thirty fifty twenty
13 Oct 2017
at 48p MAJOR contract and cart break TMMG at 48p – the contract win for DTI is , I think, hugely significant.TMMG share price has been lowly rated for years not for the lack of profit growth, cash generating, debt reduction, or dividend increases!But because of worries re being a people business, the general quality for a small cap plc, the quality of earnings when CASH is regularly used to buy in growth.I think this contract puts these all to bed , and some….As a multi year contract, across multiple countries, which is of the highest profile (BREXIT for world’s 7th biggest economy!), it means that people will stay with the agency for the experience, it is organic growth rather than an acquisition, it is highly visible and its gives the company huge credibility. So I think it bats away investors previous concerns.What are the financials... well no update from the company yet but it is easy to play around with averages for conferences and get £1m to £2m per year – probably at the lower end of this range. Remember the agency Bray Leino, which has a 20 year growth record, which is c. 40% of TMMG t/o has said it is the most significant thing in their history! So it seems reasonable to assume it is significant.Much more so, I think it wil enable TMMG to pitch and convert to sales much more easily so their will be a significant halo affect. Other aspects… in the last 3 RNS’s TMMG has enthused about all the other agencies and their progress and opportunities – there is little mention of Bray Leino – so this is on top of current expectations.When TMMG announced their ‘growth scheme’ in March the CEO of Bray Leino got the highest level of incentive shares. I thought that was interesting because the salary of all the board members is pretty much the same some take it as salary, others as benefits but , aside from founder David Morgan, they are pretty much banded. – which is intentional to ensure equality amongst these different entrepeneurs. My view is that TMMG felt this contract was a possibility way back at the start of the year and created a ‘growth scheme’ which gave them reward if it was pulled off. At the time the share price hurdle of 75p seems ludicrous compared to the market price of 40p but I think now it gives an indication as to what potential they see in future contracts. And of course we don’t know what else they have yet to announce.. the latest RNS was stuffed full of optimism for future pitches.And the chart….There is a classic flag break, with volume, out of a growth trend going back to 2010 which predicts a price move to c.80p which was previous resistance. From this break out there is no resistance until that point though I think 50p will be a sticking point for some technical analysis.The catalyst for a major move would be an RNS from the company. Paul Scott owns the shares so I think any positive RNS will be highlighted through him and also ST is likely to update positively.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLTMMG is in my top 5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty
21 Sep 2017
at 44p results good and mgt confident so another set of solid results from TMMG,and strong words of confidence not just about H2 but about grwth next year as well.CASH flow remians strong and debt is below 1.5t ebitda.EPS will be close to c.8p next year (based on 10% growth)and with further 10% divi increases it is almost becoming an income stock - LOLit does feel like there is a head of steam building in the share price,i thought these results might release the price from being range bound but not yet.that said if there was good press coverage this week or next could easily see the price nip up a couple of pennies, and ironically if that happened I think it would give more investors the confidence to buy based on the chart break out.time will tell.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLTMMG is in my portfolio
thirty fifty twenty
17 Aug 2017
at 44p head of steam building share price action over the last couple of months feels like a head of steam building...results are good, volume is high over the last 12 months,and recently its been easy to sell volume into a strong price...some-on eis very happy to buy up sahres at the moment.what has tipped me over the egde is the solid price movement from SIV, CMS + CAU,it just seems that there is a lot of positive price activity in the small marketing sector at the mo.my guess is some sort of corporate transactions that shows there is hidden value in these businesses.time will tell All IMHO, DYOR + BoLTMMG is in my portfolio
II Editor
02 Aug 2017
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thirty fifty twenty
25 Jul 2017
Re: at 40p another positive trading upda... hi BBindeed its has been stagnantover the last 3 years - but, for me, that's the attraction!!the super long term chart is still in an uptrend going back to the managment buy in in 2010,and the positive about the chart for the alst 3 years is that the support level of c.40p has held.So, as i see it, the bsuiness is still growing and developing,but not the chart is lagging slightly behind,it would now seem surprising that it would fall through that support at 40p (given the positive trading update), thus the most likely is a decent rise from the current position (say to 50p).it is always possible that rise becomes sustained if the market starts to take a liking to TMMG but i'd ride that wave if we get there.hope that makes sense!All IMHO, DYOR + BoLTMMG is in my portfolio
Boring Bernie
24 Jul 2017
Re: at 40p another positive trading update I agree with everything you say there TFT, apart from the chart pattern, which, even to someone who takes v little of any TA, looks a bit dull for the last few years i live in hope that the market will eventually recognise Mission as a good investment and will still console myself with the divi ( which got paid today ) until it, hopefully, does !
thirty fifty twenty
24 Jul 2017
at 40p another positive trading update so a strong trading update this morning with 10% + growth in H1, debt down and mgt happy for similar growth in H2.was surprised the shares only rose 1p but then againthe amrket is down 1% today.the low PE rating and low debt , with good growth record are all supported by a good chart pattern.it wont set the world alight but steady at this price.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLTMMG is in my portfolio (has been in and out for 7 years!)
Another Jacko
27 May 2017
Bought in I bought a few of these the other day after a friend suggested them to me. They look cheap to me and are generating good cash and the divi yield is reasonable.I would prefer it however if they stopped making acquisitions for a few years and sorted out the balance sheet, it is a bit light on tangible assets which I know is normal for this type of business but look at how Creston sorted out their balance sheet and they eventually got taken out.
thirty fifty twenty
24 Mar 2017
Mgt set target eps of 9p in 3 years The results from TMMG seems to be 'more of the same',increased sales, profit and eps.now they are putting some effort behind the divi with a 25% increased and a progressive divi in future - 5% + progressive is not too bad.TMMG have always been a little unloved with a low rating but this will gradually disipate with more years of good performance.I do think the market seems to have missed their 3 year targets released in the results...it does help explain why they wanted more shares at 75p!!TMMG fcst t/o growth of at least 5% p.a. for the next 3 years,and a big uplift in the margin from 11.5% to 14%we know the max debt is capped from their covenants so you can work this out to give EPS approaching 9p in 3 years timewhich is 40% + growth from today, I.e. 12% p.a. + 5% p.a. diviif that is achieved they will have increased EPS by 150% over 10 years,surely at that point mgt will get a better rating.I like their confidence for 2-17 and the fact that they have high visibility for growth in 2017.analyst expectations are for eps of 7p in 2017and a divi of 1.8pAll IMHO, DYOR + BoLTMMG is in my portfolio
Boring Bernie
23 Mar 2017
Re: From Edison Investment Research Can't disagree with what they're saying. Personally I think fair value for Mission would be in the range 55 to 65p, but I thought that when I bought in last year and the sp hasn't budged much. Plainly the market doesn't care diddly squat about what I think !Still, the divi's nice while I wait ...
whatsupnow
23 Mar 2017
From Edison Investment Research The mission continues to trade in a range of 38-47p, representing a substantial discount to other quoted marketing/comms businesses. The current price puts it on an FY17e EV/EBITDA of 4.4x, compared to the sector at 7.8x, a 44% discount. The size of this discount is difficult to justify given the earnings and dividend growth and the substantial improvement in the state of the balance sheet. Dated 23Mar17
thirty fifty twenty
22 Feb 2017
analysis at 41p of Growth Share Scheme I thought the GSS was a very interesting RNS this morning. After my analysis I’ve concluded that it is good news1 – there was no obligation to announce today but they have chosen to announce today 4 weeks before the FINALS which means that there are no bad news in the FINALS, and no lost, or wobbling clients in the pipeline. It also gives comfort that there are no surprises in the accounts. Basically it puts a floor under the price at 40p (otehrwise mgt would have waited until the bad news was out and issue the GSS at a lower price)2 – I think it also means that the directors view today’s price as relatively low i.e. they expect it to be higher after the FINALS 3 – regardless of any moral opinion it is an incentive for the directors to get the share price higher4 – it is a reasonably ‘fair’ scheme. As a shareholder I am giving away c.3p of my gain if I gain 34p from today. So at first glance, compared to yesterday I am 3p worse off, except that I think it means there is now a much better chance that the price will get to 75p because of the heavily geared incentive to management. And the is a HUGELY increased chance that the price will get much closer to that 75p (let’s say half way at 58p) compared to yesterday. So realistically if I bought today I have a decent chance of getting to 58p within 2 or 3 years – that is compound growth of 17% p.a. for 3 years (incl dividends). I think that is attractive upside when there is little downside. 5 – the total top mgt team own c.40% of the shares in TMMG so the argument that they are taking money away from us private investors is much diluted given that they are also 40% shareholders themselves. You might argue that then they didn’t need an extra incentive and indeed that is a very reasonable argument. But taking out the emotion it means that the total mgt team will be very incentivised to stay with the business and to retain their best clients, and that the board will now go on a route to improve investor perception of the company.Before today I thought a ‘fair price’ for TMMG was 55p over a 2 year period with a nice 4% dividend. However I also recognised that there were downside risks of client loses and some surprise. So today I see that a floor has been put under the price (there is little chance of major client losses in the near term) and now it is reasonably more certain that the FINALS, and in particular the outlook statement, will contain good news. In conclusion, TMMG still have a great recovery story since new mgt took charge in 2010, it is growing steadily (8% a year for 8 years), it is very lowly rated, it generates large amounts of CASH, there is a decent divi and the GSS gives a lot of comfort that 40p is now a floor to the share price and also gives optimism that the price could re-rate significantly as the businesses continues to grow over the next 2 years which is backed up by a positive price trend chart.. All IMHO, DYOR + BoLTMMG is in my portfolio
Cliff Peat
22 Feb 2017
Good for us and good for them? The value of agencies IMO is closely related to the quality and commercial effectiveness of their people. Traditionally the smart people often have left established businesses to set up on their own - and some have succeeded spectacularly.So keeping these key people on board and motivated is a good move.The RNS explains that the cost of the scheme is low compared to the overall uplift in shareholder value if and when the vesting level is reached (75p).There is still a figure north of £80m for "intangibles" shown on the consolidated balance sheet - which is higher than the total (book) equity value of £73m. From one point of view the business is still under-capitalised. If the award protects our "intangibles" then it seems a reasonable price to pay.As ever just opinion and interested to know what others think. DYOR.
Health Observer
19 Jan 2017
Re: Oh come on! I think investors are responding to "the growth share scheme" for the Directo
JimmyZoid
19 Jan 2017
Oh come on! What am I missing - Unspectacular growth lets say but still headline profit up to £7m with some exceptionals (yawn). Good dividend, reasonable growth, strong management team, falling debt BUT rubbish PE. Any insights gratefully welcomed
