Gamesinvestor1
26 Apr 2019
Trading Statement ITDYA, let’s hope you are right, because I have loaded up on RB and sold Unilever at 43XX The growth rate at Unilever has all but collapsed if you look at the volumes. That doesn’t come out in the report, it’s kind of disguised. One of the reasons Terry Smith dumped Procter & Gamble some years back was exactly this issue, it started as disguised numbers and constant price increases, until the volumes really dropped and the share price got hammered. This will happen to Unilever, I’m thinking. Games
In_the_dark_yet_again
25 Apr 2019
Trading Statement LSE:ULVR @Gamesinvestor1 Gamesinvestor1: Don’t get me wrong, these are all OK results, but there is a lot of dressing up here. Ain’t that the truth… but then again, rock solid boring. Might sound strange but I think a lot of people like ‘rock solid boring 3%’ ULVR! Sorry for the very late response just it’s hard to find decent, clean comment on a share amongst the Brexit noise. Regards, ITDYA, still thinking that the real value today is RB not ULVR, despite the huge risk of the Invidior hangover
Gamesinvestor1
18 Apr 2019
Trading Statement [link] As usual, everything is “underlying†so it’s not always what it seems. One point is the biggest component of the “underlying†growth was from price increases, does this have a finite element to it? - “underlying†volume growth was just 1.2%" Excluded from this growth was much Venezuela and Argentina - OK if you want to ignore the reality I suppose. In Latin America volume declined by 4% In developed markets the “underlying†volumes only grew by only 0.3%, so on an inflationary basis it must have gone backwards. It’s all about the emerging markets innit? and here the 5% growth was largely 3.2% of it, due to price increases. Don’t get me wrong, these are all OK results, but there is a lot of dressing up here. Much more than the 2+% jump in the share price warrants I’m guessing. Games
Uncle_Doug
21 Mar 2019
Results Back out. Wow that was quick. Settled for 4340. I’ll be back in again sub 4000.
NewBill1703
03 Mar 2019
Can't time markets Gamesinvestor1: Will I get a 3rd bite at the cherry… the short term sentiment is for £ to strengthen and the big boys share prices to head south, given there are also no further bid premiums on offer after the stark realisation, illustrated by Kraft Heinz, that brands are not entirely the economic panacea they were dreamed to be… Are we heading for £30? I think you will get that third bite, Games… if patient, most likely a fourth and fifth, too! Not sure we will see £30 - but I still think you’ll get a bite at /around £35. And if we do, for all the reasons you highlight, people hopefully won’t be surprised - not if they’ve been reading these pages these past few years!
Uncle_Doug
28 Feb 2019
Results Willing to risk it for a biscuit. Back in @3980. 4250 will do for a quick scalp
Uncle_Doug
27 Feb 2019
Unilever Boost - hot weather Must be selling lots of ice cream and Vaseline these days!
Gamesinvestor1
27 Feb 2019
Can't time markets Is the often bandied statement by fund managers. I guess with mega holdings it’s a statement the fund managers have to hang onto. My rather modest holding in Unilever was, however, seemingly timed nicely, in and out twice at 38XX - out at 42XX. Will I get a 3rd bite at the cherry. I suppose now that the country has decided to abandon democracy, the short term sentiment is for £ to strengthen and the big boys share prices to head south, given there are also no further bid premiums on offer after the stark realisation, illustrated by Kraft Heinz, that brands are not entirely the economic panacea they were dreamed to be. Are we heading for £30? Games
Gamesinvestor1
15 Feb 2019
Results sold just before the close. 6.7% gain plus a dividend - in 2 weeks. I love being a buy and hold guy. Games – Buy - hold - Bye Bye - Sell
Gamesinvestor1
15 Feb 2019
Results good move
Uncle_Doug
15 Feb 2019
Results Sold ULVR @4280. Happy with taking some risk out the game. I’ll be back sub @4000.
newtonukequities
10 Feb 2019
Results Totally agree newbill. If the fundamentals of the company remian good then just wait for a day when Mr. Market is in a bad mood and jump in I enjoyed it when ULVR suggected closing the UK head office. This would not effect the sales of Magnum icecreams in Europe or Dove soap in Africa but the SP fell because of FTSE100 status. GLA
NewBill1703
09 Feb 2019
Unilever share price Gamesinvestor1: Well who’d have thunk it eh? … Just when 38XX seemed on the cards, up pops 4225… Sticking to my unwavering strategy of buy and hold, maybe it’s time to sell again, no? All you need to do is plot the ULVR SP against GBP… the latest pop in ULVR reflecting the latest dip in GBP/USD. And then ask yourself - are we more likely to stay below 1.30 USD for the long-term, or is some kind of mean-reversion to 1.40 (give or take) more likely. There’s your answer, right there…
NewBill1703
09 Feb 2019
Results newtonukequities: better to buy a great company at a fair price, someone with a bob or two once said. And as it was his company who tried to buy ULVR in 2017 he should know Yes, and these are of course wise words from Uncle Warren… yet there are plenty of other sage adages which spring to mind when thinking of ULVR. “Good companies make bad stocksâ€â€¦ and “the more certain a prospect is, the less likely it is to be profitable†(these may have been Jim Rogers, or Warren’s mentor Ben Graham - hard to say, they all steal/stole each other’s quotes with liberal frequency). Sure, Unilever is a very good company (whether “great†or not is up for debate) - but we know that, don’t we? Certainly, the market does… and never forget, the corporate graveyard is littered with once very good (indeed, “greatâ€) companies - past performance is no guarantee… etc, etc. Even bowing to the wisdom of Uncle W and accepting the Unilever is a “great†company, it still leaves the question of what is a “fair priceâ€. The £40 he offered for it? Notwithstanding reports he would’ve been prepared to pay quite a bit more… And of course, we cannot buy the company, merely the stock - and though closely related, these are (always) two distinct entities. I always come back to the rule of thumb - you should look to buy stocks when both valuation and expectations are low, and sell them when the reverse is true. I concede the equation is not quite a clear cut as it was when ULVR was riding high around £45, but I still baulk about buying a stock trading at least at its long-term mean rating (ie. on P/E) when the risks to the “E†seem skewed to the downside (due to both/either of slowing organic growth and, in particular, FX considerations, at least for a GBP investor). People seem to forget you could buy in at £30/31 just ahead of the Brexit referendum, still not THAT long ago … I suspect it’s not one to Sell too aggressively just at the moment, but I will only get interested the other side of £38.
Gamesinvestor1
05 Feb 2019
Unilever share price Well who’d have thunk it eh? Just when 38XX seemed on the cards, up pops 4225 Sticking to my unwavering strategy of buy and hold, maybe it’s time to sell again, no? Games
