psyche100
28 Jan 2016
Re: Share price movement The RM acquisition is discussed in part 2 of the interview at 14.40. JW admits that RM's revenue recognition was less than prudent but claims that there is a good record of RM's debtors turning into cash. The acquisition price was not based on a multiple of previous profits but on its future potential.They discuss TRAK's cash flow in part 1 at 28.55. JW says that for years 13/14 + 14/15 FCF was £0.951m on PBT on £2.08m. I can see the PBT figure in the 2014 annual report (£0.396m) and the 2015 figure (£1.702m) in the recent interims. Can anyone help me on how to get to his figures for FCF from the accounts?TW's point about capitalising development costs (£0.862m in 2014/15) does not seem to have been raised in the interview.
paccamac
28 Jan 2016
Re: Share price movement I think there is a lot of very wishful thinking here and people seem to be missing the point. Knocking TW for his obvious venom does not suddenly make TRAK a good bet.TW may be a basket case but he raises some serious allegations which for my money have not been answered by company management.In particular the RM acquisition was, and remains, a complete basket case. The company is clearly massively loss making by any normal accounting definition (a debtor book well in excess of 1 year turnover) and will be a big drain on TRAK cash. For Paul Scott to dismiss this is completely daft and he seems to have lost his objectivity here perhaps due to his own long position. For those in possession of the FinnCap broker forecasts you should knock at least £2M off the PBT line. In spite of what Watkins said in the Paul Scott Interview there is no way that a revised rev rec for Route Monkey was included in the current forecasts and as it stands this business will destroy both cashflow and profitability for TRAK this year and next.
zulu principle2
28 Jan 2016
Re: Share price movement Nice to see sn up day
Gus1065
27 Jan 2016
Re: Share price movement Link to the Paul Scott interview a couple of days ago with John Watkins of TrakM8 if you are interested. Quite a few Q&A on the Route Monkey acquisition.[link]
iridos
27 Jan 2016
Re: Share price movement One should bear in mind that QPP was already under investegation and had been for some time when TW contacted the authorities. He has misquoted the letter which he has received from them and is trying to make out that only his prompt action caused them to become involved and helped to warn investors off. This is not what happened at all, as is clear from the letter. He jumnped on a bandwagon which set off. Still one has to make a living somehow I suppose.Also some of his comments about the monkey takeover by TrakM8 do not bear too close an examination. Search as ye may he trumpets, there is no sign anywhere that the monkey company filed its accounts. Of course they had not, because those that were published had not been audited and the company made it clear that they were unaudited results. Surely TrakM8 did proper due diligence before even making an offer. They wanted the manufacturing facility and they got it. TW 's comments can sometimes be taken with a pinch of salt, especially when he laces them with obscenties. Let us hope that this is the case here.
cassash
27 Jan 2016
200dma if breaks down through 200dma next stop around 171p
Gus1065
24 Jan 2016
Re: Share price movement Hi Psyche - If you haven't already seen it, you might find the attached investor presentation from the company of interest:-[link] it pre-dates the Track Monkey acquisition, (video is from Spetember 2015) a fair bit of time is spent on their strategy and how high capex/no dividend is seen as the necessary price of product development/market share build up/ rapid growth. Also, if you have access to his twitter feed, I believe Paul Scott is interviewing the CFO tomorrow and will be posting the interview on the qualitysmallcaps website in due course. [link] would imagine TW's comments/"bear case" will be discussed in some detail.Gus.
psyche100
24 Jan 2016
Re: Share price movement Does anyone have any thoughts about the substance of what TW has said?For me the most serious question mark he raises is that despite growth in PBT, 'real' cash flow is poor because so much has been spent on capex and, more worryingly, on capitalising development expenditure. The latter of course flatters the PBT figure so is only allowed by the accounting standards 'in strictly defined circumstances'.The paragraph pertaining to this from the last interims reads: 'We continue to invest in human resources and fixed assets. Our capex of £0.5m has been high during this period but we believe we have now completed some key short term investments in order to prepare forstronger growth levels. The IT investment in customer support and device management has significantly improved the service levels to our customers. A second new automated pcb assembly line has been installed, with a number of automated test processes built into the line for improved quality assurance. Our engineering teams have been further expanded to meet the growing opportunities that we have. Total investment in research and development in the period was in excess of £1 million and we have capitalised £0.58m of these costs. The benefits of these developments continue to be realised in the range of newsolutions described above.'
zulu principle2
22 Jan 2016
Re: Share price movement I am glad no one is s1agging tw off as many did on qpp board. I really like this stock and dont agree with him. He did a lot of people who heeded his warning over qpp a massive favour. He was prepared to face then in court. He does deserve a lot of credit for that.Who bought in this week at 220 ish. I got a few but not many. If you did well done.I think there maybe further opportunities
David123456
22 Jan 2016
Re: Share price movement I think iridos' comments on TW are about right. I occasionally read his commentary because an alternative point of view can be useful for provoking thought and challenge. His commentary on TRAK however, was based on historic data.The SP will be determined by future performance however, so I am far more interested in a forecast PER than a historic one, and if management demonstrate the benefits of the Route Monkey acquisition and deliver on forecast earnings.
kevlarr bandini
21 Jan 2016
Re: Share price movement It looks like Paul Scott is still confident on Trak and that Tom Winnifrith is wrong on this one. Paul Scott says its a nice buying opportunity.[link]
iridos
21 Jan 2016
Re: Share price movement He is very opinionated, tries to justify slagging companies off, sometimes very justifiably and with some success. He makes his living off not mincing his words and seems proud of his ability to keep his libel lawyers busy.
staffai
21 Jan 2016
Re: Share price movement ............no
Ripley94
20 Jan 2016
Re: Share price movement Any thoughts on this winnifrith fellow. ?
Ripley94
20 Jan 2016
Re: No need to panic TW Really slags it as a slam dunk sell on his S.P Blog Today.Maybe that helped the big fall today ?
