Lady_Jennifer
25 Jun 2018
Just my luck I had always thought they would be cleared, though it looked a bit tight, but the real problem was likely to be raising more cash to catch up with Touchstone who are producing loads just next door…
Lady_Jennifer
25 Jun 2018
Very quite here? I think that the iii site was always a bit quiet for TRIN but there’s a Cavebear (hibernating and thinking) Just my luck …
cavebear
25 Jun 2018
Just my luck Got it - hadn’t read the RNS sufficiently closely. Although it may always have been likely the the CLN would be repaid before the conversion date, this removes what was otherwise a potentially nasty overhang…
Lady_Jennifer
25 Jun 2018
Just my luck Yes! Most of the CLNs are converted at 15p rather than 6p which is probably a good thing considering the dilution and effect on the sp that a 6p conversion would have and then still needing funds to “push forwardâ€. The balance is the 0.9M you mentioned which will be paid from proceeds of the placing.
Jack_Diamonds
25 Jun 2018
Very quite here? I think the fund raise today is good news (apart from the 15p subscription price). At least existing Shareholders have the option to take 10.2M shares at the same price !! I think the Loan Note holders knew that TRIN could repay their Notes before 10/01/19, so the conversion at US0.08125 was never on the cards. It’s a vote of confidence that the Loan has been swapped for 32.7M of shares at 15p. The outstanding value of $0.9M is being repaid in cash. I also like the idea that the BIR & MEEI loan of $4.6M is being settled and that the Directors have put in $2.9M So Debt Free with a Cash Balance of $18.5M to support the accelerated drilling. Good to hear that the 2 infill wells drilled in Q1 have produced an average 142 bopd in their first 21 days. More news in 2nd week of July on Q2 performance. Jack
cavebear
25 Jun 2018
Just my luck Does this action eliminate the Convertible Loan Notes entirely? The RNS states: “to repay approximately US$ 0.9 million , being the total amount of principal and accrued interest owed pursuant to the terms of the Loan Notes which have not been converted at the Issue Price as part of the Fundraising;†So the balance has been converted as part of this exercise - right?
Lady_Jennifer
25 Jun 2018
Just my luck Definitely a good choice. I too am hurting, having just bought a few more before a 3.6p drop, but the price seems to be steadying a bit now and should rise again “before too long†There is much benefit to come from this move… The Board believes that the Company is now ideally positioned to benefit from increased production and an improved oil price, with incremental onshore production growth able to deliver higher-margin operating earnings. Whilst the primary focus of the Fundraising is on the onshore portfolio, the Board believes that the Company’s East Coast Assets offer a significant opportunity to deliver a step-change in production levels in the medium term. (!!) In addition to accelerating the onshore programme, the Fundraising will also provide Trinity with the necessary capital resources to allow revision of the Trintes drilling plan and the TGAL Field Development Plan, (!!) to develop a phased approach focused on reducing technical risk and the funding requirement to optimise results. Have you read the new presentation? True, 15p is a bit of a shock - especially just after I just bought some more - but this Can Not be a bad thing for the company. Debt Free 6 months early. • Low risk Onshore double digit production growth from near continuous drilling programme (news flow) • Potential access to State-owned existing 3D Seismic database could unlock --------More efficient high grading of locations --------Use of horizontal drilling --------Delivery of initial production rates of between 2-6x current --------Resulting in significantly enhanced economics/paybacks • Government-led onshore and nearshore bid round expected in Q3 2018 • Acquisition opportunities arising • Substantial net cash position post raise – debt free balance sheet • Pending fiscal reform: Supplementary Petroleum Tax • Potential sale of West Coast assets (discussions ongoing) LJ
Krayl
25 Jun 2018
Just my luck Over the weekend I had decided to sell my holding at a small profit as the price was drifting down, then on Monday morning there is the news of the placement and the price plummets. I still think this has good potential and is a buy at this level, so I guess I am hanging on to my holding.
Jack_Diamonds
22 Jun 2018
Very quite here? You would expect more chatter on here, considering the level of “Client†holdings stated in the Accounts to 31 Dec 2017. Hargreave Lansdown Asset Management (clients) 8.29%… 23,418,425 Interactive Investor Trading Limited (clients) 6.57%…18,554,686 Looking at some comparisons, TRIN average bopd in 2017 was 2,519 (although Q4 average was 2,777). The WTI realised in 2017 was $48.60, a discount of 4.54% from the $50.91 for the period. Q1 2018 the average bopd was 2,721 but the WTI average for the period was $65.15. Even at an 8% discount I get a WTI realised figure of $59.94 which is a 23% increase on 2017. The oil hedge for 2018 on the first 25,000 bls per month had a cap of $59.80 * 75,000 = $4,485,000 plus the remainder at $59.94 (after allowing a generous 8% discount) = $10,182,867 (2,721 * 90 days less 75,000 = 169,890 bls * $59.94) I can see during Q1 cash increased by $400,000 to $12.20M after repaying $1.7M to BIR & MEEI. With the higher WTI realised I can see BIR & MEEI fully repaid by Q3. Unless of course they scale back on these repayments and concentrate on the Convertible Loan repayments first. The Convertible Loans issued on 11/01/17 can be fully paid up by 10/01/19 without the loan holders being able to convert, so it seems sensible to repay these with the associated interest before this date. The remaining 5 years allow a conversion at 12.3 shares per $ (Ouch!). I think the current cash inflow should settle both liabilities, especially as current average WTI pre discount for Q2 is $67.55. I wonder if the two infill wells drilled in Q1 have contributed to Q2 production. I guess the next update will confirm ? Am I missing something ? Are there any valid reasons to avoid TRIN ? Jack
acsatix
15 May 2018
sitting on a current P/E of 3 if we say we make 30$ netback per barrel, at 3000 bpd we get about 90K$ cash profit/free flow a day.this equates to about 32m$/yr.in USD the cyurrent cap is about 100 m... this means we have a P/E = 3what is the normal P/E for a small company like this one in the oil sector? of course 15 P/E is not realistic as there is a lot of risk premiun but can we say at least 9 P/E so would this not be properly values at 75p once the uncertainty on debt repoayments are lifted this year? any dilution in sight?
Nice to Michu
02 May 2018
Re: very nice rise here continues from memory they were tied into a hedging contract that expired recently that was more interested in guarding against downside than participating in large PoO rises and so, given that PoO has performed very well indeed in last 6 months now, their results to around now might not be close to as good as they could have been imho Lady Jennifer.. hence my selling down some. Towards balance, they are now in a better upside participating hedging contract which is great for forward guidance ..and the market is supposed to be somewhat forward looking.. although the still reasonably low level of oiler s/p's generally has me wondering somewhat about that.
Lady Jennifer
02 May 2018
Re: very nice rise here continues This seems to be one that is worth hanging on to your remaining and trading a little as it goes.Don't forget that we have the full y/e results out quite soon which will have some impact on the 'commentators' shortly followed by the next quarterly update with further details on how much tax debt has been paid down...
Nice to Michu
01 May 2018
very nice rise here continues indeed this has gone higher, quicker than I guessed it might ... and I do now regret starting selling down 6 odd p ago - by 2p apart increments and thankfully still have half almost my original position here and fortunately my average price is about half current s/p - so very thankful for this very tasty rise ... well done to all fellow holders and may this rise go on and on 
nice info sharing too , not least from Lady Jennifer.. thanks..
Lady Jennifer
27 Apr 2018
Re: Trin's Profit Margin Also pilfered.....Thoughts collated as at 12/04/2018, as ever DYOR!2017 Numbers:Operating Profit: $11 mlnOperating Margin: 24.3%Consolidated Break even for 2017: $30.9 a barrelReserves:Management's estimate of 2P reserves as at the end of 2016 was 21.3 mmbbls.Group 2C contingent resources are estimated to be 21.1 mmbbls.The Group's overall 2P plus 2C volumes are therefore 42.3 mmbbls.Reserve outlook statement from the company (16th April 2018): "Trinity's booked onshore reserves only reflect wells identified and budgeted, as opposed to the full well inventory potential across Trinity's extensive acreage position, and the benefit of this subsurface work will be reflected in Trinity's end 2017 reserves."Core NAV as calculated by Whitman Howard: 29PRisked Exploration NAV (RENAV): 33P31/12/2017 --> 31/03/2018Last known Company announced BOPD: 2,777 -> 2,721Last known cash Balance: $11.8 mln -> $12.2 mlnLast known amount due to BIR and MEEI: $5.9 mln -> $4.2mlnLast known net debt position: $0.1 mln -> $0This is the Forecast profitability profile of TRIN at 3000 BOPD:Main unknown is the Petrotrin discount applied.The numbers are forward looking to 2019:OIL PRICE / PROFITABILITY (Millions) / P.E. RATIO (***23 Pence share price***)49 / $15.6 / 5.850 / $7.9 / 10.3751 / $8.5 / 9.6552 / $9.2 / 9.0253 / $9.7 / 9.28---64 / $15.4 / 5.9165 / $15.7 / 5.7666 / $16.1 / 5.6267 / $16.5 / 5.4868 / $16.9 / 5.3569 / $17.3 / 5.2370 / $17.7 / 5.1171 / $18.1 / 5.0072 / $18.6 / 4.89Catalysts:Efficient executionOil PriceAsset revisionsProgress on TGALFiscal incentives with possible overhaul of SPT*increased awareness & consolidation in TrinidadRealisation that Co is undervalued*SPT is the step tax that kicks in when oil is sold at 50.01 or above for a 3 month period. Tax is 22% and is visible in the numbers stated above. Why may this get overhauled? T&T have said they intend to. T&T now levy 12.5% against gas (89% of T&T Barrel of oil equiv output). This started on 1st January. Now that it is in place it paves way for politicians to overhaul SPT as advised by the IMF last year. The SPT overhaul should see an increase in productivity from Oil producers in the region, which in turn helps Petrotrin (who produce 40-45,000 BOPD). This oil is then put through their refinery. Capacity is 140,000 BOPD through this refinery (Trinidad producing circa 70,000 BOPD) and therefore Petrotrin imports Oil to make this worthwhile, WHICH has a negative knock on effect on Trinidad's currency. Management stated position on SPT is that it is not a question of if, but when...If SPT's effects were ameliorated for TRIN, then it would have the following effect on profitability:65 dollar oil / $26.83 mln annual free profitability / P.E. ratio: 3.44The share price would in theory jump by 20+P in order to maintain the PE ratio.Risks:Oil Price falling hardFiscal Regime in TrinidadOperational setbacksFunding around CLN:CLN details…$7.7 mln payback latest date January 2019 post all MEEI/BIR repayments If not paid back then holders can convert to equity @ 6P No Trinity staff members or on the Exec hold CLNs and the stated company aspiration/expectation is that they do not convert.Price targets (all given with Oil sub $50):WH 33PCantors 38PMalcy: 42P
Lady Jennifer
17 Apr 2018
Re: News.... Q1-Update - in case you haven't seen it yet.....[link]
