middler2
21 Sep 2016
Re: rns x2 Agreed. Progress on so many fronts!
Nige the snake
21 Sep 2016
rns x2 looking at the 2 fold newsTTR should go ballistic today with contract news and Final results might buy If its not marked up by 30-40%
jdhm
07 Sep 2016
Re: Updated chart Thanks.
penhome
07 Sep 2016
Re: Updated chart It's investing.comOne of the main charting sitesI'm not aware of any issues
jdhm
06 Sep 2016
Re: Updated chart McAfee don't trust the site you have linked to. Is it safe?
penhome
06 Sep 2016
Updated chart There's some momentum building. Comments are on this daily chart:[link]
middler2
27 Jun 2016
Big drop Is this due to the Italian exposure? If so, it seems grossly overdone, as Italy is such a small portion of overall.
psyche100
12 Jun 2016
Re: Forecast revenue Not sure where you're getting 20 from. Stockopedia gives a 12 month rolling forecast PER of 12.My DCF is a purely mechanical calculation. For this company there's been a much better correlation between revenue and FCF than FCF and other measures for which forecasts are available. On average over the last 5 years revenue has been 10X FCF (albeit with a lot of variation in the ratio from one year to another). Working on current FCF of £6.7m (average of last, current and my forecast for next year), forecast growth in FCF of 27% over the next 4 years (that's an extrapolation from the past) and 13.5% over the 4 years after that (allowing for slowing growth as the company matures), a long term growth rate of 3% and a required return of 14% for the risk (Stockopedia's suggested rate for TTR) the calculation gives a DCF value of 204.5. The latest (13/5/16) Numis target according to Hargreaves Lansdown is 200.
Johandesilva
10 Jun 2016
Re: Forecast revenue "On my calculations revenue of £83m would imply FCF of £8.3m."---That's a P/E close to 20. For a betting company with all the regulation risk?
middler2
01 Jun 2016
Kambi RNS Came across this:Malta 1 June, 2016Kambi Group plc: 32Red plc agrees long-term contract extensionKambi Group is pleased to announce a further extension to its long-term contract with operator 32Red. In April 2014, 32Red signed an agreement with Kambi to deliver its Sportsbook services. posted strong buy as I believe market has not understood the potential of this company.
psyche100
21 May 2016
Forecast revenue The figures for forecast revenue in my last post have remained unchanged since the trading update.I agree with Dave 2608's post on advfn: [link] anyone know if Numis have issued revised guidance on forecast revenue?On my calculations revenue of £83m would imply FCF of £8.3m.I see that Numis have maintained their price target of 200 which is maybe not too wide of the mark.
Johandesilva
12 May 2016
Re: Price drop reason Still early days but a good shout. I would have expect a profit of £15 for betting company worth £100m+
psyche100
11 May 2016
Re: Price drop reason I'm a holder and take a different view from the last two posts.POCT was introduced on 1/12/14 so affected the 2014 results only to the tune of £0.4m in 2014 but £4.8m in 2015. If POCT is disregarded, cost of sales as a proportion of revenues held steady at 64%. The fall in post POCT profit before tax was entirely foreseeable before the recent results announcement.I disagree that the price is 'astronomical'. On a 12 month forecast rolling basis it trades on a PER of only 8.4, a PEG of 0.15 and it yields 3%.FCF has grown from £0.73m in 2010 to 6.48m in 2015. There is a strong correlation between TTR's revenue and FCF. Revenue is forecast to grow to £65m in 2016 and £79m in 2017. If the correlation holds, this implies FCF of £6.5m and £7.9m respectively. My 'mechanical' DCF calculation gives an estimated value of 148p.Since reading Aronson's 'Evidence based TA' I've become very sceptical of chart patterns. However I've found an interesting paper on the H&S pattern:[link] finds that H&S gives good risk adjusted returns but 'provide no support for the more extreme claims of some technical analysts...that trades based on the occurrence of HS patterns alone are consistently profitable.' The paper suggests that the pattern may 'work' as it spots stocks with flagging momentum. Despite TTR's disappointing recent weakness, momentum remains very strong on a longer term basis.
Johandesilva
10 May 2016
Re: Price drop reason I would keen to follow technicals and buy in here towards the end of the year.With a cash balance of £10.3m I see no way on earth how the share price is so astronomically high, in fact this is dream stock to short. I don't short myself but I understand there is scope to generate better profits (pehaps £5-10m) given the revenue.
penhome
18 Apr 2016
Price drop reason I'm not a holder, but had a quick look at this.I think the reason for the price drop is the 2015 results published on 10th March.Turnover up to £48m from £32m in 2014.BUT, cost of sales up to £35m from £21m in 2014and profit before tax DOWN to £1m from £3.4m in 2014.So turnover up and profit down.From a technical point of view, TTR entered a downtrend in early March as a result of these numbers.[link] my analysis, it's just broken down below the neckline of a Head and Shoulders top reversal pattern. It might pop back to the neckline but I think the next main move will be down to around 92-93p.The sell signal for me would have been the 8ema crossing below the 34ema in late March at around 150p. Both these MAs are now declining. My chart won't give a buy signal for this until the 8ema crosses back above the 34ema.Look at the size of the selling volume over the last two sessions. This sort of volume level is seen as confirming the neckline break and comes after weak volume during the formation of the right shoulder. This is just my own opinion and could always be wrong, but this seems to me to be a classic example of a company chasing turnover and ignoring profit.£48m turnover and £1m profit.This is why I think that price is going down.
