Our Haven
05 Mar 2018
Reporting the numbers Market most have been expecting worse than these numbers or they believe that the cost cutting will deliver after the merger. Don’t like the new name.
thirty fifty twenty
13 Feb 2018
at 80p great acquisiton and chart strength I've spent a lot of time analysing this TNI acquisition of N&Sand concluded that it creates a lot of value.it is very hard to know how to value TNI due to the moving parts - declining industry, pension deficit (PD), debt, good dividend, share buy backs.i have 5 basic reasons to feel there might be share price strength from here.1 - analysis of acquisition2 - discounted cash flow3 - Banks, Pension Trustees, Pension regulator4 - interpretation of mgt5 - technical analysis of chart1. the basics of the deal are simple enough. TNI is buying N&S on the same multiple of its own valuation. N&S is arguably a poor quality business but it has a broader spread of revenues, including digital, and a much lower PD. The big figure is £20m of savings. It is logical there will be saving by merging 2 businesses and the value of these savings i estimate to be 35p a share!2. i have modelled TNI and N7S using discounted CASH flows. Fairly simplistically. I assumed that sales would decline faster than the recent rates, and i assumed that costs would only decline at half the rate of sales. For 6 years TNI has managed to reduce costs as quickly as sales so i see both of these assumptions as conservative.This model shows that TNI will hit zero profitability in 2022! No-one doubts that TNI is in decline but i don't here much talk that they will not be profitable in 4 years time. So again this seems conservative assumptions. The sum total of the CASH flows in this scenario is £600m which covers the current equity valuation, debt and PD with room to spare - i.e. it implies the current equity value is undervalued by about 10p a share.Interestingly when one adds in N&S and the £20m cost saving - this extends the 'life of TNI' by 2 years! And adding the sum of the declining CASH flows is £900m which with the debt from acquisition, the payments to N&S Pension, and N&S pension implies the current equity value is undervalued by about 40p a share (on the increased equity base post acquisition)so this model may or may not be accurate but it doe again imply that the acquisition adds 30p to the value of TNI compared to pre acquisition.3. Having just been repaid in full the £400m from a few years back the banks have finaced the majority of this deal and lent TNI more money - surely this implies they are comfortable with the future CASH flows of the business.The Pension trustees for all 6 pension schemes involved have given approval of the deal. I compare this to the delays at Coats and the post Carillon world. They have approved the deal and they will also allow TNI to increase its dividend and make share buy backs and a return of capital (hidden further down the documents)Even the Pension regulator have given the deal its approval and also must feel that TNi has sufficient surpklus CASH flows to be allowed to pay dividends, buy back shares and plan a return of capital.4. Mgt were very confident at the analysts briefing. They have quoted £20m cost savings but have said that there are (quote) "very, very, comfortable" with that assumption.the iii article is the first to mention the assets being bought £300m of assets... now i don't know what exactly those are but there must be some surplus machines, buildings, land ... TNI is valued at 200m so 10m or 20m from asset disposlas is very significant to the share price.5. TNI share price has been volatile. not surprise - a fixed cost business in decline with high debt and high pension responsibilities. It has also been in decline for the last 3 years post the 2009 bounce from the 20p lows.The situation today though is critically changed.TNI revenues have held up better than forecast 5 years agoTNI mgt has demonstrated their ability to cut costsDebt (pre acquisition) was down to only £10m (from £400m 6 years back!)Pension liabilities have been partly insured, future rises have been capped and the global equity sell off last week, the UK comm
II Editor
13 Feb 2018
NEW ARTICLE: Stockwatch: Is near-8% yield a big risk or opportunity? "Is this £209 million small cap media group at a genuine turning point? Most charts show LSE:TNI:Trinity Mirror in a volatile downtrend from 234p in 2014 to a recent 66p low, but long-term followers know it has been volatile since a 20p range in ..."[link]
Human chromosome 8 gene jockey
04 Feb 2018
TNI/Express deal closing in [link]
Our Haven
22 Oct 2017
Re: Undervalued With the P/E of less than 5 any normal measure would say it is undervalued but of course the outlook is viewed as poor. However I think there is a long curve yet in TNI's value which, in holding this stock I hope to realise.
forwardloop
21 Oct 2017
Re: Undervalued Investors Chronicle has a fairly downbeat article on 13 Oct - Calculating the price of paid news, but states that Numis expects profits to fall about 10% to £120m in the yr to Dec 17 as inc digital revenues fail to offset dwindling Mirror subscriptions.@ mkt cap of £<230m that makes PE of <5
Our Haven
06 Oct 2017
Re: Undervalued Given that gilt yields have fallen since the last valuation of the pension scheme I would have to think the liabilities have grown.
corporate investor
06 Oct 2017
Re: Undervalued I reckon that about 80% of the phone hacking cases will be resolved by now, so the worst of phone hacking is over with a future liability of around £10 million only. I think the real issue depressing the shares may be the future pension liabilities. It would be interesting to see if they increase or decrease in the next accounts.
Our Haven
05 Oct 2017
Re: Undervalued I do hope so. Looking at the fundermentals as you do it must rise in value. However sentiment is still against this stock over the phone tapping scandal. Maybe financials will in time overcome sentiment but as the news on phone tapping goes rubbing on it will depress the price.
corporate investor
05 Oct 2017
Undervalued Trading at around 3.5 P/E, with a good yield, with share buyback, and it seems as recently reported by Daily Mail that the reduction of revenue from print sales is being offset by price increases and digital revenue then it would seem that Trinity Mirror is a bargain.
forwardloop
08 Sep 2017
info [link]
Our Haven
08 Sep 2017
Northern and Shell Now that they are looking to purchase 100% of Northern and Shell they will have to obtain shareholder approval. It could be a good deal but we will have to see the price. Sold for £125m in 2000. Any views?
bushwhacker
29 Aug 2017
Re: Pensions deficits - we are not alone There was also an article in the guardian saying 21 of the top 350 companies have a pension deficit greater than 10 % of the companies value.It also says that given life expectancy is now levelling so companies can plan better now.
forwardloop
29 Aug 2017
Pensions deficits - we are not alone [link]
thirty fifty twenty
26 Jun 2017
analysis pension deal at Coats The finalised deal at Coats shows what the regulator is willing to accept in a high profile case that has been in dispute for 3 years.The cash flows agreed , if a comparable deal was done at TNI, would leave lots of surplus CASH flow for increased divis and further buy backs.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLTNI is in my portfolio
