Unilever Live Discussion

J_Westlock 15 Oct 2018

Going Dutch Gamesinvestor1: who does one vote for in the event that democracy dies If democracy died then you wouldn’t be voting…

frog_in_a_tree 15 Oct 2018

Going Dutch Games, given that current opinion polling shows a clear lead of around 6% for Remain, it seems far more likely that Brexit will damage Tory support and that the harder the Brexit the more damaged it will be. The Tories are in hock to it predominently Brexit supporting English elderly membership. A diminishing resource I think. If Brexit goes ahead and damages our economy then the Tories will get all the blame and will be unelectable for a long time. Can I suggest that you elect JRM and finish the party for good? Cheers Frog in a tree

Gamesinvestor1 15 Oct 2018

Going Dutch Point to add to the last rant – it certainly looks like the Tory party is finished for generations and May has decided she’s prepared to sacrifice her beloved party to make sure the UK is bound to the EU. Very strange it all is. Games - who does one vote for in the event that democracy dies, perhaps millions won’t bother in the future and just watch Bake-Off or Strictly?

Gamesinvestor1 15 Oct 2018

Going Dutch NewBill1703: albeit one which defers some of the key controversial points until some later date. Lol – You mean not Brexit then Bill. It’s all been prearranged a long time ago, from the day May was appointed PM and from the day she issued the clever but at the same time inane statement “Brexit means Brexit” - an utterance specifically designed to mean nothing but reassure the masses that she is batting for the man in the street. All the while she has plotted and schemed to engineer remain, which at this point will be the weakest political and economic outlook this country will have experienced in it’s very long history. The damage will be immense and the opportunity lost will be bigger than immense. Heh ho, there is no knowing what political games are played. Looks like the stock market is going to hxll in a dustcart anyhow and just about everything is being sold down the river. I’m 30% in cash and wondering if 70% would have been closer to desirable lol ! Even El Tel’s stalwarts are taking a beating - IHG; ITRK; PM; etc Games - Not a man of the street, but a man for the street maybe?

NewBill1703 14 Oct 2018

Going Dutch Uncle_Doug: ULVR going Dutch was announced in March and then the rise from 37xx to 44xx followed that announcement. This current 40xx is IMO just a reversion to mean. I doubt any withdrawal from the FTSE indices would affect the SP either way. Uncle D - yes and yes! Nothing to see here, really… Games is right insofar as we wouldn’t have known for certain until ULVR actually exited the index, but markets - as in, traders, active fund managers (still comfortably outweighing trackers, for all the hype), the short-term money (hedge funds etc) - look ahead, and would be positioning themselves accordingly for an event well known in advance. You simply don’t see sudden significant moves when it’s something everyone’s been able to anticipate well in advance. And now we will never know, of course! Gamesinvestor1: … I’m out at 4300 ish and won’t be back in for a while. At least until the management is changed – I feel the same way about Diageo. Maybe emotional, but my buy in for DGE is closer to 2000 and Unilever closer to 35XX Yes, Games, pretty reasonable “fair value” levels IMHO too, as we have discussed before. Though I would probably need some kind of discount to those levels to actually buy in… and not so sure I won’t get it, possibly sooner than later. This is probably where I diverge with Uncle D… I think we will get some kind of Brexit settlement soon enough, albeit one which defers some of the key controversial points until some later date. But that in itself may be enough to see GBP unwind at least some of its persistent oversold position - most likely 1.35-plus, quite possibly 1.40-plus. And in that event, every reason to suspect that ULVR, DGE, RB et all will also “unwind”, at least part of the way back to pre-referendum levels, given the still-elevated status of both valuations (ie. P/E ratings) and actual/forecast EPS figures (boosted as they are by the benefit of weak GBP).

Gamesinvestor1 11 Oct 2018

Going Dutch Brave man there Doug – I’m out at 4300 ish and won’t be back in for a while. At least until the management is changed – I feel the same way about Diageo. Maybe emotional, but my buy in for DGE is closer to 2000 and Unilever closer to 35XX Games

Uncle_Doug 11 Oct 2018

Going Dutch Call me crazy but just bought a bunch @3999. More shenanigans to come with Brexit going right up to the wire but all will come good in the end.

Gamesinvestor1 09 Oct 2018

Poleaxed Oh Dear, It’s not been a good week for old PolyRoly has it? “”""“Unilever faces a backlash over fat cat pay just days after it was forced to abandon plans to axe its British headquarters. The consumer goods group, whose brands include Marmite, Domestos and PG Tips, handed £10million to chief executive Paul Polman last year. MPs on the business select committee have summoned executives to Parliament to explain its pay policy amid mounting concerns over boardroom excess “””" Games

Uncle_Doug 07 Oct 2018

Going Dutch Can’t be bothered checking if I got it right but I have a note here that ULVR going Dutch was announced in March and then the rise from 37xx to 44xx followed that announcement. This current 40xx is IMO just a reversion to mean. I doubt any withdrawal from the FTSE indices would affect the SP either way.

Gamesinvestor1 07 Oct 2018

Going Dutch ““HE et al - I think the distinctly muted, and damp, SP reaction to the climb-down proves that the actual risk of passives etc selling out was way over-stated, as per my earlier arguments.”” Bill if only this were true m8. The share price has already fallen from 44XX to 40XX approx 10%. But the bigger fall would only have happened if the Unilever management team (a flawed bunch in my view) had been successful in taking Unilever to The netherlands. That would have possibly had another 10% drop (who knows), but even then the real fall would have only taken place after the effective delisting of Unilever from the FTSE100 and the actual sales took place. RB is possbly cheap right now, but time will tell. Games

NewBill1703 06 Oct 2018

Going Dutch Hydrogen_Economy: Would seem like a positive for the stock, removing a serious concern of passives and others selling off, but this nonsense leaves the board holed below the waterline… HE et al - I think the distinctly muted, and damp, SP reaction to the climb-down proves that the actual risk of passives etc selling out was way over-stated, as per my earlier arguments. Otherwise the reaction would surely have been much more dramatic, and in a positive direction? Markets - and traders - always look ahead, after all. Much more significant here were the softer symbolic/sovereignty concerns, “UK plc” and all that, combined with the fact that many shareholders, big and small, have been awaiting their chance to stick it to Polman, ever since his high-handed reaction to the Kraft approach. I know for a fact that quite a few of those high-profile funds, which publicly declared they would vote against the move, would NOT have been forced sellers if ULVR had exited the FTSE100 index. And doubtless a few of them (at least) were also in the “stick it to Polman” camp. Gamesinvestor1: … the damage is done, certainly for the management team who have badly misjudged this move. Seems to be approaching 4000 at the moment… Getting out at 42XX seems like a reasonable punt to date. Yes Games, I doubt you will have much cause to regret your exit up at £42-odd, for the foreseeable anyway. Though putting it into RB may prove to be “frying pan into fire”… in the likely event of some kind of Brexit “deal” in the coming weeks and the probable return to GBP:USD 1.40 or so, there’s no reason why the likes of ULVR, RB and DGE (all on very similar - and similarly FX-inflated - ratings) would not retrace back to much nearer their pre-referendum levels? Who knows, there may now be another bid for ULVR somewhere down the line… but just as likely it will come with the SP (much?) nearer £30 than £40.

Gamesinvestor1 05 Oct 2018

Going Dutch J - You are probably right, I think they would be a lot more supportive, given this management team has blotted it’s own copy book. Games

J_Westlock 05 Oct 2018

Going Dutch Great… more chance of a future bid… and this time key investors might be far more supportive.

Gamesinvestor1 05 Oct 2018

Going Dutch HE I think you are right, the damage is done, certainly for the management team who have badly misjudged this move. Seems to be approaching 4000 at the moment. Getting out at 42XX seems like a reasonable punt to date. Games

Hydrogen_Economy 05 Oct 2018

Going Dutch Not surprising Unilever has folded given the number of major investors declaring agin it. Would seem like a positive for the stock, removing a serious concern of passives and others selling off, but this nonsense leaves the board holed below the waterline, I think it will take more than a Dutch boy’s finger to plug that. H2