Nice to Michu
16 Feb 2018
I expect TRIN is on Maclays bucketlist ( Malcay as in Malcom Graham Wood and bucket list as in his top 15 or so picks for the year..2018 is due out imminently)And that might give the s/p a one off pick me up, hopefully... at least it will put on the radar of a wider audience.. it's still a very low profile share generally imho...I like this share a lot and have been in it for almost a year now.. i'm doing nicely but I think this can go a lot higher than 17p .. eg it briefly went to 20p not too long ago in a meaningfully lower poo environment... Good luck to all fellow holders here and nice to see this bulletin board is waking up somewhat ( i was posting to myself here for a good while last year )
Lady Jennifer
05 Feb 2018
Re: Debt? Long Term Investment Plan LTIPSome significant incentives to clearing debts early......Currently, Trinity has issued 25.415998m shares (c9% share capital) to employees under the LTIP plan. The performance targets are;•70% of the award will vest if the 3 month VWAP at the testing date is 35p/share or more. If it is between 4.98p and 35p, this part of the award will vest on a pro-rated straight line basis.•20% of the award will vest on repayment of the amount due to the BIR.•10% of the award will vest if all of the CLNs are redeemed before the second anniversary of their issue.
Lady Jennifer
05 Feb 2018
News.... 05/02/2018 7
0amUK Regulatory (RNS & others)Trinity (LSE:TRIN)Intraday Stock ChartToday : Monday 5 February 2018Click Here for more Trinity Charts.TIDMTRINRNS Number : 8500DTrinity Exploration & Production05 February 2018Dissemination of a Regulatory Announcement that contains inside information according to REGULATION (EU) No 596/2014 (MAR).Trinity Exploration & Production plc("Trinity" or "the Group" or "the Company"
Q4 2017 Operational UpdateIncreasing levels of profitable productionTrinity, the independent E&P company focused on Trinidad and Tobago, today provides an update on its operations for the three month period ended 31 December 2017.During the period, Trinity continued to build on the momentum achieved during the first three quarters by delivering yet further growth in profitable production and strengthening of the balance sheet.Q4 Operational Highlights-- 11% quarter on quarter increase in Group average production volumes to 2,777 bopd for the three-month period (Q4) ended 31 December 2017 (Q3 2017: 2,506 bopd)-- Increase in production was achieved due to the continued positive results on the low-cost high return work programme of recompletions ("RCPs", workovers, reactivations and swabbing-- A total of 20 RCPs (Q3: 12) and 25 workovers (Q3: 27) were completed during the period, with swabbing operations executed across all land assets-- Having subcontracted a third rig to support the increased activity set there was a 19% increase in rig man-hours worked from 1,741 hours to 2,067 hours-- During December 2017, production exceeded 3,000 bopd for over 14 days as a result of several wells flowing naturally post recompletion, underlining the quality of the RCP inventory-- These wells have now returned to normal (planned) production rates-- Whilst a sustained production rate above 3,000 bopd is not expected until later in 2018 it evidences the clear upward trajectory being delivered from the planned work programmeStrong Balance Sheet-- Cash balance of US$11.7 million as at 31 December 2017-- Liabilities outstanding to the Board of Inland Revenue ("BIR" and Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries ("MEEI" continue to reduce faster than anticipated by the ratified payment planManagement is continuing to examine a range of options regarding the sale of the West coast assets. In the interim, the assets continue to generate positive cash flow.The Company will announce a summary financial review of 2017 including unaudited numbers for the full year in early March. This will provide further detail on production, margins, operating breakeven, costs and profitability - highlighting the growing value of the Company's assets and continued strong financial performance in an environment of improving oil prices.OutlookProfitable production has continued since the year end with the Company commencing its 2018 work programme. As previously announced, this will include the initiation of new drilling operations during the current quarter, with a view to achieving its near term production target of 3,000 bopd during 2018 and achieving a more material step change in production in the medium term.Bruce Dingwall, CBE, Executive Chairman of Trinity, commented:"We are extremely pleased with the performance during the period and the ongoing progress across our portfolio of assets. We are focussed on further maximising profitability and cash flow while generating increasing returns for shareholders and look forward to further updating the market with unaudited numbers for 2017 in early March."
Lady Jennifer
25 Jan 2018
Debt? Yes of course! It's an Oiler, but..... Total debt (excluding tax losses to carry forward for years) is in the region of only £10M and looks set to be paid down this year -- including the Credit Loan Notes which would convert at 6p after end 2019. However, with the management "Significantly Incentivised" to pay them down rather than convert the question is When rather than If..........I Quote.........Quoting from Whitman Howard Report: "Whilst the CLN may act as an overhang for some newinvestors (it would dilute our RENAV from 32p to 25p if it converts),management have guided that they are committed to paying it down preconversion or looking at alternative financing options. "At that event last year in London, Bruce was asked why the shares are so cheap...TRIN is "Bruised Fruit" was the reply.So, when does TRIN stop being bruised fruit and start to be an attractive investment?Right now in the Oil markets there is a clear re-evaluation going on as to what is an "appropriate" price....appropriate meaning sustainable...the glut (as was) pointed toward a lower for longer pricing paradigm. It seems that this is not sustainable...I point you towards 8 simple supply and demand factors:1 Shale has to run to stand still...for every one good well they need 2 wells to replace it with flow that drops rapidly2 Mature oil fileds (circa 35 mln barrels a day of supply) are declining annually at 6-8% with next to no spend on improving them3 Replacement rates last year were 11%...world replaced 11% of what we used with new supply4 Is OPEC compliance so high because it is actually fairly close to peak production for many of its members?5 Shale business model is not looking good (Cheap financing wont go on and on)6 Shale wells are expensive...and labour intensive...and pollutant7 Geopolitical risks are not going away and the market has been very complacent about this8 Global demand is being understated by the EIA and IEATRIN's journey sits with this backdrop...oil is hunting around for its optimum level that is sustainable for purchasers and sustainable for producers. 40's wasn't appropriate, 50's probably isn't, 60's - 70's may very well be.....or not? We will see.Meanwhile TRIN quietly rolls on in a great year of opportunity...the balance sheet is repairing. Bruising is healing.The market is seeing what is going on with oil and rubbing its "but what about electric cars now" and "lower for longer" eyes as it realises that all the journalistic huffing and puffing isn't going to change the infrastructure that has taken years to build...23,000 man hours of labour per barrel of oil...hard to replace...the world needs an incentive...clue is that is NOT lower for longer...it is higher forever as price of extraction runs higher...until the world is forced off oil.What if nobody buys TRIN during such a period of higher for longer oil prices? Then...we are a cash cow for all holders with massive growth of cash flow: further growth, very strong balance sheet and dividends.The truth will out...it always does: Cash cow, Great management, Great industry, discipline on costs, strong balance sheet, no nonsense approach to performance, great assets in an arena that cannot be lower for longer...I am in no hurry for the share price to move. I am in a hurry for a quiet.........fundamental driven re-rate through the numbers. MR Market can be greedy or fearful in the process...Number driven re-rates are much more satisfying than the agony and ecstasy (think Bitcoin at an extreme) of greed driven baseless share price moves. (Gabriel - LSE)
Lady Jennifer
25 Jan 2018
Last Presentation Trinity Exploration & Production (TRIN) at Sharesoc growth seminar November 2017Watch and listen carefully as there is much to be found in these words.[link]
Lady Jennifer
25 Jan 2018
Trin's Profit Margin 'Nicked' from elsewhere.....At $66 oil and with taking off SPT (average 22%) leaves us with $54 a $24 per barrel profit. At hopefully a conservative 2850 bopd prudcution rate that is $2m per month profit. Refute these numbers if you disagree but valuation here is exceptional imo.
Lady Jennifer
25 Jan 2018
Re: Lady Jen Hmmmmm....That takes me back a bit.I once had the 'pleasure' of having two 'pleasing young men' walk across a packed lunch room at Poly whilst serenading me with that song.Regarding your sma's I would dump the 14, 20 & 28 which could be picked up by Bollingers set at 20, 2 and add in an sma at 89 which I find to be Very helpful.
MikeyAdmin
24 Jan 2018
Re: Lady Jen [link]
MikeyAdmin
24 Jan 2018
Re: Lady Jen Hi Jen. [link] charts doesn't show a Gap were yours does as it shows high & low tails on the two candles so they cover the your Gap. Have you got your chart set to one day or what ?IMO you'd be better off using the free end of day charts Prorealtime as they are clearer and more precise plus they have loads of tools to use if one knows how to use them. I don't know so I only need & use the 14, 20, 28, 50 & 200sma's and an RSI set at 30--70. If it pops through the 30 its over sold & time to buy and through the 70 its over bought and normally time to sell, but as stocks can still continue climbing one has to check other signals before selling, but in any case, after a stock taps or goes through the RSI top or bottom, and if it starts to come out of the 70 or 30 its definitely time to sell or buy.Below 30 with the RSI while I may not catch the bottom I can and will buy at any time because it will rebound at some time.. But over the 70 as GKP has proved on more than one occasion, it get more difficult and being an investor type in GKP I am too involved in the blasted stock, heyhum With GKP at the moment the 2nd Amendment News is imminent IMO so even though its overbought its a hold Anyway I'm waiting for 14--14.2 as my start point for a buy, but it may go lower so I hoping for further signs. So far the 14sma is moving down which will be followed by the 20 then possible the 28 and possibly the 50sma. But finding the rhythm Never never never buy with your heart into any stock like TRIN as if you miss a low another will come round again. Instead its best to watch and if it has one finds its trading pattern then you can catch the bottom. And if anyone posts a buy, check you chart, look for an expectancy rise and what possible News is on its way, and if nothing shows then stick to a set of principles and keep your powder dry for another day. Buy Low Sell High and remember, stocks are not love objects they are to make money from so IF you can beat the Bank you have won. The Market is a hard unsympathetic mistress and she will take your hard earn profit away just as quick as she shows it you . . . so take profit when it comes and don't be greedy trying to get more. Work out what you need to be able to make a profit, 5% tax + Brokers fees two ways + your stake and write it down, 3% to 10% profit is better than nothing . . . any more is pure luck which won't happen every time so take the risk at your own peril. Bygum, I do enjoy trying to beat the Market and winning feels even better. If you work try then try and check in pre 8am for news and lunchtime if possible o see whats happening and remember you can always set limit Buys and Sells and again, do not be greedy. 16p is a hard pill but you can get it back . . . I'll tell you when and what to do when the time is right. Ciao for now.
MikeyAdmin
23 Jan 2018
Re: Lady Jen Hi Jen. If you use Charts then watch for the RSI (at the bottom of the screencast) to move below the 30 line as that's a Buy signal. I'll buy some when the price hits around 14 to 14.20 which if I am right should be around Friday give or take a day[link] a tight sod I use "prorealtimes" end of day charts which are free.I work on the principle of buy low sell in profitThe charts help me time my Buys and not being greedy I sell when I'm profit or when good News arrives, without being bothered at catching the high to get max profit.Accept for GKP I don't do the Investor thing as I play shares for profit, which if its better then 3% then I've beaten what I can get in the Bank. When GKP is sold then I'll retire into the shadows and quietly do my own thing. Laters. Mike [link]
Lady Jennifer
23 Jan 2018
Re: Lady Jen An interesting read for a background.....[link]
Lady Jennifer
22 Jan 2018
Re: Lady Jen Thanks Mikey.I thought I saw similarities to GKP, but this time it is revenue positive, debt is coming down, drills planned H2 and I think it's worth around 35 to 50p at todays figures.
MikeyAdmin
22 Jan 2018
Re: Lady Jen [link] above link was stopped by 3i for inappropriate language the first time I tried to post it. Lets hope this goes through
MikeyAdmin
22 Jan 2018
Lady Jen Close.......16.02Open.......16.00 . . . . . No UT trade 1st Trade @ 16.0001p . . OTHigh........16.0001 . . . 081:20 . . OTLow.........15.55 . . . . . 11:59:10Full248,065------394,6346-------8Vols, 613,005 (16 trades) . . . ATs, 11,223 . . . (2 trades)Spread 15.55-------15.9LP, 15.73p5 DMM's on the BookSING . . . EMS 20,000CFEP . . .EMS 100,000SCAP . . .EMS 50,000WINS . . .EMS 50,000PEEL . . .EMS 20,000PEEL & SING deal only with AT's which are of low VolumeCFEP, SCAP & WINS deal with ATs, and OTsIMO Trinity is in what Charters call a Consolidation period were one grabs the lowest price possible and waits for News to take the Price up, at which time it's advisable to take profit. Trinity is in the same situation that GKP was in back in 2009 and with a lot of luck good Licences and Drilling Success like GKP did in 2009 one can hopefully make money. So IMO its best to Buy the Lows and Sell the Highs created by any News Releases. If you don't fancy watching what is happening to your money, then, like any stocks taking the, erm, Investing route and holding through thick and thin can be risky ? ?
Nice to Michu
04 Jan 2018
Re: Almost time to buy the old hedging contract in place til march is still a bit of a drag but this is a buy sub 17p imho.. it has started the year nicely too.. but thats after a significant retrace from 20p at back end of 2017.. 20p doable again in not too distant future I hope.. and if WTI averages north of $55 in 2018 perhaps this could get north of 30p sometime this year
