ... but down now 10% from 3 weeks ago so I'm back in @960 and will continue to add tranches on any dips.
marshy_s
13 Jun 2017
Re: Regulatory Cycle So I decided not to be lazy. Answer 2019
marshy_s
13 Jun 2017
Regulatory Cycle I'm being lazy but can anyone tell him how far the water companies are through their regulatory cycle?
Happy Rabbit
26 May 2017
Re: UK Utilities comparative valuation Bill, I entirely agree with your analysis and thank you for sharing it.I now hold NG. and SSE from your list, as well as (special case) Drax of which I am a huge fan, and my views are well aired on the Drax board so I won't repeat them here.Having sold my UU. holding entirely I reinvested into LGEN (dividend and growth) and NXT (dividend and recovery), neither of which I have held before. I'm bound to get back in to UU. at some future stage as it is well run, has an uncomplicated business plan and has lots of water! If bond yields ever rise again, then UU. will become attractive, I'm sure.I looked at Pennon and could never convince myself that the investment in "burning waste to make electricity" was going to make enough money to justify the spend. I'm not sure about the open grate burning technology either, and am pretty sure that they will need to abate the flue gases at some stage. We shall see. The water side of the business was compelling though.Regards,
Bill1703
26 May 2017
UK Utilities comparative valuation Following the full set of FY results and a decent run for the sector, see below for a quick snapshot of the valuation picture (prices as at earlier this morning):---------- ------- NG PNN SSE SVT UUYield (act) 4.1% 3.8% 5.9% 3.3% 3.7%Yield (fwd) 4.2% 4.1% 6.1% 3.6% 3.8%Div cover 1.6x 1.3x 1.4x 1.5x 1.2xP/E (act) 15.0x 19.9x 12.2x 19.9x 22.6xEV/EBITDA 11.2x 13.6x 9.2x 13.4x 13.8xND/EBITDA 4.8x 5.6x 3.2x 6.6x 6.6xValuations look pretty full across the board in absolute terms, suggesting limited scope for further SP upside for the moment... though the stocks will doubtless do well enough in relative terms on any market setback(s). In relative terms, not much in it of course, but leaving aside SSE as a somewhat different animal (with a much higher proportion of its business in competitive - and more politically sensitive - markets), I would say NG screens as the most "attractive" at the moment, with UU the least compelling.SVT and PNN offer faster dividend growth currently, but reflected in lower yields (particularly SVT), while NG offers somewhat better dividend cover comfort. And NG is trading on a decent discount to the (eye-watering) multiples of the water stocks on both earnings and EBITDA.On balance sheet metrics, it's all relative of course, with sky-high leverage typical to the group... but NG is in a notably stronger position than the water comparators (particularly UU and SVT, up at 6.6x net debt to EBITDA). Such debt levels are clearly not a major concern near-term given current interest rates and the availability of cheap long term finance - but as (if?) and when bond yields gradually 'normalise' I can see this becoming much more of a differentiating issue, and possibly one of increasing and significant market concern. On a modest yield, paltry current divi growth and lowest cover level, UU looks the most exposed currently - particularly when you throw in the highest P/E and EV/EBITDA ratings in the sector and the sector-high leverage level.
