Flying Legend
05 Aug 2016
Re: Amazing! - Cash - Dividend Cover I cannot get to grips with the idea that TW shares are in any way overpriced. They seem a real bargain to me and I have increased my holding substantially since the hiccup after the Brexit vote. The future has never been brighter for house building than it is at the moment. With the shortage of houses the favourable position is going to remain for a long while to come.. It seems to me that the shares are excellent value. More so than when I sold them for over £5 a share some 10 years ago. Maybe they will go back to that .I think they just might.
psmith64
04 Aug 2016
Re: Amazing! - Cash - Dividend Cover Gameinvestor......the other worrying thing is that the BOE has very little left in the war chest.With the cost of living going up a racing certainty due to the currency crisis and with employment looking more uncertain borrowing can be as cheap as 0% but it still has to be repaid and with the uncertainty about at the moment the last thing people are going to commit to is a house purchase which today the BOE has indicated is likely to decline in value over the next 12 months and more likely beyond because a correction was certainly due at some stage and Brexit has probably advanced that by 24 months.Brave to buy at todays SP IMHO unless you don't need access to the cash over the next 5 years.I am still confident as time goes on and the disaster of Brexit unfolds we could see buying opportunites here circa 100p or below and as soon as inside the next 6 months.Speaking to a Howdens rep today ( joinery and kitchen suppliers ) they have had a raft of orders put on hold as developers suspend constructuon while sales are not as forthcoming which makes logical sense for cash flow reasons.These instances were not related to TW sites but rest assured they will be slowing things down to avoid the situation that happened in the financial crisis.Anyone who thinks Brexit is not going to seriously affect the housing market substantially over the next couple of years is simply burying their head in the sand.The effect is going to be far worse than any other crisis because frankly this is a situation that has never happened before. Lets not lose sight of the fact it has the ability to have the financial consequences of Scottish independence to.Happy to be on the side lines waiting for a better opportunity to get back in.
Hardcore Uproar
03 Aug 2016
Re: Amazing! - Cash - Dividend Cover "Not to be a doomster or anything here, but does everyone here believe that QE and dangerously low interest rates won't ever stoke massive inflation? I'm not entirely sure, and normally it doesn't come with a warning."This is the reason & only reason some of us love bullion, absolutely reckless central bank monetary policy. I think the UK would be better off in the €, Ambrose in column today gives an astounding reason why the UK should join the €, namely huge reliance on energy & the current account deficit. Gold over the GBP will be amazing over the next 10 years.All this QE is designed to do is help reckless bankrupt governments but it cannot go on for ever. Remember in 08 we had subprime & then by the following year it had spread to the high end of the market, since the end of 2014 the opposite looks to be taking effect. A currency crisis is on the cards but its calling the first which is tricky. It could be the Yen or GBP or even the unthinkable U.S$.
gamesinvestor
03 Aug 2016
Re: Amazing! - Cash - Dividend Cover "because regardless of Brexit it was evident that construction was slowing down"Interesting comment, considering interest rates are on the floor. The housing market and construction industry have been operating in a paradise for the last 9 years given that interest rates have been held below inflation for that time.This is the first time this has happened for 300 years and it's allowed a huge free flow of credit, assisted by Mr Govmint with help-to-buy, funding for lending and an ever growing crutch called "housing benefit".Not to be a doomster or anything here, but does everyone here believe that QE and dangerously low interest rates won't ever stoke massive inflation? I'm not entirely sure, and normally it doesn't come with a warning.One thing that is worth bearing in mind is TW's exposure here. Whilst it's profits on paper have been growing handsomely with such high property prices, it's not entirely reflected in cash which is a worry.The operating cash flow last year was £406M yet with interest (finance) costs levelled at £308M -- the net cash growth was modest -- so despite a reported £631M operating profit, there's a big gap here.Turn down the revenue by 10% and you would be cash flow negative perhaps?With house prices at some 8X salary (100 year average at 3.5X) it seems like a false situation. The dividend cover is down to 1.5X against profits but uncovered by cash!Games -- booming today, but will it change quite rapidly with sentiment?
psmith64
01 Aug 2016
Re: Amazing! Lets resume thoughts in 6 months time when the effects of Brexit become more apparent.That is when I will review jumping back in.Happy with my 80% pre Brexit profits and 20% post Brexit profit with TW.I have to be a little more cautious nowadays as I am too close to retirement.
Marl3425
27 Jun 2016
taliking to some guys in the industry they believe that the markets are concerned that uncertainty will make people hesitate in major purchases. Also a slow down in immigration will slow demand for property. Anyway looking very ugly.
dotlink
17 Feb 2016
don't believe what Deutsche target price of 233p because they will just short it, i say target price between 190-200p
bamservice
29 Sep 2015
I think today's decline in house building share could be due wolseley's forecast for reduced growth for the next year
