Hardboy
02 Jun 2017
Re: Election jitters It could be; but if the worst did happen, it could be good for contractors. The old Nationalised industries were not known for their close attention to costs. It could be some profit taking/general liquidating shares ahead of the election, or just markets getting jittery with the lack of news. I find markets are impatient; and do like constant attention to maintain strength.
Muzzletoff
02 Jun 2017
Election jitters Thoughts of Chairman Corbyn and comrades nationalising Railways are perhaps undermining Tracsis shares?
Muzzletoff
30 May 2017
Re: Price Drop In fairness to Tracsis they have said that they expected the fairly conservative rail market for software adoption to be a slow burn. But it would be very nice if they could show further progress, as that could pull back some of the lost momentum of shareholder interest.I would like their core high margin rail related business in the UK to perk up for the 2nd half, as that plus Ontrac is a substantial contributor to profits when its on form.
Hardboy
30 May 2017
Re: Price Drop "Sorry if I have waffled on!"No apology needed. Your waffle is better than most Discussion Board contributors' succinct posts. When I originally discovered Tracsis, I bought in because of the potential of their existing businesses; so I am disappointed if they have to buy to grow. Condition based maintenance is a great market. What happened to the pilots in North America? there's been precious little said about that. They did say at the Interim stage H2 would be significantly better than H1, so the next update should be positive.
Muzzletoff
30 May 2017
Re: Price Drop Hi HardboyI stand corrected. You are right. 31st July is year end. So two months to go.The current price action is not encouraging, but on pitifully small volumes.My general feeling, or more accurately worry, is that Tracsis is going through a bit of a wobble on trying to hit its profit targets, but that does not change its fundamental characteristics.However, all acquisitive companies face the point where acquiring companies (or profits as I prefer to think about it), becomes more expensive as you go on. In the end you are bidding up your own market. Tracsis have tried to mitigate this e.g. in Ontrac, where they have created an earn-out basis, based on future profit potential for increasing the acquisition payment. Which is fairly sensible, but does not ultimately stop the profit progression dropping off after the earn-out period has been hit.I think in part this is why they are trying the 'cheaper' route of investing. But that has its own dangers, and probabilities of success/failure. Tracsis may be slightly trapped by its own sensible criteria of not wanting to materially dilute by issuing shares, but not having enough cash generation to buy seriously profitable businesses.To get out of this requires a boost from its core businesses to show they have growth to give back momentum to cash and its share price, and I have a feeling that things are slightly flattish at the moment.Needless to say that I would love to be proved to be completely wrong in the next two months.Sorry if I have waffled on!
Hardboy
26 May 2017
Re: Price Drop Muzzletoff,I can always rely on you to give a response and add some sense to things; but I think you're a bit ahead of yourself: "they are only a month away from year end results"Year end is the end of July, so we are 2 months away from that; the results are usually in November, so further away still. I should really check the exact facts, which I have not done, but the impression I get is the directors and senior managers are not paid THAT much, and are generally youngish; but they do get healthy share awards, so it's inevitable that they will sell some from time to time to get a bit extra liquid cash. It's always disappointing when directors sell, but I guess I accept it in these circumstances.
Muzzletoff
26 May 2017
Re: Price Drop HardboyI think when illiquid shares lose their upward momentum, you can be on a lose-lose bet, as the market maker can just take the price lower by extending the spread to shake out some shares, and on the buy side it does not materially go up because the market can use weak small rallies to sell into.The Directors probably can't or shouldn't sell because they are pretty near to a close period, as they are only a month away from year end results, and could have sensitive inside financial information? If they were selling I would expect the share price to drop a lot further.I think we are in slightly nervous mode with Tracsis. If they feel they are going to miss their yea-end numbers they would probably be close to realising that by now. Last year they issued a trading statement in August. Its anyone's guess when they will do it this year.Fingers crossed!
Hardboy
25 May 2017
Re: Price Drop The share price is just beginning to drift lower again on no news. It could be 3 months before the next official update, so a juicy contract win would be useful in the next few days/weeks/
Hardboy
12 May 2017
Re: Price Drop When I've studied volumes closely, a large daily volume is often followed a couple of days later with details of a director selling some of his shares. I think maybe they give their directors too many shares.
Muzzletoff
12 May 2017
Price Drop Suspect the market maker is trying to shake the tree to get a few shares out.There seemed to be a large volume of buys the other day, but very little volume since.
Muzzletoff
05 Apr 2017
Re: Today's News Hi HardboyThe Ceo talked about the potential of developing some people counting technology on video.It could be good.But.. in terms of acquiring companies with earnings it hasn't progressed anything much, so it is seed investment money. I think they get a 20%+ stake as part of the investment.They didn't particularly highlight that their investment in Nutshell which was due to be increased by £500K if they hit their business targets, wasn't increased because they didn't hit their business targets. This was in the notes to the accounts. So in one sense you can say they made a sensible condition. On the other its a bit of a punt for which we may never see any return.There is always the danger these investments get written off further down the line, or require further investment as part of a funding round.Unlike their acquisitions there is no criteria for the sort of returns they are looking at. So I wouldn't like the board to be making too many of these, unless it figures as part of their R&D spend.
Hardboy
04 Apr 2017
Today's News Sounded like a good deal, with good synergies between the businesses. I'm surprised there wasn't a positive effect on the share price.
Passive Investor
29 Mar 2017
Re: Stockopedia interview This is the link - [link]
Muzzletoff
28 Mar 2017
Stockopedia interview Now available on the Paul Scott -Small Cap Value Report section of the site
Muzzletoff
23 Mar 2017
Re: Interims Its good to see something of an upward lurch in the share price after an overdone fall. Hope we hang onto the gains as there had been some evidence of increased buying in the lead up to the full interims release. I take some comfort from the increased cash on the balance sheet which is the acid test of trading, when nowadays so much increased profit is reported by companies before 'adjustments', to provide a flattering comparison.The second half remains the next important phase of performance, and we only have three months to go on that. I note that they are quite keen to state on a number of occasions that that the 2nd half will be considerably stronger than the first half, which is a bit of a truism, as rarely are two trading periods equally divided. I suspect they are being guarded about the outlook for the year, as a couple of divisions sound as if they have extended sales cycle issues in the 1st half, and one division seems to have seen good performance.This is what they actually say about outlook:'The Group remains focussed on delivering full year numbers, and as communicated previously, the outcome for the full year remains subject to the timely conversion of new sales for our various software products and services.Our second half trading is also supported by the improvement in gross margin initiatives that commenced at the start of the financial year, and the natural H2 seasonality that is inherent across the Group’s operations.Management is confident that the focus on process and margin improvement puts the business on a solid footing.Our core target markets of rail technology and traffic and transport data services remain buoyant with good growth drivers and Tracsis remains well positioned for the future.'This is what they said at the same time last year:'Given a good start to the financial year, the Board is confident the Group is well placed to deliver full year results in line with market expectations.'So a moderation of tone overall. Fingers crossed some of those sales cycle deals close out in the next three months.
