Tullow Oil Live Discussion

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Beatley 10 Dec 2019

Overshoot to the downside? The announcement was definitely surprising, I was reviewing the RNS feed yesterday morning and knew it was going to carnage. The problem is, however good your research is you can’t plan for events like these were the company release bucket load of bad news at the same time. It shouldn’t happen with a company Tullow’s size and that’s where the problem lies. I do think they’re now a prime takeover target, yes a suitor might want to wait and get clarity on what’s happening with the assets, but if they wait they have the risk of the equity trending back upwards and the opportunity is gone. The product portfolio and huge Ugandan asset might see someone their look. Bonds had a worse day today, will be watching them closely.

Eadwig 10 Dec 2019

Overshoot to the downside? Beatley: My hopes are for a takeover, I have no real interest in Tullow turning themselves around I tried to get in for a trade this morning with a limit order @40p before the open but I went too low. @42p might have squeezed in in which case I would sold already and been happy to turn a tranche over for 5%+ in a single day. Have no interest in the company otherwise, except they seem to have a fantastic ability to destroy shareholder value in a very short space of time. As you say, if you treat shareholders badly and keep them in the dark - then release bad news - you’re much less likely to get a sympathetic hearing rom the markets. Small oilers seem to be particularly bad in this way I’ve noted over the years… I’d have thought TLW had got too big for that sort of junior AIM-level antic. Apparently not!

elliottsilverman 10 Dec 2019

@Beatley - agreed. A takeover would be welcome at this stage to try and recover some value more quickly ... wouldn't have much confidence in the remaining exec. An outfit like Total should have the coin and operate in most places Tullow do already... what price for a takeout?

Beatley 10 Dec 2019

Overshoot to the downside? My hopes are for a takeover, I have no real interest in Tullow turning themselves around. The corporate governance is terrible, they’ve kept shareholders in the dark with a lack of transparency and they’ve destroyed shareholder value. However, the equity trades at a massive discount to NAV, the bonds only shrugged yesterday, whilst the 70% drop based on only 5% of the shares being traded feels more like the market showing what happens when you essentially keep your shareholders in the dark. The question is, would institutional holders be so disillusioned with the company that they’d accept a low ball offer? No debt next year and only $300m in 2021, plenty of time to sort their act out.

Ripley94 10 Dec 2019

MisterHarry TLW… XXXX It finished Monday at 40p. ( -70% ) Slowley picking up this morning to 45p Plenty of time to pick up if I had waited for low.

Eadwig 10 Dec 2019

Overshoot to the downside? On radio 4 this morning they were saying it is now priced under the value of its assets and has no major debt due for a couple of years. May well be worth a punt on a rebound or even a take-over bid.

mcn2000 09 Dec 2019

Buy 145.39 Bought @ 43.44 instead… Gosh I was lucky…

Beatley 09 Dec 2019

Overshoot to the downside? Huge discount to NAV, even allowing for some right downs. Trades at less than 1xEBITDA with some highly sort after assets then could be sold if required and no covenant concerns. I’m in for a good chunk, average 49p, which sounds crazy in comparison to where its been.

elliottsilverman 09 Dec 2019

Seems a tad overdone in fairness, given they are still producing 70k+ barrels p.a. Think the debt is killing them ...they must be a takeover target at this stage - going to throw a few hundred quid at it to average down my 220p purchase price and hope someone comes in with even a lowball offer ... 125p anyone?

Ripley94 09 Dec 2019

MisterHarry TLW… XXXXX Well that was a mistake in hindsight ( two weeks ago ) bad RNS @ 7am and a drop of over 50%. Topped up @ 9.09am limit set @ 60p lifted strait away @ 58.88p ( always a bad sign ). Bottomed at 53.53 soon after. Pulled up a bit put another buy in same number @ 11.25 am for 55p lifted in minutes . Approx 47% deals .

elliottsilverman 09 Dec 2019

F**king hell?!!