Unilever Live Discussion

newtonukequities 04 Feb 2019

Results better to buy a great company at a fair price, someone with a bob or two once said. And as it was his company who tried to buy ULVR in 2017 he should know GLA

In_the_dark_yet_again 04 Feb 2019

Results A good book I hope, surely not the remote control for a dreadful film that even Kate Winslet can’t save. Regards, ITDYA

Gamesinvestor1 04 Feb 2019

Results nice one ITDYA – perhaps it’s given us all that sinking feeling. Games - leans over for a copy of the Titanic !!

In_the_dark_yet_again 04 Feb 2019

Results I don’t remember LKH ever saying “never get off the boat” unless it was in the old, tried and very well trusted context of “unless you are stepping UP into a life-raft”… as long as it’s still floating, by hook, crook or miracle, don’t get off. Yes, the life-raft should be tied on with slipknot! Regards, ITDYA

Gamesinvestor1 04 Feb 2019

Results Good day today, my KETL company is boiling up 4.52%, Sage is counting up 2.74%, Alliance Pharma is dosed up 4.69% and Unilever is heading north of Port Sunlight at 1.22% coupled with a third tranche bought today of National Grid at the days lows - electrifying. I’d better go for a lie down, this is exhausting lol !! Games

Gamesinvestor1 04 Feb 2019

Results marktime, you might well be right on the share price going back to 38. It’s back at 4120 at the moment though. Also I doubt that LK would say that you should sell a good company in favour of something that looks on a P/E basis lower priced and better value. Sometimes these two statements are a contradition in terms - we shall see of course. Unilever and Shell are LK’s largest holdings followed by National Grid. He’s always said on here that “Unilever would be the last share he would ever sell”, and as a sailing bod, “never get off the boat”. Non of that matters of course, it’s only opinion and all our collective opinions on here count for less than a mug of warm tea (I refrain from the cruder version). It’s like Nasim Taleb indicated in his book - we are all fooled by randomness. Games – Enough of my philisophical nonsense already !!

marktime1231 04 Feb 2019

Results ULVR is not one of my stocks, so I don’t know what I am talking about. But on the face of it looks expensive over 4000p even if the dividend is progressing, if only based on the cautious outlook remarks from the exec. The odd 1% or 2% does not butter my parnsips. The business is hugely complex across brands, markets, currencies, geographies … more variables than my brain can cope with, even before you throw in strategy, relocation and Brexit, activist investor intentions, merger or divestment propsects … So I agree with Bill, why not wait until the sp looks obviously cheap on simple metrics, we are as likely to see £38 again as £45? Or as Bill also says and I am sure as LKH would say (none of my biznay) why not pick something obviously better value if you are looking to invest, whether for yield or growth? What I do like very much is people invoking the spirit of LKH and writing what he would have said … what a legend, would rather hear it direct too.

Gamesinvestor1 04 Feb 2019

Results In_the_dark_yet_again: still far too many more compelling opportunities elsewhere! Well I’m compelled by my 4% in a week – It’s not cheap I know but it’s no where near as silly pricewise as when the bid was hanging over it. It’s down to Polman that we have this decent retracement - I’m only back in a 3rd of what I sold mind, so it an’t going to make my wad sing too loudly even if it rises. But as LK would say as a nautical chappy - “every little helps as the sailor … in the sea” Games

In_the_dark_yet_again 04 Feb 2019

Results @NewBill1703, NewBill1703: still far too many more compelling opportunities elsewhere! Go on, enlighten me. Please. LKH used to come up with the odd gem (and a few not so) but he’s no longer (allowed to?) posting - much to the detriment of these boards! I almost certainly won’t always agree but all clear(?) thought is always welcome. My horizons are often too narrow. Regards, ITDYA, always open to new ideas even if sometimes too long in the tooth to take advantage.

newtonukequities 03 Feb 2019

Results I like “dull results” with “nothing to get excited about”. ULVR just keeps bringing in the cash which pays for the dividends which keep compounding up. Good idea to buy on the dips to get a better yield Good luck all

NewBill1703 02 Feb 2019

Results In_the_dark_yet_again: My thinking FWLIW… even at 5850 RB is still cheap. ULVR is fine around £40. DGE way too expensive. ITDYA et al - not a bad summary, not too far from where I am. Sure, the ULVR results are perfectly solid, as you’d expect - though nothing amazing. Organic growth has is relatively subdued, and looks set to stay so. And FCF and ROIC were both down YoY, which gives pause for thought… though both are still relatively healthy, of course. Actual P/E now 19.7x on these figures - falls to 18.5x on 2019E forecasts, in line with the long-term mean so suggests a SP at / close to “fair value”. But you to conclude these forecasts are under threat from both the slowing underlying growth and (in particular) further FX risk. So £40 still a tad pricey for me, though the valuation gap has narrowed - maybe around £38 “fair value” for me now? DGE definitely expensive, it has held on to the sort of exposed rating (ie. 22-23x P/E or so) which both ULVR and RB were showing not so long ago but have now given up. RB doesn’t look too bad at all on valuation, I agree - but it has challenges aplenty, both external and of its own making, for which the departing CEO has now carried the can. So I wouldn’t be buying any of them at current levels… still far too many more compelling opportunities elsewhere!

Gamesinvestor1 31 Jan 2019

Results No need for apology on dividends, it’s when a company borrows to pay em that you need to apologise - that’s not the case for the Dove/Dollar Shave outfit. Games

Uncle_Doug 31 Jan 2019

Results ULVR not on my radar at this SP. Further lows come I reckon. RB and DGE are better bets IMO. Although RB gone from 56 to 59 in a week so not quite the bargain that it was.

In_the_dark_yet_again 31 Jan 2019

Results LSE:ULVR @Gamesinvestor1 Pretty dull set of results IMO. Nothing dreadful but nothing much to get excited about. Depending upon whether or not you believe official inflation numbers it’s not much better than just inflation. Your extract is pretty much the highlights. One thing I do like, it’s buried in the detail, is that the profit is all cash, great chunks of cash, something I always like in a mature business, plenty to support a progressive dividend policy. Overall though, not too surprised about the sell-off but £40 sounds reasonable. Me? I’m going to sit tight but thinking that, if I did have new money, I’d be chucking it at RB at this moment rather than ULVR (I did last week!) Regards, ITDYA, sorry if I seem a bit obsessed about dividends (not just here but with many other shares I have) but the old rule was live off the dividends and let the SP do your index-linking plus a touch… when it works it’s getting rich(?) slowly, the long game.

Gamesinvestor1 31 Jan 2019

Results Full year highlights • Underlying sales growth excluding spreads was 3.1% with 2.1% volume and 1.0% price • Price growth in Argentina is excluded from underlying sales growth from July due to hyperinflationary status. Reported growth would otherwise have been 3.4% (3.6% excluding spreads) • Underlying operating margin increased 90bps with 50bps from gross margin • Underlying EPS increased 5.2%; constant underlying EPS was up 12.8% • Turnover was impacted by an adverse currency impact of 6.7% and the disposal of spreads • Operating margin up 810bps and diluted EPS up by 62%, driven by a €4.3 billion profit on the disposal of spreads 8% hike in the dividend - the results look OK albeit guidance on outlook is for the lower end. Having sold at 4300, I’m starting to buy back - first tranche today. Games